Why aren’t home prices falling?

Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

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Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.

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[DianaTownsend-kjkj]

I think it’s a sign of resilience in the housing market. Sure, higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive, but the thing is, there’s still a lot of demand for homes. A lot of people are looking to buy, especially since there’s a shortage of inventory

[TakeBackTheMoralOrder]

Even modern technology doesn't know what to make of that hair 😂

[nitroneonicman]

Thanks Mike, I feel like this is the only channel I can get a real data driven and experience based perspective on the real estate market in the us, with as little bias thrown in as possible

[hankduncan]

Unemployment up, weekly unemployment applications down.

Housing demand down, interest rates down, inventory up = prices continue to increase.

This data is absolutely reliable and above board.

[ChrisHarperKC]

Home prices aren't rising. The value of your dollars is falling.

[giniaa]

Love your analysis of the data without the hype or rants. Thanks, Mike, for keeping it professional!

[GregoryCola]

Mike, comparing absolute dollar prices YoY doesn't tell the full story in my opinion. If higher priced homes are selling compared to last year, it makes it look like prices are increasing. I think a more valuable metric would be comparing price per foot.

[DavidSeymourOfficial]

You, literally 10 days ago- “we’re in an inventory plateau, and inventory will begin receding for the year!”

[RyanLundquist]

Thanks Mike. Yeah, similar vibes in Sacramento. It's been low supply meeting low demand. This year has seen pretty modest price growth though.

[GregoryCola]

I live in Silicon Valley. I can't believe how many multi-million dollar homes are on the market right now. Is there enough buyer demand for numerous $4mm homes on the market? Likely not - which means your home really isn't worth $4mm. Buyers can be very selective right now.

[malanalan]

it's a bubble. A home sold in Arizona in 2021 for 200k is again in the market for 300k!

[GregoryCola]

I've had to completely reverse my thinking in this market. It's so unique. Rates up = lower for-sale supply, higher prices. Rates down = higher for-sale supply, lower prices (but still TBD). If prices don't trend down, we will be in a situation where there is little to no change in buyer demand - with 5 to 6+ months of supply nationally. There is always someone that "needs" to sell. This will establish new pricing.

[luissuarez]

This data is completely misleading. I wonder when one of these YouTubers will start sharing real numbers, instead of skewed figures that measure median home prices while including million-dollar properties in the mix.

[ronno]

sellers have been expecting rate cuts to keep afloat their home's value. now that the cutting cycle has begun, we're seeing even more inventory piling up on the market. that will remain the case until they lower their prices.

[정의구-fc]

Sellers are delusional. They will face reality soon.

[eccentricccc]

You continue to rely on lagging indicators to forecast the real estate market, and it’s a fundamental error. Weekly median home price updates offer no real edge. They’re reflective of past conditions, not forward-looking market dynamics. If you want to understand where the housing market is heading, you need to focus on leading indicators like new home sales prices, housing permits, and construction spending. And, more importantly, you need to pay attention to the rate of change in these indicators, which is clearly trending down.

But you won’t see that in your lagging indicators like the ‘median home price.’ And here's the real issue—you don’t even understand why the median home price is rising. Is it due to increased demand, or is it because fewer lower-priced homes are being sold while higher-priced properties dominate the market? This is a classic example of misinterpreting data. When transaction volumes are low, but median prices rise, it doesn’t indicate strength in the market—it indicates that only higher-end properties are being sold. The lower-priced homes are not moving.

This skewed data gives a false impression of market strength. It’s not that ‘all homes are selling for more’—it’s that the few homes that are selling are skewing the median upward. This creates the illusion of rising prices, but it’s driven by a lack of volume at the lower end. So, you have low transaction activity, yet the median price continues to climb, and you misinterpret that as overall market strength.

This is nothing more than chart manipulation—the data is misleading because it fails to account for the composition of the sales. The reality is that the forward-looking indicators are pointing down, and you're blind to it because you're fixated on metrics that only show you what has already happened. This reliance on lagging data is why so many analysts miss the turn in the market. You are chasing shadows of the past rather than understanding the direction the market is truly heading

[tradewisetv]

It seems pretty obvious to me. There are a bunch of Pandemic buyers trying to sell what they overpaid for without a loss, and realtors are clawing at keeping prices as high as possible. There isn't a strict timeline, but there is a process, and the timeline will obey the process in due time.

[GregoryCola]

Austin, TX is the cautionary tale of what could happen in a market if supply increases and buyer demand isn't there. Look at Austin/ Zillow - how does a buyer select a home when there are a bunch for sale (with no product differentiation) within a few block radius? Unconstrained markets like TX, AZ and FL where you can build at will are tough places to be. I know people will hate on East/West Coasts but there is a reason why they are holding up better.

[Acamp]

Thank you, Mike. Can you answer me the riddle of Texas sale price obfuscation, and how you get TX sales data? Is it an aggregate figure or do you get individual contract data? We have always checked the box not to disclose our purchase price on Texas real estate, and as far as I understand not even the property tax office gets the actual sales price. As I understand it, appraisers do have the actual closing price data, but realtors do not. When you look on consumer sites like zillow you virtually never see a Texas prior sale price, only the list price or zestimate.

Thanks for all the info!