How Republicans conquered Florida

Florida was once the iconic swing state. What happened?

In 2022, before he began a campaign for the presidency, Ron DeSantis was reelected governor of Florida in a landslide. This was impressive and surprising because the 2022 elections were disappointing for Republicans almost everywhere else in the US. But DeSantis’s overwhelming victory was doubly impressive and surprising because when he had first been elected, just four years earlier, it was by just a tiny margin.

For a long time, in fact, tiny election margins were the norm in Florida elections. Florida was a “swing state” — it sometimes voted for Democrats, sometimes for Republicans, and was a major prize up for grabs in presidential elections. But by 2022, something had changed: Florida Republicans up and down the ballot won their races by margins similar to DeSantis’s, and no one was calling Florida a swing state anymore.

Florida seems to have undergone a political transformation. So what happened? In this video, we look at three possible explanations.

Chapters:
0:00 What changed?
1:49 Defining the question
2:52 New Floridians
4:10 Latino voters
7:05 Florida Democrats
8:26 The other reasons
10:09 A request

We looked at …. a lot of data for this video. Here are the main sources we used:

[Vox]

Thanks for watching! Let us know what other states you think we should look at and why!

-Adam

[koshka]

Florida is definitely Red.
But somehow Arizona and Georgia are now Purple.

[fishconnoisseur]

As a native born Floridian, something funny I’ve seen among Cuban Americans is an irrational hatred of the Democratic Party due to the Democrat, JFK’s failed Bay of Pigs invasion. I think that the Hispanic vote is very important in Florida, and for now it’s firmly republican thanks to the Cuban population.

[GillianSeed]

Every time a lib said "Latinx" a Florida Hispanic voted Republican and here we are.

[Frank]

I think there’s a big clue missing, which is Ron DeSantis‘s handling of the pandemic, which is universally loved here in Florida

[danielmortimer]

People always mention Cuban immigrants for the reason Florida turned Republican. But they forget the massive influx of baby boomers from across the country moving to Florida for retirement that also added to the right wing shift, since boomers almost entirely vote Republican also. They're also the demographic with the most active voters, which has a drastic effect on local government.

[TimeBucks]

High-quality research and data visualization

[hzpyrit]

As a no-party, Floridian Cuban, I can say this was really well done. I think it'll bridge a lot of gaps of knowledge between groups.

[kingsfan]

Kind of stuff I suspected but was really nice to see everything on charts. Was nice to see how small of an influence that new registered voters moving to the state had as well as how the Democrats gave up funding Florida. Very good video.

[silver]

An interesting note about Cubans: They were always a strongly Republican demographic, but in the 2000s they began drifting toward the Democratic Party. In 2016, Cubans voted the most D they ever have. Yet, in 2020 they did a sudden total reversal. Polling on specific issues shows that the reversal extended to more than party - Cubans had been slowly and steadily becoming less and less opposed to ending the Cuba embargo for years, and that reversed too, at the same time and just as dramatically.

[felipesadventures]

I am from Miami and there has always been a huge majority of conservative Latinos. Most people here speak Spanish. It is not very Mexican but much more Caribbean with the majority Cuban. But you can find people from every Latin country here. Most people from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and other countries vote conservative based on their perspectives of leaving their countries and governments, many of which have oppressed the people.

[Xonikz]

I was attending a conservative college in the panhandle of Florida during that election year in 2000. The school Deans, professors, and chapel speakers heavily pushed the idea of registering as a resident in Florida and voting for Bush. There were far mare than 500 kids, myself included, that voted as Florida citizens rather than doing absentee ballots for our home states.

[chad]

I'm always surprised and disgusted at how much money American political parties spend on politics and their elections.

[beej]

One thing not mentioned is the lack of higher level Democratic options for the ticket. When the candidate who won the Governorship in 2006 as a Republican is the best option the Democrats can put forward in 2014 AND 2022 (and loses both times), there is a obvious lack of viable options for the Democratic party.

[luiszuluaga]

I appreciate the academic approach to an ongoing shift in political perspectives. Nothing happens in a vacuum and I’m of the opinion that even extreme viewpoints can change when facts are presented in an easily digestible manner. Really interesting how the people who are making money in this country right now are either involved in the supply chain, finance, real estate, law practices and advertising.

[giovannicherico]

Awesome reporting! The charts and the research help us understand the breakdown and shift of the voters in Florida. It provides us a model to look at.

[RickJaeger]

This happens sometimes, and it's always interesting to see it happen. I wasn't alive to see California go blue, but I was for Virginia to go from purple to bluish, and Florida to go from purple to red. The Midwest and Pennsylvania trending red, and Colorado and other western states trending blue. One has to be reminded that history is not just a result, but a process. We're always living through it.

[JVDM]

This is top tier journalism. Good stuff

[karlcheney]

What an amazing video. Great research and production quality!

[courtneyshannon]

I would love it if Vox did a similar video on Colorado over that same time span. It was definitely "red" circa 2000, but it has shifted purple, and finally to pretty much expected blue. Maybe it's just "the Denver Metro area got bigger" and it's not as complex as Florida, but I used to live there and I would like to see the numbers behind that.