Can We Trust China's GDP Data?

In the last couple of years, China's GDP has been booming highly. But, economic researchers have recently called their success into question and suggested that the government has artificially stimulated growth and exaggerated data. In this video, we delve into what exactly increases China's GDP and whether the researchers are right about their suggestions at all.

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9 - Trade Wars are Class Wars, Pettis and Klein

00:00 - Introduction
01:12 - Can we trust Chinese GDP Data?
03:09 - Why not?
06:35 - Why are this year's figures still good for China?

[yisraelmeirsobel]

To paraphrase Goodhart's law, "when a measurement becomes a goal, it ceases to be a RELIABLE measurement".

[peterfmodel]

This reminds me of the old economists joke. Two economists are walking down a street when they encounter some dog poo. One then states to the other, if you eat that dog poo I will give your $1000. After a moment the other economists eats the dog poo and gets his money. They then continue to walk down the street when they see another piece of dog poo. The economists, with the newly acquired $1000, then states to the other, if you eat that dog poo I will give you $1000. The other economists, after a moment, complies and get his $1000 back. They continue to walk down the street for a while when one of the economists states to the other, “You know we both just ate some dog poo for no benefit to ourselves”, with the other replying, “True, But at least we have increased GDP of the country by $2000”.

[arystanakmolinskii]

This is the same problem that the Soviet Union had. Every republic and oblast of the USSR had to produce X number of items, and if they produce above the quota, the target will be up to unrealistic extent.

It led to the phenomenon of "pripiska" where economic managers - from farm manager to the regional party committee, would overstate their actual output to meet the quota, by faking numbers and overreport supply of goods.

In 1984 it was revealed that the Uzbek SSR has not reached its target supply of cotton by almost 80%. Around the entirety of Uzbekistan's top bureaucracy was jailed for corruption.

[yoshihiroitabashi]

As I study how GDP and economies work, it becoming clearer amd clearer how easy it is to artificially inflate GDP value even if the economy of a country is really struggling.

[extrapolate]

Transparency isn’t one of the CCP’s values

[HeadsFullOfEyeballs]

If the "brightness of lights seen from space" method of GDP growth estimation catches on, Chinese regional administrators will simply install five hundred million floodlights pointed at the sky.

[vkopper]

West need these kind of video to ease their fears, more please.

[sinoleao]

You can trust EXPORT data than GDP data, because EXPORT data must be matched with IMPORT data by other countries. So, one question: which country exported most values of goods in 2022?

[adamkadir]

"Can we trust China's-"
No.

Done.

[ORO]

Any info shared directly from any authoritarian government, especially one that stamps out any form of dissent or criticism, should always be taken with a pinch of salt.

[nvt]

Thank you for confirming my speculation: the Chinese does have a policy “One Country, Two GDP”, one official GDP and one real GDP!

[MichaelCampbell]

Any "Can we trust China.." question is a pretty easy "no" from me, dawg.

[jeffmorris]

"No."

EDIT: Wait, did you just explain that the Chinese lie about GDP data, and then immediately after take their consumption figures at face value? Bruh.

[stephenconnors]

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

[Worldaffairslover]

I trust China's "eocnomic figures" as much as I trust their covid-19 numbers 😂

[Jkl]

100s of global economists, analysts from banks, Funds, investment banks, IMF, WB, insurance companies, think tanks etc spend all their time to go over Chinese data using a fine comb. He is using an ad hoc quote out of context from almost 10 years ago from the ex-premier.

[mehmetugur]

11 days ago: Is China's economy in trouble? According to (their gdp) numbers.
Now: Is China lying about (their gdp) numbers?

[Executioner]

Ya know, this is the best explanation I have heard for discrepancy between the lights study and official GDP for China

[NICO-Z-TRADER]

Just one more point to the good explanation. The fact is the YoY figure are a comparison to 2022 during which the largest economic region was under strict lockdown which is Shanghai. Therefore, it is rather "normal" that both retail numbers and GDP are on the rise. But still, having lived there and worked there in the industry sector, I can assure you that the number of shell industries, the number of empty new buildings, the number of empty roads leading to nowhere is AMAZING...

[bjoardar]

Title: *"Can We Trust China ..."*

Me, answering before I've fully read the whole thing: *"No."*