US Naval Blockade Against China Won't Work - Here's Why

We examine the impact on the Chinese war economy from a US naval blockade of the Strait of Malacca, and how China might respond to mitigate the impact.

Keywords: Malacca dilemma, PLAN, PLA Navy, Chinese Navy, military

[precipice]

US seem to think all their enemies will just sit back and let them do whatever they want.

[GMATveteran]

This is a wonderfully comprehensive video on the topic of a potential US blockade of the PRC. However, it still misses 3 key points that should be part of any conversation about a Sino-US war, so some constructive criticism is warranted here:

1. By omitting the data about the structure & makeup of Chinese exports, this video gives off the false impression that any "blockade" would only be a one-way affair. In reality, the PRC will also deny critical resources that the US would need to sustain a lengthy war, namely - rare earth minerals, steel, UAV components, electronics, etc. Granted that in time the US would be able to make up the shortfalls in all of these areas, the time it takes to do so is FAR more lengthy than Chinese import substitution (switching from supplier A to supplier B). Rare earth minerals refinement is not an industry that can be propped up overnight, same applies to electronics & UAV manufacturing.

2. This video seems to have omitted any mention of whether a sustained blockade of Malacca (or any other SLOC in the APAC region) is militarily sustainable, given that the PLA has the means to strike anywhere along these SLOCs from the relative safety of its interior territory, using long-range HGV-equipped missiles such as the DF-26, DF-27, etc. The only assets that can conduct a blockade mission in relative safety are the US SSNs, assuming that the US is able to continue maintaining its lead vs the PLAN in this field. The PLAN might not be able to end the blockade overnight, in a Mahan-style decisive naval engagement, but it is more than capable of wearing down the USN through attrition (via long-range strike). Moreover, the superiority of PRC's industrial capacity means that it can replace ships at a far faster rate than the US.

3. All the discussion centers on the assumption that such a blockade scenario takes place within the decade, given that it's centered on China's existing energy consumption patterns. By the end of this decade, China's energy consumption structure will have fundamentally changed. Nuclear power & renewables will make up a far larger percentage of Chinese energy consumption, & China's ability to harness its domestic shale reserves (which are vastly larger than that of the US) will be far more mature than it is today.

Still, this is an impressive video that summarizes the key basic issues in a reasonable amount of time. Nevertheless, I hope a follow up video can address some of the aforementioned points.

[filipzietek]

Even if the US fleet was capable of intercepting the Chinese missles they would simply run out of interceptors really quickly.

[xinyiquan]

most of oil is from Russia and iran, russia send oil to china by piping, and iran can send oil by train or road directly from parkistan and rail to china, also china is building piping from iran directly to china via Pakistan, china does not even need ship via the sea, also, china has huge reserve of its own oil too, china imports lots of oil, but china itself is also big producer of oil in last 60 years, it store most of oil as reserve, also china economy is now using more green engery, it is reducing oil using,

[lifeisgood]

According to an article on Asia Times by David Goldman, China has more than enough anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles to target all U.S. surface warships and their missile defense. Plus, China's advanced, AI manufacturing capacity can produce thousands of missiles and other military hardware per week.

[fatdoi]

decoupling with china is crazy.... declaring war with china is madness to say the least..
also chinese are more flexible and willing on rationing during war time.... they see it as their civic duty to those who are fighting on their behalf

[tonyyin]

Even if marginally successful, which is highly questionable given superior Chinese EW (proven in recent SCS confrontation) and A2AD technologies (driven home by Houthis), US naval blockade against China would result in quick suspension of consumer, commercial, and military exports America require to run its economy and its military. Since government and private consumption is more than 70% of the US economy, which it has no short-term alternatives to Chinese imports either directly or through third-party nations, US economy would grind to a halt faster than Chinese economy because while you could print endless dollars, you can't print manufactured products. Also, economies of US vassal states like Japan, RoK, and Philippines would implode just as quickly.

[LuobingSong]

one thing to mention here
the most of natural resources import is for civilian industrial production, as China is now producing about 60% of world industrial products
at war time, the actually military and internal resource consumption will be much less than peace time production actually needed
and this kind of war is actually a world war, civilian usages will be controlled at war time
i don't understand how or why western people think of eliminate Chinese natural resources will limit Chinese war production, the most of Chinese factories and Chinese worker are actually working on export, a war will simply cut more than half of western nations industry production supply, and send Chinese workers onto battlefield

[xinyiquan]

also china will block every merchant ship to US too, china can also send land force and enter Alaska via russia, another thing is china can supply all big gears to alll those groups such as Houthi movement, they will block entire gulf for any shipment to US and EU, also china can send air force taking off from iran or parkistan to block entire gulf region for any shipment to US , also china has way more navy warships to dispatch to gulf region than US navy

[pjo]

Here’s a recent quote from Bloomberg; _The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the aerospace industry and the Mining industry. The three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, McDonalds and Home Depot._

[WeiPan]

China will just sit back and let that happen ? Childish !!!

[marvinfok]

An old fleet going to blockade a new fleet??? US fleet average age of their warships were 35 years old while the Chinese were 15! This is not to mention that the Chinese is still adding new ships to their navy!

Not to mention China had very long-distance hypersonic missiles which the US don't have and US can't intercept hypersonic missiles at current stage!

[nostradamus]

US DDG attempting blockade can't dodge Mach-10 DF-27, DF26 in the Indian Ocean, SCS or in the Pacific. Twenty years ago would have been a viable plan when PRC had neither the means nor the space based ISR capability.

[ooikk]

The Chinese will rain down missiles on the naval blockade. No body knows how many missiles are on store in China. Judging by Russia endless flow of missiles in Ukraine, i believe China might have the same capacity as Russia.

[xinyiquan]

china has way bigger iron ore reserve than australia, only thing it does not produce much of its own its grade is not very high for those iron ore, but it only add cost to refine, , also china has most of granite and magnets and other metal reserve, which are crucial for all weapnoary and electronics and batteries, china will block all these supply to US, that will shut down every industry in US and EU, plus 99% rare earth is from china

[phils]

This is how the US caused their Pearl Harbour incident - by blockading Japanese imports, so as usual the US was the aggressor. The Chinese Brass know this very well, and so "mitigation" of such an attempt will be a very high priority. This might also underpin their pre-eminence in almost all types of commercial shipping - plenty of "replacement capacity" should things become "interesting" for the wrong reasons.

[oboknboboknb]

Don't need 30 minutes to explain. Common sense dictate that you would need a vastly superior navy to make it work.

[xinyiquan]

also, china has huge reserve of its own oil too, china imports lots of oil, but china itself is also big producer of oil in last 60 years, it store most of oil as reserve, also china economy is now using more green engery, it is reducing oil using, another thing is a full on war, means china will cut every supply to US, from everything, such as most of rare earth, china hold 99% of all rare earth, and 100% of techology of extraction and refinery, which US is totally depend on china to supply this in almost every aspect of industry, espeically those electronics and car industry and AI, radar system and missile and chip industry, this will shut down entire supply chain to US defense sector, also entire economy because everything in US are pretty much came from china even those from japan or SK or germany are built with all chinese parts or chemicals or material metals, minerals, rare earth, , ,

[dyong]

Conducting a naval blockade requires massive logistics - ship and crew rotations, resupply missions, not to mention similar missions for aviation. Just look at what is happening off the coast of Yemen. Even the yankee navy cannot sustain it indefinitely.

Besides these will be vulnerable to attack. Naval blockades only work against an enemy of inferior sea and air power. The PLA can easily destroy amerikan naval and air assets within the first island chain and amerikan ships at sea. To execute the blockade, the yankees will need to divert ships and concentrate them presumably in the Straits of Malacca. And that's when the PLA can strike. After its ships are lost, how will amerika conduct a war against China? Its a catch 22 for the yankee war mongers.

[gelinrefira]

It is also possible to move oil through the Indonesian archipelago from the Indian ocean if push comes to shove. Remember that China is now one of west Asian countries biggest customers for their oil. Any blockade will cause huge losses for all of them, and there are also a lot of incentives for Indonesia to help facilitate trade with China.