MIT Report predicts Total Societal Collapse by 2040 - With Gaya Herrington, Dir. Sustainability KPMG

#end #worldend #mit #limittogrowth #kpmg
MIT REPORT PREDICTS SOCIETAL COLLAPSE BY 2040, civilization collapse by 2040
Gaya Herrington is a director at professional services firm KPMG
In the 1972 bestselling book Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors (Meadows, Meadows, Randers & Behrens) concluded that if humanity kept pursuing economic growth without regard for environmental costs, global society would experience sharp declines in available food, standards of living, and ultimately the human population, within the 21st century.

The LtG authors used a dynamic systems model, World3, to study key interactions between global variables for population, fertility, mortality, industrial output per capita (p.c.), food p.c., services p.c., nonrenewable resources, and pollution. World3 is based on the work of Forrester (e.g, 1971; 1975), at the time a professor at MIT and the founder of system dynamics: a modeling approach for the interactions between parts of a system, which often produce non-linear behavior like delays, feedback loops, and exponential growth or decline.

Gaya Herrington conducted a quantitative comparison between World3 scenarios and empirical data available in 2019 to figure out if humanity has done better over recent years, or are we still following the Business As Usual scenario?

The Audio quality is bad but I have tried to support the conversation with visual data, this was an interesting conversation that will find yourself questioning the impact of Profit at any cost & business as usual approach by industry, govts & the world.

Time Stamp
0:00 to 02:47- Back story the 1972 Limit to Growth report
02:47 to 05:02- what nudged you to revisit the LTG Report
05:02 to 08:43- Societal Collapse by 2040- what do you mean by it?
08:43 to 10:33- What data used & How legit is the data collected
10:33 to 11:20- Why global pollution data isn’t available?
11:20 to 12:45- has the research been endorsed by climate scientists & global organizations
12:45 to 13:59- Others who have been working on the LTG Report
13:59 to 16:49- what can be done to avert the global collapse of 2040
16:49 to 18:46- Can tech help create a sustainable world
18:46 to 21:03- How worried are you for the future
21:03 to 22:36-summarise the LTG Report Scenarios
22:36 to 28:55-what's next for you & the LTG Report

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[dandilion]

I read the limits to growth back in 75....I've the gradual decay throughout my life. I feel so badly for the young.

[vsotofrances]

Ponzi monetary scheme cannot stop growing. We must learn that our relationships (money) cannot be any more in hands of sociopaths.

[billcarter]

Corporations, business, or individuals that don't remain competitive in the market place are replaced by those that are. This is the crux of the problem. We produce/consume to stay alive. If I reduce my effort, I lose my job. If a corporation reduces profitability, it goes out of business. We are caught in a Mexican standoff. Anyone who lets up on the gas is simply replaced. Under these conditions we are forced to consume until collapse.

[Skoda]

2040 seems pretty optimistic to me.
Somewhere in this decade seems more likely.

[bigtankmb]

Wonderful interview, I'm actually shocked how little publicity Gaya has received for her very important work. We need more content like this to really raise awareness of Gaya's work. Excellent work!

[TennesseeJed]

MIT report didn't include, or know about Regan and Thatcher using Milton Freedman's neoliberalism as gospel.

[ravikgpiit]

good. it was a detailed informative video. thanks herrington.

[WillJ]

Consumption is the problem as without it production would not occur.But so many climate scientists and other experts make podcasts pointing out this obvious reality whilst sitting in expensive university buildings against a backdrop of numerous books which presumably they keep buying or receive gratis.Their consumption of ever more books, and materials, attendance at symposia and the need to raise more funds are part of the ongoing annual increase in CO2 emissions.We have analysis of the threat of global warming but little or no idea how to get the biggest contributors to the problem to change their ways, not least as the very calls come from those who are embedded into a deeply unfair and wasteful system that ensures that change, if it happens at all will be glacial, and not in time to save the planet.

[magneticpitch]

so, as far as i can tell, these models don't include any contemporary climate change data. She said real pollution data barely exists. (yes, i do need to dig into this book to see how the models are actually constructed, but these models, being 50 years old, don't take into account where we actually are as a civilization). Please correct me if i'm wrong, but this states the obvious - Capitalism, and the myth of sustainable growth (the lie of the rich), will destroy our civilization if rich people who want to get richer are left in charge. Where we are at now, really and truly, is that even if Capitalism is abandoned, and all these growth models are corrected to the good, civilization will still be destroyed by utterly catastrophic climate change. Technology will not save us, only true wisdom will give us a small chance, and there is NO sign that the powers-that-be are remotely inclined to change the model that has put them on top. in 30 years i imagine there will be a whole generation of newly adult children that will utterly despise their grandparents' generation.

[djfghwetrysdfg]

so basically, globally stop poluting with chemicals and plastics usw. start increasing soil fertility and reforest hills, educate children on consuming sustainable products and use composting

[Atheistbatman]

Plant DIF not factored into any models
As nights become too warm it could and will completely halt crop production and happened locally
Only 1-2 nights warmer than days shut down my okra and tomatoes for entire season
Plants require nights to be cool…cooler than the days
And most bugs, ALL earthworms gone and no fly maggots this year locally…NWGA
-degreed published aged horticulturist

[sentientflower]

The remarkable thing about LTG was how such a simple model proved to render such an accurate result. But we await the collapse of civilization to compare precisely how close to the mark the prediction falls.

[dcartier]

Our collective ideological insanity comes home to roost (and, not to forget, roast).

[martiansoon]

Hope is nice. But the real revolution is just taking way too long. We still give way too much power to fossil industry. 2C limit is highly likely be reached by 2050, but can we stay below 3C warming?

Here are few studied facts:
508 ppm CO2e exceeded since 2021, NOAA, makes 2, 7C warming is current levels are kept, IPCC, 50% probability... W/m^2 well above 2C boundaries, many climate systems have shown collapsing, forests are turning to carbon emitters, huge areas have unforseen droughts, warming is 100 times higher than it should be, CO2 rise is 170 times higher, Earth has never warmed as fast as current levels, ...

Stop burning. Before it is too late.

[dougrighthand]

Geez let her talk!!!

I tried skipping around to jear what Gaya was going to say but this dude just keep talking and taljinh giving his opinion.

[elekkr]

2040 ?! ... Ok than .. I'll worry about this later than

[aijadawddaw]

Activist Scientist? Yeah zero creditability.

[jonathanhall]

For those that trust in everything but God's word and the Bible, 2040 or 2012 (Mayan calender) or 2000 (all technology resets to 0) etc..are a few of the predictions you can find declaring the end of civilization as we know it. But for those that trust in christ and his word I have some information for you that you may find interesting. Of course no one knows the day or hour when our lord will return. But we can learn and retrieve information sent to us in the Bible to get a pretty good idea of what is coming and when. When Israel became home to the Jewish people once again, becoming a nation in 1948, as prophesied, we have a date that we can work with. The lord also said that the generation who sees that happen will not pass without the 2nd coming of christ. We know that a generation is 70 years in the Bible. Also there is a reason we need to add 11 years to this (I'll explain later . Not that important) . That gives us 81 years. From 1948 and adding 81 yrs, the year 2029 is definitely the year we need to prepare and watch the coming as this is when we will be reunited with our father in heaven. There is no rapture to count on. Christians will feel, more than ever, alone and foreign in the world we live in ever increasing until that year. The last 7 years will be very difficult for those who do not deny Jesus christ and continue to worship him. We will be mocked, ridiculed, ostracized, forgotten, hated, and even crucified and killed. If christ suffered and had to carry his cross in this world that hated him for 33 years what makes you think we, sinful wretched human beings, will be saved from that same persecution . We won't fly away like the song says. The rapture preaching is one of Satan's greatest works. When we are dealing. With the stuff believers will have to endure, wondering when they are going to fly away from all of it, Satan will find that extremely pleasing and hilarious. Have faith and trust in the lord God who promises that we won't have to endure more than we can handle and that when we are at our lowest, He is there to carry us and protect us and give us peace in the lions den or in the belly of the whale or in the sea when a hurricane is all around. He will be with us until the end and one day we will have victory over evil. Over our evil selves and our evil world and will be joint heirs with christ

[jeffgold]

malthus has been proven wrong . population growth did not kill humanity as he predicted . now as the most populous countries, india and china continue to rise from poverty, powered by traditional energy, the west declines because it is committing itself to self inflicted energy poverty .