What Does Russia’s “Capture” of Mariupol Mean for the War in Ukraine?

Mariupol fell to Russian forces on May 16, 2022. Why is this such a big deal? Why did Russia want it so badly? What does it tell us about what Putin wants out of this war? And what are the strategic risks for Russia? In short, the near-complete destruction of the city indicates a lack of desire from Putin to integrate Ukraine into Russia. Rather, the goal is to capture territory to form a land bridge to Crimea.

From Ukraine's perspective, the destruction of Mariupol gives Ukraine less inherent reason to fight over the territory, though it may ultimately enhance Ukraine's bargaining position.

0:00 Summary of Siege of Mariupol
0:57 Why Did Russia Want Mariupol?
2:16 Building a Crimean Land Bridge
5:15 What the Destruction of Mariupol Says about Russia's Motives
8:01 Oil, Gas, and the Sea of Azov
8:47 Does Mariupol's Destruction Hurt Ukraine's Bargaining Position?

From European Space Agency:

From Chad Nagle:

From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:

[pkjegbb]

This war shows us how difficult is the modern war. Russians firstly tried to occupate the town without destroying it, but when you have ukrainians in every single building shooting you with RPG's, its impossible to go further without destroying everything

[losthikari]

when i capture a village in minecraft i too flatten it before building

[johnbaker]

The Russians did try a low damage invasion initially. They first went in with enormous amounts of restraint. It's only when a good fight was put up that they started smashing everything.

[stinyg]

Compared to Grozny during the second Chechen war, the destruction in Mariupol is pale in comparison. Mariupol will be rebuilt and life will return.

[richdobbs]

Okay, here are some problems with this analysis: If there was a particular value to Mariupol in securing the land bridge, then Russia would have build a bypass road around Mariupol, and left Mariupol as a besieged city under Ukrainian administration. I would argue that the Kerch bridge is completely adequate to support Crimea and any offense movement toward Odessa for all aspects except for water supply to Crimea, which is too expensive for transport via railroad, and not particularly practical via a canal over the Kerch strait. The value of Mariupol as an sea port and an industrial center was lost in 2014. As a valuable part of economic Ukraine, Mariupol was made a rust belt city in 2014. Rather, the necessity to secure the coast of the Sea of Azov is to protect the Kerch bridge from missile and torpedo attack. The battle for Mariupol is primary a propaganda issue for both sides. Obviously, your lines on the map completely ignore tactical and strategic issues. If they were influenced by tactical issues they would be influenced by the Dnieper river course, especially the bridge over the dam over the Dnieper. If they were influenced by strategic issues, they would be influenced by the dam on the Dnieper and the water intakes to North Crimean Canal, as well as the Odessa sea port.

[barryscott]

I don't think Mariupol is quite as destroyed as William imagines.
And cities can be rebuilt a lot faster than you imagine too.

[Draconisrex]

Mariupol was, essentially, a port-city with little else in the way of diverse-functionality city prior to the 2022 invasion because of the 2014 invasion. It was not strategically necessary to capture the city and the only real benefit was to cut Ukraine off from the sea lanes to hamper its economic activities by increasing transport costs and difficulties for its agricultural exports. But unless they take Odessa and link to Transnistria, it doesn't matter.

Mostly it was just a dick-waiving contest by the Russians as one of the Azov battalions was stationed there so they wanted to show the world they were 'beating the Nazis.'

[elenastone]

Capture of Mariupol complete the land bridge connecting Russia direct to Crimea. Russia and Donbas Region don't want pocket of resistance who will forever create trouble. Complete control of Mariupol looks good in the map as well as seeing the success in completing that task.

[garymccann]

Conquering a city is difficult, but holding on to it is even more difficult.

[patriayvida]

Naaaaw... Mariupol wasn't captured, it was "evacuated."

[usecriticalthinking]

you got to also see that Mariupol was also the HQ for the azov battalion and putin used the nazi elements in that group as grounds for invasion.

[awesomehpt]

“To robbery, plunder, slaughter they give lying name of empire. They make a desert and call it peace”
-Tacitus

[dakefasso]

As an Ukrainian, I'd say your lines on the map make zero sense. They're based on neither the teritorial disputes nor the current front line. Moreover, the line that represents Ukrainian wishes (or claims) on how the boarders should look like after the war is totally wrong. It's out of the question. Only full libaration. Even Russia doesn't make any claims on those areas.

[petrsukenik]

"Russians call everything Russian slavic, so they can call everything slavic Russian"
- Karel Havlíček Borovský

[BigYouDog]

If Ukraine pulls back too far it risks losing Odessa, and that would be disastrous.

[josephnguyen]

Professor Spaniel. I help many Spanish-speaking students correct their English pronunciation and I use your videos as a model. Thank you for speaking so clearly and on interesting topics (very important to keep up motivation). I thought you may be interested to know that you are teaching more than just political science and game theory.

[JSB]

I like the costs vs benefits approach to your assessment. It's possible that Russia might attempt to seize the entire Ukrainian coast on the Black Sea. That would give it the same kind of leverage and control over the Ukrainian grain exports that it already enjoys over its oil and gas exports. *Not too shabby!!*

[DrumToTheBassWoop]

I always flatten cities in Civ, it's the only way to get real results.

[hidefreek]

I think Mariupol has a little impact on Ukraine before the beginning.
First: Ukraine can fight at many Russia control areas in the east more effectively and some are on the offensive. If the Mariupol fall before the Ukrainian offensive, the Russian army can encircle Ukraine's force in the eastern theater.
Second: Moral is very important on both sides. This can make Russia retreat under the pretext of victory and negotiation with Ukraine later on....Or... Duma goes completely insane and orders a full-scale war (A lot of them support the ongoing invasion and try to make the war bigger).
Third: in the Crimea theater, Russia was drag-on by Ukrainian resistance, and the plan to try to link Crimea and Russian soil is half-failed.
***Ukraine can disrupt the supply lines more easily than before while Russia loses a lot of momentum. It's hard for Russia to make a major strategic attack without anyone knowing. The war will drag on and Mariupol which is Russian propaganda may be a handicap in long term.

[dfaulted]

Back in 2018 I was visiting a friend in Poland. He pointed out a church. Apparently there was a German sniper in the steeple, the soviets took offense to that and removed it....it was finally rebuilt in 2016.

While it's just a church steeple and I'm sure they could have rebuilt it sooner. It underscores just how long it can take and how much effort to fully rebuild from a modern war. I visited a castle/museum that had been shot up by both sides and they were detailing their continued recovery efforts.