Modeling how glaciers collapse to help predict sea level rise

The world’s largest ice sheets may be in less danger of sudden collapse than previously predicted, according to findings from advanced computer simulations developed by researchers at the University of Michigan and the University of St. Andrews.

The study, published in Science, included simulating the demise of West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, one of the world’s largest and most unstable glaciers. Researchers modeled the collapse of various heights of ice cliffs—near-vertical formations that occur where glaciers and ice shelves meet the ocean. They found that instability doesn’t always lead to rapid disintegration.

“What we found is that over long timescales, ice behaves like a viscous fluid, sort of like a pancake spreading out in a frying pan,” said Jeremy Bassis, an associate professor of climate and space sciences and engineering. “So the ice spreads out and thins faster than it can fail and this can stabilize collapse. But if the ice can’t thin fast enough, that’s when you have the possibility of rapid glacier collapse."

The researchers combined the variables of ice failure and ice flow for the first time, finding that stretching and thinning of ice, as well as buttressing from trapped chunks of ice, may moderate the effects of fracture-induced marine ice cliff instability.

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