Modelling epidemics in real time: coming of age? | #ESCAIDE2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has given new insights and built evidence through real-time modelling.

In this session the panel looks at the contributions of real-time modelling to handling three different stages of the pandemic: early stages and the risk for importation and spread of the virus; forecasting cases and deaths and scenario building; and in evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions.

They give an insight into the major innovations in modelling during the pandemic and how these can be translated to other communicable diseases and how modelling can inform policy and communicate risk and uncertainty to press and policymakers. Finally, they discuss how we can improve data-readiness to be better prepared in the future.

Chairs: Bruno Coignard (Santé publique France), Magdalena Rosińska (NIPH-NIH, Poland), Adam Roth (ECDC)
Speakers: Vittoria Colizza (INSERM and Sorbonne Université, France), Jacco Wallinga (RIVM, Netherlands), Niel Hens (Hasselt University and University of Antwerp, Belgium)