The Worst U.S. Presidential Election Prediction in History

Mr. Beat briefly tells the story of the worst presidential election prediction in history.

Produced by Matt Beat.

Sources/further reading:
Moon, N. (1999). Opinion polls - History, theory and practice. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
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In 1936, President Franklin Roosevelt ran for re-election. His main opponent? Alf Landon, the Governor of Kansas.

Throughout the year, a magazine known as The Literary Digest polled its readers, asking who they were voting for. Roosevelt or Landon? They sent out an impressive 10 million ballots and got back more than 2 million responses. According to the ballots, Landon would win the popular vote 57% to 43%. Indeed, they predicted Landon would win in a landslide.

Uhhh, but no. Absolutely not. In fact, the exact opposite happened. Roosevelt beat Landon in one of the most lopsided presidential election victories in American history.

The actual result? Roosevelt won 62% of the popular vote with Landon only getting 37%. The Literary Digest overestimated Landon’s support by 20 percentage points.

So why did The Literary Digest get it so wrong? Mainly because there was a participation bias, meaning the volunteers who actually responded were just generally not a good sample of the entire population. For example, it was mostly wealthier voters who responded, when most Roosevelt voters were not wealthy.

The Literary Digest lost a lot of credibility due to this election, and would stop publishing four years after the election.

[MeesterTweester]

This is why adjusting for bias is so important in polling. Additionally, only 2.38 million responses were sent back out of 10 million, with the anti-Roosevelt minority more invested in the election than the pro-Roosevelt majority.

[stuartaaron]

And here I thought that "Dewey beats Truman" in 1948 was the worst prediction.

[lightknight]

Those were still Great Depression days, people who replied were people who could actually afford a magazine subscription, something that many people at the time couldn't. Definitely wasn't a wise move

[petitthom]

“Is our face red” at least their answer was funny

[eyuin]

Alf Landon also lived a very long life. He only died in 1987.

[SunsetSecondary]

Damn that ended their entire newspaper

[NapkinNexter]

For anyone wondering why Alaska and Hawaii are not on the map, they weren’t states at the time. They were still territories.

[scotandiamapping]

I misread the title as "The worst U.S presidential election in history"

[jakemonaco]

Started watching your videos about a year ago. Thanks for providing such a solid education in American history and economics. You’ve been a huge influence in how I voted in this election. I’m incredibly grateful of you and your videos.

[LunarWingCloud]

Love having these little pieces of trivia on the side on top of all the great longer form content. Keep up the fantastic work, sir 🫡

[lorenschroeder]

Fun fact: If Roosevelt did lose this election and was a 1 term president, his one term would've been slightly shorter than 4 years. This was the first election in which the 20th ammendment went into effect which moved inauguration day from March 4th to January 20th.

[sirhc]

Another fun fact FDR'S strongest state in that election was South Carolina winning 98 percent of the vote

[Wikkid]

Bros blessing us with content lol!
Love it man.

[johnchessant]

a good reminder that the things we consider "obvious" today (sampling bias, margin of error, etc.) were once epiphanies

[vishaal_k]

Thanks for always making good videos. You are probably my favorite YouTuber.

[flamethefurry]

That same bias is still a very real thing in modern polls, so take any poll you see with a grain of salt. They've been off before, and they can be off again

[TheDarkSideOfJupiter-hb]

Imagine predicting a election so bad you go out of business.

[aaronTGP_]

Meanwhile, Gallup got a lot more credibility, since it predicted FDR's reelection.

[squeallymaniac]

Love how different the captions are at the end😅

[morgankingsley]

I know I already did this on the actual election review but I'll put up a new version 8 years later more up to date.

Between September 9, 1987, and October 1, 2024, Landon had been the only major party candidate from either party to live to 100