La Niña will end this spring, is El Niño next?

SPOKANE, Wash. -- After three years, La Niña is forecast to fade away for good in 2023. The cool phase of the ENSO climate cycle began in late 2020 and has continued almost uninterrupted since then.

The United States Climate Prediction Center says there's an 8 out of 10 chance for Neutral conditions to develop this spring. ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) consists of three phases La Niña, (cool) , Neutral, and El Niño (warm). Each one has different effects on weather patterns across the world.

In general, Neutral conditions split the middle of temperatures between the warmth of El Niño and the colder La Niña. Neutral years see average winters, wet springs, dry summers, and average autumns. Neutral summertime rain is the least of all three phases on average. That's because El Niño favors wet springs that can carry over into early summer.

In the extra-long range, the CPC is forecasting a 51% chance for El Niño this fall and 39% odds to continue on with Neutral.

A summer Neutral transitioning into a fall and winter El Niño would be particularly concerning for the Inland Northwest. El Niño favors much drier and warmer than usual weather in fall and winter. A dry summer, fall, and winter all back to back could have ripple effects long into 2024 if a drought develops.

Let's not panic just yet though. Dry El Niño winters are somewhat balanced out by El Niño favoring a wet spring. Predicting fall and winter phases before spring starts is notoriously tricky too. Plus, ENSO is also just one part of the complex puzzle of seasonal forecasting. Every road the weather takes is unique, all we can predict are some of the road signs.