Mathematical modeling of epidemics: are we confronting or amplifying health inequities?

Keyfitz Lecture in Mathematics and the Social Sciences:
Dr. Sharmistha Mishra
Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto
Clinician Scientist, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, University of Toronto
Scientist, MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital of Unity Health Toronto
Tier 2 Canada Research Chair in Mathematical Modeling and Program Science

Mathematical models of epidemics are shaping decisions in public health.

But whom are we serving with our models?

In this talk, we review fundamental insights from epidemic theory and models of disease transmission.

We then place these insights within causal frameworks of health inequities.

We discuss assumptions of trickle-down public health and how easy it is to misrepresent “equity” and perpetuate stigma when interpreting findings from models.

Drawing on examples from the modeling of HIV, COVID, and mpox – we will ask ourselves – are we reducing or amplifying health inequities with our models?