New Batteries: It’s Not All Hype

Despite dozens of press releases on new battery technologies being released every week, not much is happening. This is why I don't talk about battery tech any more. But recently I read an interesting study about the hype cycle of battery technology. Let’s have a look.

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#science #sciencenews #technology #hypecycle

[robtweed]

I've often wondered where the Gartner Hype Cycle itself is on the Gartner Hype Cycle

[ermingtonplumbing]

Her analogising the “hype cycle” to her New Year’s resolutions is a perfect example of what I love about Sabines work

[Tn_jed]

I have a PhD in chemistry and I have two friends with chemistry PhD’s who work on battery technology for major US R&D companies. One works to improve existing Li-ion and the other on solid state Li-ion. Both think the best improvement in energy density for batteries we can hope for in the next decade is about 10-20%. That’s not trivial but to have practical battery powered airplanes we need a minimum of 5-10x improvement and realistically about 15x.

[mrcet]

(2:38 — At the risk of sounding pedantic, “Energy Density“ is energy per unit volume. Energy per unit mass is called “Specific Energy.“)

[stillatwork]

The problem with new battery tech is not what is possible, its what can be mass produced and had a long usuable lifespan. Most new battery tech fails at one or both of these checks.

So when the press will glow about capacity or charge time and skip over those two points, then you know its bunk.

[vannersp]

Great article. No spin, just straight up, concise, reporting on the lay of the land. That made it very easy to digest.

[johnbutler]

“ The Trough of Disillusionment “ pretty much describes my life since 2009.

[MalbecSnaps]

This tracks with my experiences. I remember when OLEDs were first announced and hyped, only for the excitement to die down. I kept pining for the tech to mature for a while after. A few years later small displays started coming out, and now large panels are becoming fairly affordable.

[johnpawlicki]

One battery feture that is generally overlooked is operational temperature range. Vehicles have a wide temperature range in which they must operate. Charging and dischargine need to be effective at extreme temperatures before they are practical for many things, including vehicles.

[dukefx]

I rarely see such well-explained and informative videos. Thumbs up!

[MarkHidden]

There is also the category of battery storage, which can be divided into three main categories: fixed storage, transportation storage, and personal device storage. Each of these categories can be further subdivided.

1. Fixed Storage:
• Grid Storage
• Home Energy Storage
• Commercial and Industrial Storage
• Utility-Scale Storage
2. Transportation Storage:
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Hybrid Vehicles
• Electric Bikes and Scooters
• Marine Batteries
• Aerospace Batteries
3. Personal Device Storage:
• Smartphones
• Laptops and Tablets
• Wearables
• Portable Chargers
• Portable Medical Devices
each catagory could demad a diffrent type of battery.

[jamesbuckley]

I'm a chemical engineer in the battery R&D field. I started working at Duracell in 1983. Back then we only had nickel-cadmium and lead-acid for rechargeable batteries. There were no cell phones, no laptop or tablet computers and no electric vehicles(only some forklifts and golf carts running on very heavy lead-acid batteries). Initially we developed lithium metal rechargeable chemistries and some matured enough for use in consumer electronics, but safety(fires) was an issue and the successful companies made these products for military, medical and aerospace use only(technician replaceable only, not for the general public).

[marinonacci]

CATL has 18, 000 (yes eighteen thousand) engineers and technicians working in R&D alone. 250 of which hold doctorates.

[stuckinlodi]

In Canada electric power milk trucks achieved 25 MPH and delivered dairy products reliably.
This practice began in the 1950s & ended in the 60s. The batteries slid in on rollers and were changed as needed. The oil boom arguably overwhelmed any desire to continue.

[kylebeatty]

I didn't know I wanted a unicorn that does my taxes before I saw this video but now that is the only thing I want.

[jimsackmanbusinesscoaching]

Gartner is not an IT company. It is a consultancy.

[nmrnm]

Thing is, for all the naysaying over the years, lithium ion batteries have in fact improved significantly over the past 20 years. I remember when Nokia phones used to have 1000 to 1400 mAh stubby but thick Li-Ion batteries, but now we routinely see 4000 to 5000 mAh batteries in much slimmer (although bigger horizontally and vertically) phones. The two things that reverse the undeniable progress of batteries is much more power hungry workloads - phones these days do a LOT more than play Snake and take GSM quality calls, but people also use their phones for much MUCH longer periods of time. Nobody was glued to their phone for hours at a time in the 90s and early 00s.

Battery technology improvements are hyped way too much in the near term, but people are totally oblivious to how much better things have gotten over a 10 or 20 year time span.

[francoismagne]

This hype cycle theory was fascinating. Thank you.

[rickrimington]

great video ! thanks
Tony Seba, famous economist and futurist, said that the problem with trying to create a new battery to replace lithium batteries is that it takes an average 9 years to go from development to retail use . and in 9 years lithium batteries come down in cost at an average of 16% per year and their energy density increases at an average of 4% a year . So whatever you develop today has to be better than lithium Batteries in 9 years time .
From a risk investment point of view . This is a very difficult goal for new battery technology to achieve and it is the main reason why new battery technologies dont get to retail use stage .

[aaronjennings]

Why isn't there a pit of ignorance hidden on the path to disillusionment, before the boat of productivity sails without delay?