Keir Giles - Russia's Next War - Who Will Defend Europe from an Aggressive and Militaristic Russia?

We are naturally focused on the war in Ukraine, as the largest such conflict since WWII on the territory of Europe. But this is just the latest manifestation of extreme aggression from Russia, in a pattern of expansion and coercion of its neighbours that goes back centuries. In this interview, Keir Giles explains the outline of future threats / future wars, and whether its possible to deter the Kremlin from returning Europe to a state of perpetual warfare. Is containing a revanchist Russia the best we can hope for, or are there political, social and structural problems that prevent Europe from mounting an adequate defence. Are we in a race against time, where direct conflict with Russia is practically unavoidable, and the stakes higher than we can possibly imagine?

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Keir Giles has spent his career watching, studying, and explaining Russia. Keir’s work has appeared in a wide range of academic and military publications across Europe and in North America, and he is a regular contributor and commentator on Russian affairs for international print and broadcast media. He is a Senior Consulting Fellow at the UK's Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and also works with the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), a group of deep subject matter experts on Eurasian security formerly attached to the British Ministry of Defence. He is a regular contributor to research projects on Russian security issues in the U.S., UK, and Europe.
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SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISER -
A project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to Ukraine's frontline towns.
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CHAPTERS:
00:02:34 There is a problem with Russia - if it’s not addressed, it is going to get worse.
00:03:39 Russia's land forces have been built back larger than they were previously.
00:06:47 United States as the linchpin of NATO unity is now under question.
00:09:15 In my book Moscow Rules, I examine what drives Russia to confront the West.
00:12:08 Societal and regime attitudes were frozen in place under communist system.
00:14:48 When dealing with Russia, it's not a single objective that they're looking for.
00:20:09 Freezing the conflict in Ukraine, leaves Russia free to reconstitute its forces.
00:25:33 The problem is that the US is being pulled in so many different directions.
00:29:20 Absorbing Ukraine will make Russia immensely stronger for its next attack.
00:31:22 In Finland, there will never be a call for surrender from the central authorities.
00:33:52 Finland and Estonia have poured vast quantities of money into defence.
00:38:05 Over 30 years of cuts to the British army have not at all been addressed yet.
00:42:52 Think of it as countries rejoining the free world after domination by Moscow.
00:46:21 Russia is very capable of dividing and conquering to destabilise adversaries.
00:48:13 Putin assumed process of state capture in Ukraine was sufficiently advanced.
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BOOKS:
Who Will Defend Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent (2024)
Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)
Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)
The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)
The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)
Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011)
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PLATFORMS:
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[eleanorhahessy]

This is the discussion that is invaluable. We need to hear this - we need to unite as Europeans and stop thinking that the USA will save us should the unthinkable happen. Poland, Estonia - these countries understand fully what Putin plans next.
Bless the people of Ukraine.

[EEX]

Yeah, weren't not the same, not even remotely similar. As with our neighbour Finland, we also can't be ordered to stand down by authorities if defending ourselves. Greetings from Estonia.

[jiribalusek]

Having czech parents, i know how russians think. It' s nerly impossible to explain it to my friends here in Austria.

[davidcpugh]

Europe doing the ostrich head in the sand. Maybe Russia will just go away?

[angela-qhgl]

I guess we will have to pull our socks up then!
Maybe we in Europe should shouldn’t rely so much on the US and build our own super power.

[oldowleye]

Thank you for this very relevant conversation

[thinktwice-meie]

Thank you! So informative but also deeply depressing when I consider the attitude and delusions of the German government.

[tamarasidlartchouk]

Totally agree with Keir Giles, unfortunately the good times have produced very weak people … Very alarming and frustrating. 💙💛👏👏

[mike_oe]

Ukraine is already doing it. Shame on those not supporting it - Hungary 🤬🤬🤬

[petershutak]

We have been badly let down buy our leaders. Mr Giles has been consistently right on Russia for over 20 years and knows what he's talking about. We should heed his wise wirds.

[flickthenick]

That old saying; A leopard doesn't change it's spots applies, russia is and always will be a threat to countries that do not agree with it...

[masterofallhesurveys]

Great work, my man. Big love from Bangkok

[peterweicker]

NATO's viability was predicated on American political stability, now both a bad joke and a fading memory. Unless it becomes something which the US is equally welcome to remain in or to leave it must be replaced by a new structure. That would require deeply ingrained patterns of thought to be replaced by new structures.

[afathersdevotions]

The Sudetenland debacle prior to WW2 has not been learned from.

[robjus]

I would love to see an analysis that looks at the foundations of Russian beliefs and the historical influence of the Mongol influence, much like the Magyar influence in Hungary. How does the historical and societal influence of these cultures still influence the modern state? How does this affect modern culture?

[rafaelsanz]

My Latvian son is going to be 12 years old soon. Probably he is going to fight in the next Russian invasion of the Baltics, as he will be on military age. He has ancestors and family members that were deported to Gulag or shot by the Russians. None Latvian will give up, in the last Russian invasion Latvians lost 450.000 nationals, a third of his population and now is completely submerged by Russian inmigration that has changed the ethnic and cultural identity of the country. Russians brought corruption, violence and drunkenness. Level of living in pre-Soviet Latvia was similar to Norway and higher than Finland. Now is a low wage salaries and the youth is leaving for UK or Germany. Russian occupation means complete loss of the national culture. This cannot be understand by many westerners, whose last foreign occupation happened long long time ago.

[hybridarmyoffreeworld]

There is a reason why in Finnish verb "Ryssiä" (Muscovy ), roughly meaning "to totally fail something".

[Gary_OC]

Outstanding and sobering interview. Thank you Jonathan.

[mrkiplingreallywasanexceed]

Jonathan how on earth is it that for the majority of your steadfast fans, prior to the past two and something years you laboured under a cloak of obscurity? How on Earth did you contain all the blinding white hot furnace-fresh sparks of superlative - peerless I venture to say - interviews and analyses? It seems astonishing!

Bravo, you hit the mark again with effortless precision👍

[udsmall]

Since MR went down, these individual info providers have become extremely valuable. We appreciate the work. 👍
Heroyam Slava. ∆🇺🇦🗽