Recession from Trade War

Recently, the Atlanta Federal Reserve updated their GDPNow tool to show that their tool is forecasting negative GDP for the first quarter. As of March 6, 2025, their tool is forecasting negative 2.4% GDP in the first quarter.

But a closer examination of the data shows that their forecast dropped off a cliff recently. Just recently, they were forecasting a positive number. Now, all of a sudden, they are forecasting a pretty negative number.

Why?

Well, according to the data, it is because of a dramatic turn around in Net Exports. So, at the moment, it seems that President Trump's insistence on negotiation via Tariff may very well cause a recession.

But what does this mean for your investment portfolio?

Well, naturally, you can choose to ride out any short-term volatility if you'd like.

As for our conviction, we know that we do not know what is going to happen. Therefore, this short-term market volatility, could easily lead into a larger bear market. Therefore, we believe defense is appropriate.

But, then again, that's always our stance: defend clients' capital.

#tariffs #tradewar

This video, like all of our videos is made to help you understand the reality of what is happening in our nation's economy and how that translates to our stock and bond markets - without the hype and without an agenda. We are a fee-only asset management firm, managing money for discerning investors. If you would like to learn more, you can find our website below. Likewise, you are welcome to follow our Founder and Chief Investment Officer on LinkedIn.

#EvidenceBasedInvesting
#sp500 #stockmarket #activemanagement #riskmanagement #investmentmanagement #investing #retirementplanning #smallcapstocks

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There are rumors that GDP fell due to gold imports. Do you support this view?

[DrusyChrysler]

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