Keir Giles - Why we should not Fear that Russian Defeat would be more Dangerous than Russian Victory

GUEST: Keir Giles - Senior consulting fellow with Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House.
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Calls to treat as legitimate the ‘security concerns’ raised by Russia, and to account for these in a future settlement of the war in Ukraine, disregard the fact that Moscow’s requirements are fundamentally incompatible with European security. Proponents of a settlement in the war on Ukraine often put forward the idea that Russian ‘security concerns’ must be taken into account in any such settlement, but also in broader revisions to the European security system.

These proposals echo the Russian information campaign over the past 30 years to persuade European publics that there can be ‘no security in Europe without Russia’. They provide false support to the argument that Western security policy after the collapse of the USSR unnecessarily encroached on core Russian interests by expanding NATO and forcing Moscow to militarize its foreign policy. In this telling, Russia was merely challenging what it viewed as an unjust European security order.
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SPEAKER:
Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. Keir has supported Chatham House in its Russia-focused research since 2013 and previously worked with the BBC Monitoring Service and the UK Defence Academy, where he wrote and advised on Russian military, defence, and security issues – including human factors influencing Russian security policy, Russian strategy and doctrine, the Russian view of cyber and information security, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours in northern Europe.

Keir is the author of multiple publications explaining the Russian approach to warfare. These include NATO’s Handbook of Russian Information Warfare; and Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West. He examined consistent patterns of Western success and failure in deterring Russian aggression. His most recent book is Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You, which describes the human impact of Russia’s campaigns to acquire power and influence around the world.
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BOOKS:
Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)
Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)
The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)
The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)
Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011)

PURCHASE A COPY:
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LINKS:
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SUMMARY:
Moscow’s war of reconquest against Ukraine has confirmed in the most brutal terms how Russia rejects the values underpinning European security – the same values agreed between Moscow and the West at the end of the Cold War. As a revisionist power, Russia has made itself the primary obstacle to peace and security in Europe and beyond. For stability to be restored and protected, it is essential that the outcome of the war in Ukraine leads to a situation in which – in addition to the expulsion of occupying forces – the exercise of Russian power is contained rather than encouraged. Over time, Russia’s leadership must also be persuaded to renounce its expansionist ambitions.

It’s now or never for Ukraine. A protracted or frozen conflict benefits Russia and hurts Ukraine, as does a ceasefire or negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms. If Ukraine is to avoid these outcomes and turn tenacious defence and incremental battlefield gains into outright victory, it needs far more ambitious international military assistance than it has received to date. This report presents the case for an immediate and decisive increase in such support, seeks to dispel overhyped concerns about provoking Russia, and counsels against accommodating Moscow’s demands.
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#keirgiles #chathamhouse #ukraine #ukrainewar #russia #zelensky #putin #propaganda
#war #disinformation #hybridwarfare #foreignpolicy #communism #sovietunion #postsoviet
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
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PLATFORMS:
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[cascadianseagull]

As an American, I'm just sick of this stalling. Give Ukraine everything they need to remove all Russian occupiers from their territory.

[bearowen]

Let us not forget that the USSR's humiliating defeat in Afghanistan arguably did not make the Russians more dangerous.

[stephenbethell]

I really enjoyed Keir’s book Russias war on everyone. He’s an amazing guest who has the ability to get straight to the heart of the matter. Thank you Jonathan for having such high quality people .

[LR-jkjk]

Excellent interview, thank you. Defeat of Russia is a must, not a nice to have. Only then positive changes can begin to make the world safer.

[alexander_andrush]

Excellent, guys, thank you! That are exactly the words that should be spoken by the key politicians of the Weat today!

[Villain]

I don’t fear Russian defeat - I fully support my country (UK) arming Ukraine to the teeth to facilitate Russian defeat.
I wish we would do more like lifting all restrictions on donated weaponry and supplying long range missiles so Ukraine can hit targets inside Russia.

🇺🇦🇬🇧

[MichaelJohnson-tdme]

You are right. Russia must be defeated. "There is no substitute for victory." General Douglas MacArthur

[bme-uk]

Great interview Johnathan, keep up the great work Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇬🇧

[oleglisnovitch]

Hello from Ukraine. Thank you very much!

[derekbaker]

A superbly informative & thought-provoking discussion!👍👍I really appreciate the willingness of Mr. Giles to tackle fallacies & gross misunderstandings which are (IMHO) poisoning & neutering U.S. foreign policy, and effectively leading to much more suffering among Ukrainians & vulnerable people around the world. I will also thank Jonathan for asking extremely timely & highly-relevant questions, as well as seeking suggestions from Mr. Giles re what Jonathan's followers can do to 'educate' & pressure politicians regarding their ill-informed decisions about Russia & support for Ukraine. As has been the case with most of Jonathan's guests, I would have remained absolutely glued to my laptop if the discussion had been extended for several more hours! 👍👍

[VanCanN]

Thank you for this informative discussion. It is refreshing to listen to a clear-eyed portrayal of the danger Russia presents to the civilized world.

[ScienceTalkwithJimMassa]

Excellent discussion Jonathan. Mr. Giles is someone the west must listen to. He has important insights that must inform and shape western policy. I always enjoy the discussions you have with Mr. Giles and hope you have him back again and again. Thank you.

[toi_techno]

The US defence budget is $1.77 Trillion
They've given Ukraine $60 Billion (mostly kit that would need decommissioning and replacing soon anyway)
This is 1/44 of the US defence budget

[Larry-perkins]

2 of the best analysts on russia today. Thoroughly enjoyed this

[jonnieyuma]

One of your best discussion---thank you so much!

[strezztechnoid]

Where the U.S. fears some kind of meltdown in Russia is ignoring what is going on. Russia is a failed state. Prigozhin's death, its methodology, is a perfect example of nation state failure. The U.S. is couching its involvement to not upset the apple cart, the apple cart is already overturned and the apples are on the ground rotting.

[vaataja]

A very good guest! 👍 Yes, it's finally time to say it out what was known already in 2022 May (literally written in Western press) - Washington's policy is "Ukraine shouldn't be too successful, Russia must not lose." This Western weakness has probably cost already tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives. :( We can't live in illusions, it is costing many lives. We must say it out and put the heat on policy makers.

[gerryhouska]

Nations subject to the RuSSian empire should use the situation to regain their sovereignty.

[williamlloyd]

One of the best summary reviews on this conflict

[Jean-LouisMorgenthaler]

Agreed. Russian victory would be more dangerous than Russian defeat. In any case, huge change can be expected all over the world in matters of war and peace.