North American Drought Projections

Droughts in the Southwest and Central Plains of the United States in the second half of the 21st century could be drier and longer than anything humans have seen in those regions in the last 1,000 years, according to a new NASA study published in Science Advances on Feb 12, 2015. The research found continued increases in human-produced greenhouse gas emissions drives up the risk of severe droughts in these regions.

In this video, soil moisture 30 cm (about 1 foot) below ground is projected through the year 2100 for two emissions scenarios. Brown is drier and blue is wetter than the 20th century average. RCP 4.5 assumes reduced CO2 emissions. RCP 8.5 is "business as usual."

Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center