Why Invest In Making Life Multi-Planetary? Elon Musk

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SpaceX CEO & Chief Designer Elon Musk discusses the importance of making life multi-planetary. Filmed at The National Press Club.

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If we never pushed ourselves we would still be happy with technology from 2000 years ago.

InkubusGames
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'And I like lipstick it's not like I've got anything against them'
-Elon Musk, 2011

kaireeves
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I never noticed how smart this is until today.

motivationagent
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Keep up the great work SpaceX, it's truly inspiring. Please keep posting these types of videos from your arsenal. For example, please post a clipping like this around the 'All-American' comments also shared during this press conference. Hardly anyone knows that the Falcon/Dragon technology is 100% American while the existing technology used by the US government is powered by Russian engines.

"Who's industrial base are we saving here?" It should be the USA's!

fabioj
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If we want to continue we have no choice. Just have to get there before the next asteroid ☄️

jamesbond
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I hear passion in his words.. wow... when was the last time something like that happened?

imarchello
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Hands down the most inspired and inspiring person in the business world.

gkbhai
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It's currently the highest performing ground vehicle that doesn't need oxygen from the atmosphere to work.

Everything Musk does is aimed towards technically being useful in space too. Tesla isn't an exception. If you're building manned Mars rovers you need a reliable electric drivetrain, and massproducing a car based on any given drivetrain is a very good way to demonstrate reliabillity. Especially if you're getting a profit out of it.

BosonCollider
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If you want to settle one of Jupiter's moons, you're better off going for Callisto. You still get loads of water-ice but with a good ammount of rock too. And it isn't in the deadliest parts of Jupiter's radiation belt, while Europa is one of the most radioactive places in the solar system(radiation on Europa is about 50 000 times stronger than on Callisto).

BosonCollider
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This guy is my idol. One of the most sucessful individuals ever. PayPal, Tesla snd SpaceX? Not even google can top that.

TheJesseMD
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Now I'm just looking forward to the February COTS 2/3 launch. Also in recent news, SpaceX will be developing rocket for the Stratolaunch Systems venture, test flight being scheduled to 2016.

jan.tichavsky
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He gets a lot of criticism. Yet he has managed to surpass almost all negative expectations in both Tesla and SpaceX so far - especially because SpaceX was close to fail. That he hasn't done it before doesn't stop him. He's driven by what he thinks the world needs, and of course what his customers think. He takes a lot more financial risks than the average entrepreneur I've seen and is personally among the most inspiring people living on the planet at the moment. I'm sorry you don't feel the same

Muskar
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- 0.25% = (that's 37.5 Billion for those who can't be bothered clueing up the zero's, based on an American GDP of around 15 Trillion Annually) would only be required in the initial first few years of colonization. This figure is overkill. if Falcon Heavy succeeds in becoming fully reusable these sorts of figures wouldn't be mandatory and perhaps the costs will be closer to lipstick after all, if not less.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me, but if you consider even at a whopping 0.25% of GDP I am sure this figure is nothing compared to what is being wasted right now on excess public servants for example, too many senators, too many mayors and other over governance.

Considering Musk want's each persons cost to get to Mars in a few decades to be about $500, 000pp to take people to mars in the next 10 - 15 years, then with the high end of the budget estimate of 37.5 Billion and if even just a fraction of this budget were devoted purely to transporting people and that 20 persons were on each craft, on about 375 craft, then that equals about 7500 people a year transiting to Mars per year initially. It's an impressive number and this number will increase as you compound the American GDP annually at perhaps 2.5% leading to an average compounded human payload increase of about 1.8% per year. Now if we assume that the end date of assessing progress on the colony for this exercise is the year 2100, then the amount of potential human cargo migrating to Mars at this date based on these american GDP budget figures devoted to human cargo would mean about 47, 791 people a year travelling to Mars per annum increasing the population. If we slice this in half to get a roughly mean compounded figure we get an average of 23, 895 people a year travelling to Mars from 2025 to 2100. 

So assuming these launches began in 2025 and the annual budgetary figures remain static at a birthrate of 2.5 with the Ex-Earthlings and Martians and an average american mortality rate, then by the end of the century there should be a outpost city of about 1, 792, 162 Martians. As typical with outposts with mining and resources, we could also assume that there would be a number of industry's operating on the Martian surface and in the asteroid belt, due to the low Martian gravity favouring cheap launches into space, so i'll take a punt and add the typical mining component of laborers of equivalent to the town population so for this exercise we'll increase the population of this town because of the miners, by 2 so the population would be 3, 584, 325, of which 1, 792, 162 classify themselves as earthlings, but that fact largely irrelevant as at any given time that amount of people call Mars home.

I'll also add a burgeoning tourism industry akin to what a small beach community experiences with populations swelling by triple at any given time, I think this is reasonable given the allure that Mars will hold for short stay tourists. So we'll conservatively triple the population to reach this figure the number of tourists on Mars at any given time being 5, 376, 486. That's a City with a grand total population of 8, 960, 811 people.

Being that these figures are largely based on American budget and tourists I think it's safe to assume that America won't be the only country involved here colonising Mars alone on the back of Elon's rockets, so I am going to conservatively triple the figure based on the active participation rate of other countries and their relevant GDP's (Asia, EU), therefore I think that it is conservative to project that the total projected population of Mars by 2100 will be about 27 Million Martians or twice the size of New York City. Think about that for a moment, we do nothing now, Mars is barren and lifeless, or we start this process, and Mars has a bustling colony the size of two New Yorks by 2100.

At this point mars has become fully self sustainable and no longer requires assistance from Earth for anything at all. It exports minerals direct to Earth and manufactures everything from rockets and rocket fuel, to glass and steel for domes and farming, it also exports Mars tourism bling and colorful Mars grown strange and wacky foods, and low gravity produced arts & crafts. It has a conservative democratic government and is ruled independently of Earth and has an elected president of Mars, the first global government, setting the precedent for Earth to follow. The legal system is largely unchanged and the prison population is housed in separate domes, and are actively involved in manufacturing for the colony, rather than sitting on their low gravitized asses. Mars has a "Martian Police" force and Military, with a very subtly non offensive (to Earth) but powerful space defence force. As a Earthen style military is un-necessary as there are no borders on Mars, only space borders.

Genetic modification has been permitted on Mars since the first hospital was built in 2032 and all Martians born on Mars are genetically altered with physical characteristics designed to be advantageous to Martian gravity levels. It is safe to say that Martians are now a different species to Earthlings, but still cousins so to speak, and remain on good terms. A condition of the Mars Independence declaration of 2092 stated that Mars pay earth annual tidings of %5 GDP for 100 years as compensation for the colony costs. Mars is also actively involved in the ongoing effort to rid the earth of excess carbon dioxide and fix the destroyed climate.

Humanity's future has become more secure than ever and is now insured on a a multi planetary level, protected against all current global threats to humanity  except for a direct attack on both planets either an interplanetary war from Earth incorporating the use of Nuclear or Biological attacks, intergalactic or Alien attack, or a galactic sized catastrophic event such as a black hole, supernova, gamma burst etc. Still, far more secure the future of humanity is that it currently sits, like a pair of scales, just waiting to be tipped by one nutter country on this planet.

Oh and one other thing :) there's always one to get you guys started, how about Muslims are banned from going to Mars...and no fanatical thinkers either thanks. The Mars population is largely peaceful, non aggressive, intellectual and stable, with a penchant for showing restraint of emotion and a cut above the human animalistic flawed society of today's sexual promiscuity and alcohol consuming, sport obsessed time wasting culture. Mars is all about science minds, horticultural minds, genetic engineering, space exploration, mining, advancement through every means, with no time wasted. Unlike Earth where the goal of life seems more and more these days to be just to "get through it as happy as possible". On Mars, advancement is in the common interest, kids are born and raised with dreams of piloting their own ships or with dreams of being scientist. There are still folk on Mars living the earthen life, but these are largely folk left over from the original colonisation missions, and these folk largely operating farming domes, community centers and other necessary areas of city life. Of course Mars could not function without these people, but the general consensus of elections, education and even film and literature is in the spirit of exploration and adventure. Mars, the adventure capital of this side of the galaxy.

Let's get started.

SanctuaryLife
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That's good. Depending on what you mean by "cleaning up", a lot of people are probably actively working on the exact challenge you're concerned about. Is it something like this you want me to tell you?
I'm sure you're aware that you can't control others to care about the things you do, and that the best way to realize your dreams is to actively contribute yourself, so I'm still not sure what you want me to say.

Muskar
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I think we can grow many strands at the same time, not sure how they would be connected. Either way a few meters per day is pretty fast in my opinion if this effort was actually started.

gregoryalasday
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And he has successfully done Landing starship SN 15 today❤️

Mr-shubham
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It's interesting reading Re-entry how in the early days, even many of the employees at SpaceX kind of went "yeah, sure" to pie in the sky plans about reuse, and going to Mars someday. And then they started actually doing it, actually started doing what people had thought would be impossible. I can't wait to see where we're at 10 years from now - where the impossible will seem routine. Where Starship will be bringing hundreds of people to space and beyond. I plan to be watching every minute of it.

WasatchWind
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Nanotubes come close but they aren't quite strong enough for a "regular" space elevator.

Space elevators all the way up to LEO have a number of drawbacks that'd make them impractical. I think a more practical superstructure ride to orbit would be an orbital ring or a launch loop. These can be done with current materials and don't make you spend massive ammounts of time in the van allen belts.

BosonCollider
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Yeah, I've noticed it too. It's getting a little old. But besides that, I like that most of his speeches are different. It seems like each speech is an experiment, and depending on people's reactions, he also changes it next time, with arguments that he thinks could clear confusion quicker.

Muskar
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I don't understand what you're saying in your entire second sentence. Could you re-articulate for me?
But you're right, the Model S is still not affordable for the average person, unless they save up for some time. But as you may know, Tesla's ultimate goal has always been to create mass market electric cars that are better than conventional cars, and that they planned all along to start with low volume, high cost cars, and moved towards the opposite. That doesn't mean it's less successful now.

Muskar