What if Smaug Survived? | Tolkien Theory

"They will help one another!" With Gandalf's warning of a Smaug-Sauron alliance as a starting point, and using my usual weekly level of research, I've created a plausible scenario that sees Smaug survive, how Sauron could persuade the dragon to help, and the massive destruction that would result. There's some solid leads Tolkien gives us, as well as some guesses of my own. Let me know in the comments what you think would happen if Smaug the Terrible survived later into the Third Age!

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I Am Death - Tai91
Black Arrow - Paolo Puggioni
Gandalf and Thorin at Bree - Ted Nasmith
Sauron at Dol Guldur - WETA
Crowning of Aragorn - Inger Edelfeldt
Smaug the Destroyer - Ted Nasmith
Thorin Oakenshield - Matchack
Smaug - CK Goksoy
Attack on Dol Guldur - Angus McBride
The Battle of the Five Armies - Ozakuya
Orc Army - Melkir
Goblin King - Alan Lee
Gandalf in Moria - Donato Giancola
The Battle of Five Armies Map - Ares
Smaug - The Rising Soul
Erebor - Alan Lee
Smaug and the Orc Army - WETA
The One Ring - Magali Villeneuve
Council of Elrond - MySilverGreen
Lorien - Brothers Hildebrandt
Edoras - Bakarov
Minas Tirith at Dawn - Ted Nasmith
Galadriel - Livia De Simone
Galadriel (with vase) - Livia De Simone
Galadriel - Magali Villeneuve
Minas Tirith Beseiged - Alvaro C Escudero
Sauron - Johnny Slowhand
Smaug and his Gold - Anato Finnstark

#smaug #tolkien #lordoftherings

[NerdoftheRings]

What do you think would happen if Smaug survived? What theory would you like to see me take on next?! Let me know!

[drewwilson]

This scenario points out the importance of a wizard arriving precisely when he means to.

[stewhv]

Nazgul: "Uh, hey Smaug?"
Smaug: "What is it?"
Nazgul: "You know you have this bare spot on your chest there."
Smaug: "Oh shit! Thanks, I'll take care of that right away. I'd hate for some mortal punk to make a lucky trick shot or something like that."

[philkugler]

Then Tom Bombadil sings just a little bit louder, and Sauron offers his most sincere apologizes while going back to Mordor quietly.

[heatherrockwell]

There's a lot to dislike about the second and third Hobbit movies, but one thing they get right, I feel, is Smaug. The power and scale of the dragons in Arda really comes across in the visuals and voice work.

[pcefsbx]

I firmly believe Smaug would stay neutral in the war. Smaug would never part with his treasure or the mountain for a second. There's nothing Sauron has that Smaug would want besides the rings of power, and Sauron isn't giving those up.

[Busrayne]

I think Gandalf would have eventually heard of Thorin mustering an army and would have sought him out; however, convincing him of a stealth approach at _that_ stage would have been a bit harder.

[istari]

Here's another variation to consider. Some time after the White Council drives Sauron from Dol Guldur, the Council moves against Smaug. This could be done in conjunction with the Dwarvish assault on Erebor.

[Daavlot]

If the Forces of Good were eliminated, probably a power struggle would soon emerge between Sauron, Saruman and Smaug.

[Roboticus_Prime_RC]

I would think there's and even chance that Smaug would refuse Sauron's offer. He is a great and powerful dragon after all. He has no need for bargains, he takes what he wants.

He's just as likely to throw a wrench in everyone's plans. even to the point of gathering his own army of orcs/goblins to command.

[AceTheSkylord]

Crazy how the fate of Middle Earth rested upon one chance meeting between Gandalf and Thorin, such is the way of Iluvatar I guess

[thedramaticcharismatic]

I can’t imagine Sauron not losing an arm and a leg for taking rivendell, even with Smaug. Heck he’d probably lose Smaug. If Bard could hit the shot that killed Smaug, I have a feeling Elrond’s best bowman can definitely do it.

[AduAlexxx]

I love this "What if". The most interesting part is actually at what point does the story change. If the ring would still be found and somehow bilbo survied, but the quest failed, it would be a whole different story.

[Nightmarc]

Imagine if Sauron not only gained allegiance with smaug, but with the Balrog from Moria as well.😳

[alexander.tahtadjian]

So long story short: Smaug lives, and all hell breaks loose.

[Bobay]

I agree 100% with the analysis you presented, however I believe that Sauron would have sent messengers to Moria to unleash the Balrog as well upon the Free Peoples of Middle Earth. A sad ending for Middle Earth, but for a "chance" meeting in Bree. As Tolkien wrote, it was the One (Eru) who still looked after events in Arda that prevented this scenario.

Smaug's indirect role in how the third age unfolds is fascinating

[fistsoffaith]

I’d love to see you take on “What if Galadriel had taken the One Ring?”

[alsojuja]

No doubt Smaug would get greedy, Saruman would want more power, and Sauron would see everyone as a threat. And all of them would want the One Ring (Smaug would see it as treasure). The "axis" of evil probably wouldn't get along with each other any more than they got along with the forces of good. Sauron would have to keep the alliance together long enough to defeat Galadriel and Elrond, who would be actively scheming against them at every turn. Meanwhile, everyone outside the axis powers would be forging alliances they might not have otherwise considered, in particular Dwarves and Elves. The video narrative is a worst case scenario, fair enough, but I think that other chance meetings and unlikely heroes might emerge to defeat Sauron's plans in a different way. It's fun to think about.

[davebanker]

Smaug and Sauron would end up playing out a similar scene that and Ungoliant and Melkor did. If Smaug caught wind of the ring he would demand it as he was promised riched greater than the dwarves trinkets. It would end up in battle with Sauraman either having been killed beforehand by Sauron or, being an opportunist prods them to war and hunts the ring working to find it.