Battle of Kharkiv II: Russia's Long-Term Strategy and Ukraine's Defensive Dilemmas

On May 9, Russia initiated a new front in its invasion of Ukraine. The apparent target: Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. This video explores what we know about the Russian operation thus far and why Russia started it now. We then examine the possible endgame goal of the new front, ranging from capturing the city to a simple fixing operation to freeze Ukrainian troops in place.

0:00 The New Front of the Russian Invasion
0:50 What Exactly Is Happening in Kharkiv?
3:00 Russia's Closing Window of Opportunity
5:13 Is Russia Trying to Capture Kharkiv?
6:58 Is this a Fixing Operation?
12:59 A Buffer Zone with Benefits?

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By Ministry of Defense UA:

By Government of Ukraine:

[mohamedelhefyan]

This is crazy, as someone who studied in Kharkiv seeing these same buildings again but this way is beyond description

[kopyloffandrew]

Correction: the Northern border never has been silent since 2022. It is a frontline indeed

[jayhill]

Regarding the grey tone / buffer zone, one thing you didn't mention as to why Ukraine needed to dig in much farther from the country border is that Ukraine is not allowed to attack on Russian soil with Western weapons. So aside from homemade drones and old-fashioned artillery, Ukraine's hands were tied whereas Russia could accumulate more and more ressources on their side of the border.

[mm]

Russia's tactics, for organization reasons, have been a general set of low-level pushes across the entire front. Opening up more fron means more total Ukranian territory falling simly because those pushes can happen over a longer line. That said, I mostly think this is a fixing operation, although your point about the range of tube artillery is well taken.

[cameronspence]

I believe this whole Kharkhiv operation is both the fixing in place option, and the stretching ukraine's troops thin option. Whether it will actually work remains to be seen though.

[mjly]

I like how everybody around Zelynski is wearing body armor while he walks around in a T-shirt.

[GojiMet]

Lines-On-Map Man bringing the lines on the map again!
Doesn't seem like a coincidence that as soon as the American aid package came through, Russia started moving to squeeze out as much as it can before Ukraine can get the tide turns against it favor.

[Fenrisson]

8:02 - A "Chasiv what?"
Pirate "Yarrr"

[criminoboy]

I think it's a big jump to credit the recent US Aid package as a having a huge effect on Russian action. Russia has been building up their forces all year, and many analysts were expecting a large Russian offensive this summer.

[MemesOfProduction]

I love a good lunchtime upload!! Appreciate yhe content, as always!

[sleepybokchoy]

Hi Will ! 👋 Thanks for the lines on maps!

[jurgnobs]

as a swiss person, it is absolutely insane to me how many people think speaking language X means you want to be part of country X.

we speak german, french and italian (and rumantsch, but that's purely swiss). that doesn't mean we would support an invasion by germany, france or italy. so why would anyone think this is fundamentally different in eastern countries?

I know russian speaking ukranians who now refuse to speak russian

[MostlyPennyCat]

3:22 60 billion plus that other 300 billion they're going to get.

[asan]

William Spaniel Thanks for posting this video

[Hoodlum]

There is nothing better than some 'lines on maps' to go with my morning coffee :) I enjoy your videos, I feel edukated

[geraint]

Anders Puck Nielsen’s argument is more persuasive: there is no reason to assume that Russian military plans are good plans.

[AricBolf]

It seems to me, Kiev could ‘conscript’ 18-25 year olds into back line only positions serving like 5 days a month. 3 days are used filling in back line positions and 2 days of training. And instead of all of these conscripts serving at the same time, they are spread across 10 groups serving concurrently. That would free up fighters to go to the front like other countries are considering doing.

[marlenfras]

Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.

[mihailos]

Thank you for this video, and for your work in general, I appreciate your efforts

[efghggdxlmfn]

Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.