ScienceCasts: Solar Max Double Peaked

Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, but solar activity is much lower than expected. At least one leading forecaster expects the sun to rebound with a double-peaked maximum later this year.

[somejackball]

2002 was probably the best year for amateur radio, lot of memories i have when i look at the graph there

[hos]

So... they were wrong? What about another slide into a maunder minimum? That would surely result in a cooling at higher latitudes and effect agriculture. Creepy.

[Alan_Clark]

The graph at the start is confusing, with "2013" underneath the graph for 2012!

I am surprised that they didn't mention the fact that the magnetic fields of the spots are weakening so we might expect a low minimum for this cycle, perhaps followed by a prolonged minimum.

[waynemsc]

It is curious how NASA's tepid panel predicts the 2nd peak will be noticeably higher then the 1st one. How did they arrive at such a conclusion? The previous double peak cycles contain split maximums nearly identical in height or sunspot number. So, the 2nd peak will not be 90, more likely 65 or 70. SC25 will be even lower prior to the new Grand Minimum.

[benthejrporter]

Just when I though Twin Peaks only referred to that slightly off-beat TV miniseries...

[jscottmiller]

I did studies of the Sun for my Master's thesis and continue monitor it and the one thing I notice time and time again is that it can be unpredictable. Philosophically, I find it deeply satisfying that just when we humans think we have things figured out, the universe sends a curve ball.

[Pincer]

I'm wondering how this affects the weather here on earth. Thus far, Spring in the Netherlands has been colder and wetter than I can remember. Do meterologists take the sun into account?

[aratanaenor]

Did you know that astronomers have been keeping track of large active regions and sunspot clusters since around 300 BC? It wasn't until 1610 AD that scientists had access to telescopes powerful enough to see and count individual sunspots. There are sunspot records that are over 2000 years old, but only telescopic observations made since the the 1600's are considered accurate enough to be"scientific" data. That is why the black average line on the chart starts between 1600 and 1650.

[dkonto]

does anyone know which month the peak will take place in 2013? thanks

[loraines]

In my scientist friend's opinion, this is a good broadcast. However, it fails to relay the useful information that the strength of the sun's magnetic field, in particular the sunspot strength, is falling in a linear fashion, to the point where there may be no visible sunspots somewhere between 2015 and 2020.

There may be a double peak, but if so, much weaker than the displayed predictions. The sun has gone quiet; solar max is a bit of a dud.

That saying, love those solar eruption clips!

[Excalibur]

Muy buena la información. Creo que habrá ese pico a finales de año.

[ljsl]

It appears very difficult for NASA to say "we just don't know". OK they said it, at the end.

[scottusten]

THe best line is reality is much more complicated. If you go back to 2010 almost all of the "blue ribbon prediction panel" said the peak would be in 2013 and be higher than last cycle between 120 and 150. That was completly wrong and they and to make at least 4 adjustments after that. Now again "something unexpected is happening" and the predictor is "confident there will be a double peak" Just admit ur guessing at this point and that models are not working for this cycle.

[maws]

Nothing happens when they line up. Its all about the phase relationship. If you look up the electric universe theory, there are some very compelling reasons why this is so. Its not gravity, its the electric fields up to gamma rays from deep space et al.

[gyoung]

This is funny because my predictions showed 2015 to be the peak and I was disappointed to hear it would be two years earlier than my prediction. I think the highest peak will occur in 2015 :)

[maws]

Wasn't too many years ago during the ddrop in the last cycle NASA predicted double what it is now. Yet side lined scientists and non-scientists who reckoned Solar activity is related tidally to the planets had it right decades ago!

[bradyessirify]

it's "their", whether they're here or there

[AndrasBato]

We'll see it. You can never know in advance!

[Excalibur]

Le he vuelto a preguntar al I Ching. Pregunta que quedó así formulada: ¿Serán graves daños en los Sistemas de Defensa de EEUU? Con el hexagrama número 46 LA SUBIDA mutando en el hexagrama LA MUCHACHA QUE SE CASA, hexagrama número 54. Estimo que es muy probable que se produzca alguna pérdida de Sistema informático o de satélite a finale de este año o principios del que viene. Esta predicción está realizada por mi ignorancia. Es esclusiva mía. Si existe error, será por mi culpa y no del I Ching.

[katesisco]

Well, I was wondering when we would get more information as to the history of these double peak reversals. They are common, it appears, and a single peak is the rarity.
Go to NASA a star with two poles and see the recent history of the solar reversal of cycle 23. The sum emits radiation from the equator 'holes' not known to exist and thought not to happen, which changes the entire shape of the magnetosheath the result being Earth is immersed in strong constant radiation. Result: our weather