Making Life Multiplanetary: Elon Musk's Goals for SpaceX

SpaceX founder Elon Musk outlines why he thinks investing in space exploration is important. He argues that he started the private space transport company not out of pessimism about the human race, but rather because he believes moving to the cosmos is an important step in human evolution.

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An interview with ELON MUSK
Chief Executive Officer, SpaceX

Moderator: VIJAY VAITHEESWARAN
Global Correspondent, The Economist

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Based on a series of live events from The Economist, The Ideas Economy attracts a community of active participants from business, government, non-profits and the academy who are interested in collaborating to solve global challenges, develop new ideas, and contribute to human progress.

[zenzylok]

Can't wait to see humans become a Multiplanetary species.

[raheelak]

I love projects like these. Although we may not currently have technologies that need to go hand in hand with this project, the simple attempt to do this is likely to motivate others to follow in their footsteps. Hopefully it eventually lead to a massive surge of space-bound projects within the next decade.

[blackiron]

All these pie in the sky space exploration ambitions when we still haven't got our shit straight here on earth! Priorities people!

[MikoPellas]

This popped in my recommended today Oct 2020. GO PAPA ELON, MEMELORD EMPEROR OF MARS

[johannesd.]

12 years later and in 2023 starship is nearing its first orbital flight. Nice

[blacknox]

@Idiomatick Don't forget about Chairman of SolarX (another start up company) which is a leading supplier of solar technology in the states.

[aiancestor]

extending life is beginner mode - needs to happen among other species

[rowland]

Starship being built!!! Half way there!!!!

[fredrikronnberg]

You're speaking in the 3rd person. YOU ARE a human. Help your species become multi-planetary; Help the humans.

[plusmake]

@tabber87 why should we care? They are taking risks to make it happen. To the extent that you are not forced to pay them but are able to choose to use their product/service then why shouldnt they make money. I think many people would benefit from expanding our horizons, and (if they ever get something that works) my bet is that the people paying will feel like they are getting something worthwhile out of it....

[valcan]

@SimianImprov "the commonly accepted definition for LEO is between 160–2, 000 km (100–1, 240 miles)"

So yea Really. :)

LEO once your there your half way to everywhere in the solar system.

[blacknox]

@SimianImprov listen to the whole sentence before you make judgements

[Ragnaros]

@SimianImprov He probably meant hundreds of thousands. He just misspoke.

[LucasDimoveo]

@SimianImprov Can someone make a mistake on camera without having someone constantly analyze them? I am fairly sure we all know he meant millions

[SanctuaryLife]

- 0.25% = (that's 37.5 Billion for those who can't be bothered clueing up the zero's, based on an American GDP of around 15 Trillion Annually) would only be required in the initial first few years of colonization. This figure is overkill. if Falcon Heavy succeeds in becoming fully reusable these sorts of figures wouldn't be mandatory and perhaps the costs will be closer to lipstick after all, if not less.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me, but if you consider even at a whopping 0.25% of GDP I am sure this figure is nothing compared to what is being wasted right now on excess public servants for example, too many senators, too many mayors and other over governance.

Considering Musk want's each persons cost to get to Mars in a few decades to be about $500, 000pp to take people to mars in the next 10 - 15 years, then with the high end of the budget estimate of 37.5 Billion and if even just a fraction of this budget were devoted purely to transporting people and that 20 persons were on each craft, on about 375 craft, then that equals about 7500 people a year transiting to Mars per year initially. It's an impressive number and this number will increase as you compound the American GDP annually at perhaps 2.5% leading to an average compounded human payload increase of about 1.8% per year. Now if we assume that the end date of assessing progress on the colony for this exercise is the year 2100, then the amount of potential human cargo migrating to Mars at this date based on these american GDP budget figures devoted to human cargo would mean about 47, 791 people a year travelling to Mars per annum increasing the population. If we slice this in half to get a roughly mean compounded figure we get an average of 23, 895 people a year travelling to Mars from 2025 to 2100. 

So assuming these launches began in 2025 and the annual budgetary figures remain static at a birthrate of 2.5 with the Ex-Earthlings and Martians and an average american mortality rate, then by the end of the century there should be a outpost city of about 1, 792, 162 Martians. As typical with outposts with mining and resources, we could also assume that there would be a number of industry's operating on the Martian surface and in the asteroid belt, due to the low Martian gravity favouring cheap launches into space, so i'll take a punt and add the typical mining component of laborers of equivalent to the town population so for this exercise we'll increase the population of this town because of the miners, by 2 so the population would be 3, 584, 325, of which 1, 792, 162 classify themselves as earthlings, but that fact largely irrelevant as at any given time that amount of people call Mars home.

I'll also add a burgeoning tourism industry akin to what a small beach community experiences with populations swelling by triple at any given time, I think this is reasonable given the allure that Mars will hold for short stay tourists. So we'll conservatively triple the population to reach this figure the number of tourists on Mars at any given time being 5, 376, 486. That's a City with a grand total population of 8, 960, 811 people.

Being that these figures are largely based on American budget and tourists I think it's safe to assume that America won't be the only country involved here colonising Mars alone on the back of Elon's rockets, so I am going to conservatively triple the figure based on the active participation rate of other countries and their relevant GDP's (Asia, EU), therefore I think that it is conservative to project that the total projected population of Mars by 2100 will be about 27 Million Martians or twice the size of New York City. Think about that for a moment, we do nothing now, Mars is barren and lifeless, or we start this process, and Mars has a bustling colony the size of two New Yorks by 2100.

At this point mars has become fully self sustainable and no longer requires assistance from Earth for anything at all. It exports minerals direct to Earth and manufactures everything from rockets and rocket fuel, to glass and steel for domes and farming, it also exports Mars tourism bling and colorful Mars grown strange and wacky foods, and low gravity produced arts & crafts. It has a conservative democratic government and is ruled independently of Earth and has an elected president of Mars, the first global government, setting the precedent for Earth to follow. The legal system is largely unchanged and the prison population is housed in separate domes, and are actively involved in manufacturing for the colony, rather than sitting on their low gravitized asses. Mars has a "Martian Police" force and Military, with a very subtly non offensive (to Earth) but powerful space defence force. As a Earthen style military is un-necessary as there are no borders on Mars, only space borders.

Genetic modification has been permitted on Mars since the first hospital was built in 2032 and all Martians born on Mars are genetically altered with physical characteristics designed to be advantageous to Martian gravity levels. It is safe to say that Martians are now a different species to Earthlings, but still cousins so to speak, and remain on good terms. A condition of the Mars Independence declaration of 2092 stated that Mars pay earth annual tidings of %5 GDP for 100 years as compensation for the colony costs. Mars is also actively involved in the ongoing effort to rid the earth of excess carbon dioxide and fix the destroyed climate.

Humanity's future has become more secure than ever and is now insured on a a multi planetary level, protected against all current global threats to humanity  except for a direct attack on both planets either an interplanetary war from Earth incorporating the use of Nuclear or Biological attacks, intergalactic or Alien attack, or a galactic sized catastrophic event such as a black hole, supernova, gamma burst etc. Still, far more secure the future of humanity is that it currently sits, like a pair of scales, just waiting to be tipped by one nutter country on this planet.

Oh and one other thing :) there's always one to get you guys started, how about Muslims are banned from going to Mars...and no fanatical thinkers either thanks. The Mars population is largely peaceful, non aggressive, intellectual and stable, with a penchant for showing restraint of emotion and a cut above the human animalistic flawed society of today's sexual promiscuity and alcohol consuming, sport obsessed time wasting culture. Mars is all about science minds, horticultural minds, genetic engineering, space exploration, mining, advancement through every means, with no time wasted. Unlike Earth where the goal of life seems more and more these days to be just to "get through it as happy as possible". On Mars, advancement is in the common interest, kids are born and raised with dreams of piloting their own ships or with dreams of being scientist. There are still folk on Mars living the earthen life, but these are largely folk left over from the original colonisation missions, and these folk largely operating farming domes, community centers and other necessary areas of city life. Of course Mars could not function without these people, but the general consensus of elections, education and even film and literature is in the spirit of exploration and adventure. Mars, the adventure capital of this side of the galaxy.

Let's get started.

[killuminati]

10, 000 year's huh i don't think so...

[AdamsonGeomatics]

I bet there is no manned mission to Mars by 2020. Elon Musk has more money than sense

[bary]

Elon Musk is a great guy. An Atheist, off course. Like all sane people.