Population Collapse: Alarm, Alert, or Overreaction? The Real Data

Elon Musk claims population is collapsing because of low birth rates. But is this a false alarm, a reasonable alert, or an overreaction? In this video I share with you the real data of the true experts on fertility, population ageing and population predictions. You will be surprised, and relieved, by what the real data shows.

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[johnwatkin]

A few times TBA says birthrates have been declining for a long time and suggests that this is somehow a sign that it's not all that bad and as if it's a counter argument to what the alarmists are saying but it's not, the fact that it's been happening for a long time would make it a more concerning, more desperate situation with every passing day. And the fact that the global fertility rate is still (just) above replacement doesn't help the Koreans, Japanese, Chinese, Europeans or any other people with below replacement birthrates, and I never hear or read about a projected turnaround where birthrates are expected to go up again or even level off, birthrates have been going down for decades and that trend is expected to continue. Where does that lead? Even if the rates stabilize but stay below replacement levels then those people will eventually cease to exist, in other words they'll go extinct. Mass immigration doesn't change that in any way, it just fills the country with other people from somewhere else. Alarmist or alarming?

To be clear, I'm not on the side of the alarmists (or the opposite side), but I haven't heard anything in this video or from experts, governments or institutions like the UN why we shouldn't be worried about these (continuingly falling) below replacement birthrates.

[IndustrisasiIndonesia]

7:26 In the case of Japan, economic stagnation occurred. And increasing debt to pay for pensions and health insurance.

Companies are reducing the amount of money spent on R&D.

And it is difficult for the government to grow the economy when 800, 000 customers Disappearing every year .Reducing market size. And ultimately reduces the size of the economy (GDP)

[AlfarrisiMuammar]

15:50 What differentiates the 1980s from the 2020s It is true that countries of origin of immigrants (india, cina, Mexico, Brazil) also experience a decline in fertility rates below replacement levels.

Many predict that even countries that are liberal with Policy immigration (United States of America) will not find enough immigrants to replace their ageing population by the 2040s.

[arandmorgan]

I'd say it's worse than initially thought. People studying it are doing so from a data perspective. Actually living in a low wage economy with people at the same level, I'd say it will actually be a sheer drop.

[alexzimmi]

I'm sorry but saying population decline is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time is the same as saying climate change is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time. You don't really provide much evidence to back up your claims.
Don't get me wrong I don't think we should start getting children for the sake of GDP growth, but I think it is concerning that no industrialised country has managed to reverse this trend. The big drop in working age population is yet to come in most industrialised countries.

[lelnewc]

I'm with Elon Musk on this issue. The latest data from South America this year is truly startling. Births fell in Mexico last year by a whopping 17%. So far this year compared to last year, births are down 14% in Colombia and Brazil, and a staggering 23% in Chile. This is not normal. We are heading into uncharted territory.

[Jebediah]

Would be interested in your views on Bill Rees and his ideas on population.

[eada]

Sir, just started this video, a subject I’ve considered for many years. My only comment is we have to look at both reproduction rates vs death rates. That’s the main two elements. Ok I’ll sit back and listen carefully;-).

[ovelhanegra]

...and Deagel said: "-hold my beer"

[shirleynoble]

Sorry, Elon Musk is one of the last people who has any credibility with me. Do we really need to keep human populations at the current level or more? Seems likely that the Earth and its ecosystems could do with fewer humans. What happens when climate change strains resources rather than maintaining them? Humans are supposed to be so mentally superior. What does it say for human ability to adapt if they cannot do so while other life forms can? Falling populations might inconvenience current human ways of doing things. That does not mean it is a bad thing for the planet. It most likely means we will need to rethink many of our ways of doing things. There is nothing sacrosanct about our current economic systems which in certain respects are far from just and create problems for more than they reward. I really doubt that Elon Musk’s motives are in fact all that altruistic.

[anthonycoyle]

apply the same solutions to climate change, just adapt

[avalonnite]

Alright guys in simple words. Almost all nations are going thru a population crisis. The reasons are different from country to country or sometimes are the same but the consequences will be the same worldwide. We are going to suffer a lot because companies and governments will want to squeeze us for every dollar we can make from them. Which will lead to more working hours and less time with family and friends. You will live terrible lives because there won’t be that many workers causing trade jobs will increase price and other industries will increase prices because lack of workers. There will be a huge depression crisis because people won’t have kids or families leading to higher rates of suicides and chaos. The reasons that lead us to this path is abandonment of God which was our morals and community building. We stopped protecting our children and are over-sexualized by teen tv shows, movies, video games, books and social media that are extremely dangerous to young minds. We don’t invest enough time to our youth. Lack of opportunities in our countries because Corporations and politicians have team up to make themselves as rich as possible by any means. They sold our jobs overseas and now there isn’t enough high income jobs to start families or to live a decent life.

[TouchGrass_HeatherMarie]

I think a lot of people were having kids back in the day due to social pressures (i.e. it's what you do & give me grandkids) and a lot of people were having them without much thought. Now people are more informed and have taken the time to give it an iota of a thought. Sure, some people have the desire and feel like they can't -- primarily because of finances, but I also think more people than we think don't want kids. What Elon and the likes are doing is reproductive coersion on a societal level and I'm thrilled people can see through it. Personally, if this keeps up, I look forward to giving something back to indigenous people, wildlife, & ecosystems. The perpetual taking of the modern world is heart breaking.

[lelnewc]

I completely disagree with your take on this. I don't think you have really looked at the births data closely enough. Just look at the steep fall in births all across the world (except sub-Saharan Africa) in just the last eight years. Look at the births data from Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, China, Japan, Taiwan, S Korea etc. There are already about 40 countries in the world where deaths are now greater than births, and every year that list gets longer. In the next three years it is highly likely that France, the UK, Chile, Albania, Montenegro, Malta, Armenia, Mauritius, Sweden, and other countries in the Caribbean will join this list of countries entering natural decline. India has seen births fall from over 28 million a year in 2000 to just 23 million last year. This fall in births is not going to suddenly stop. I really think you have your head in the sand.

[owenintheagon]

I appreciate your channel. You deal with these issues in a more level headed way. I come from a philosophy background and as I get into these issues of demography and geo-politics, it's hard to find.
However, I think you are glazing over the complexities of migration and gender a bit. Migration as a long term solution in Australia (just one small country with lots of land to expand on) is whole different story to already overcrowded places like Germany, France, UK ect. The migration is Europe is now very sudden, often politically weaponize to undercut wages of locals and primarily male. This will create an imbalance of men to women, and economically push out working classes. This leads to so many political crises, as we've already seen with populist right ect. I don't think it's totally comparable to the migration to Australia (often from places like Ireland), that we've seen for decades.

Secondly, the gender issue here is complex. It's not just low birth rates, or having kids later in life. The very capacity for young people to form into couples, even as childless couples, is going away. Dating apps and pornography have created a sort of fully automated, virtual sort of sexuality. This is backed up by stats of sexlessness in both genders among the young. Birth control meds are also proven to have distorted effects of women's psychology which could be disturbing this process further.

I would say there are likely many alarmists out there if you look at this issue through sheer numbers. But if you see this a symptom of larger effects of technology and economy on the value and cohesion of human life itself, it looks more grim because there's no easy adaptive response to a sort of post-human existence (which is what I consider this to be), unless you radically change the very way we live.

[tonyhill]

Fertility is presently not an acute problem! More likely annihilation before any population collapse. But not having enough fodder for the money machine and the meat grinder!?

[Recuper]

Wolves are upset that the sheep aren't breeding.

[burntgod]

Musk and facts are pretty alien to each other. His "civil war" claim during a brief period of yobbery, hooliganism and vandalism in parts of Britain a few weeks ago was truly baffling and monumentally ignorant.

[AprezaRenaldy]

0:21 According to the UN the world population will not decline before 2084. But that's the whole world.

Meanwhile, Japan , South Korea, China, Taiwan Already Experiencing a continuously decreasing population.

[ahsaniqbal]

Population collapse i.e no more slaves to milk 😂