Russia's Kharkiv Offensive and Leadership Purge - Shoigu's removal, Kharkiv & What next for Ukraine?

The last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city.

In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'

Patreon:

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Reading and Sources:

TASS confirming Lapin's appointment to the Leningrad military district

Reporting on the build-up towards the recent offensive:

Reminder of Popov's previous criticism of Russian military leadership

"The Russians simply walked in"

Ukrainian raids into Belgorod - May 2023

Ukraine Border Guard warning regarding the Sumy region

Zelensky on shell supply

Reporting on the Recent offensive

**due to late upload this list will be extended on 27/05**

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:59 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:56 — The Russian Political Context
00:14:01 — The Military Context
00:17:17 — A Quiet Front
00:19:34 — Buildup And Operations
00:32:21 — The Operation Unfolds
00:37:07 — Purpose And Value
00:44:19 — Observations - Russia
00:54:10 — Observations & Recriminations - Ukraine
01:00:56 — What Next?
01:03:04 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Competing with the F1 timeslot is pretty daunting but here we are (apologies for the late release). Thank you so much for both your patience and support.

[steemlenn]

Everyone should remember that "corruption" in those systems is a feature, not a bug. And being able to remove everyone in a leading position for corruption - because they all are - is one of those feature.

[PushyPawn]

19:50 One of the patches on the helmet says: "Mom says I have to wear this"
lol 😂

[Weedsethesecond]

Perun, what I really admire in your presentations, aside from the content, is the balance between humour and the absolute seriousness this topic deserves. Some YouTube channels treat this war as another form of entertainment (music and all), and you never do that. Thank you.

[Robbiebert]

I think we're all thinking it...


Shooooiiiguuu!!! 😂

[nortyfiner]

I like the statement, "Shoigu may have failed Putin, but he never betrayed Putin." That's an excellent and probably accurate description of that move. Giving Shoigu a parallel move instead of purging him also preserves at least some of Putin's own image; "Of course I wasn't wrong in leaving Shoigu in place for so long! Look, I'm giving him another important job!" It also sends a message to Putin's people in Russia that sufficient loyalty will be rewarded.

As for Beluosov, I see that as Putin possibly realizing that at this point, the Russian military needs more than generals; it needs a project manager. Someone who can look at a mess with different eyes, get it organized and direct resources, and generally make things happen. A historic American example is the Manhattan Project; it floundered under the direction of civilian college professors until Gen. Leslie Groves took charge, and accomplished more in his first month than the entire project had in its existence to that point. Not saying that Beluosov is Leslie Groves; he is inheriting a historic dumpster fire and "reduce the fuckups" is a relatively low bar for success, so his accomplishments are yet to be judged. We shall see.

[rustyshackleford]

"Running around like an overly cashed-up airsofter"
I feel attacked.

[judithbradford]

The message seems to be that Shiogu personally has impunity, but he has NO coattails protecting ANY underlings. He's the ONLY safe underling.

[rileyfaelan]

45:30 The "Leningrad military district" thing is probably not a new weirdness, but just a result of the city of St Petersburg being located in the Leningrad Oblast. The city was renamed after the USSR fell, but the oblast around it was not.

[wintersowl]

"I'd still pick my Airlines Carefully" Perun's sharp wit at work again I see! XD

[AlRoderick]

General Cosplaymonaut standing in the road directing traffic, he's literally reenacting a scene from the movie Patton. I don't know if it's worse if he knows he's doing it or not.

[Tudor_Rusan]

Very happy to see you give a shoutout to Vlad Vexler! You're both absolutely top tier people and I'm happy I can hear your thoughts on YouTube.

[What_do_I_Think]

I feel very much ashamed about the lack of courage on the western side. We expect the Ukrainians to carry the full weight of the war but we also restrict them, basically crippling them, because our fears that our own prospericy could be endangerd are so great.

An American general described it this way: "We force the Ukrainians to fight with one arm bound behind their back"

[nekomakhea]

> Shoigu cost him the war, but got promoted sideways anyways to signal Putin rewarding his loyalty, because at least he didn't betray Putin like Pregozhin did
> New defense minister is an economist nobody really likes
That's first rule of dictatorship: pick subordinates who are loyal enough to not betray you, and not competent or popular enough to overthrow you even if you're wrong about their loyalties.

[paulmasterson]

The 51st Highland Division fought in North Africa and then Italy. They were “rewarded “ by being sent to fight in the invasion of Normandy. By that point they were utterly fed up, and complained (understandably) that some of the divisions that had spent the last 4 years in England should have been used. If troops are overused they may become unenthusiastic and demotivated…

[VorbildRoß]

In WW2 the U.S. did not restrict Britain's use of weapons we provided to them and should NOT restrict Ukraine.

[judithbradford]

There ought to be some kind of award for best DIY educational content-- the Yale project on cognitive communication should do a special event honoring and analyzing this channel content to share how you do it!

[jamesroberts]

"While only sacrificing resources that Russian high command cares less about... like Russians" hahaha. It's these witty lieks that make Perun the best. Talking about war is either boring logistic details or grim description of the human toil. These humorous lines provide a temporary relief from both

[Self-replicating_whatnot]

45:27 As a St. Petersburg resident i can actually explain this naming choice. We have a city of St. Petersburg yes, but surrounding territory is it's own federal district called Leningrad Oblast.

[zanzastrow]

Exactly the topic I hoped to see this week. Thank you!