Book Talk: From Development to Democracy: The Transformations of Modern Asia

民主化是否必然來自威權體制的崩解？自從Daron Acemoglu與James Robinson於2006年的扛鼎之作《Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy》出版後，文獻多以威權體制所遭受的挑戰來理解民主化的契機。2022年，Joesph Wong與Dan Slater在合著的《From Development to Democracy: The Transformations of Modern Asia》（Princeton University Press）中嘗試提出一個不同的觀點。他們爬梳了亞洲各國的政治發展軌跡，發現其實有諸多威權政體是在經濟發展成功，且政權鞏固時主動展開民主化的進程。這背後存在著什麼樣的特殊緣由？此次我們有幸邀請到該書的作者之一，多倫多大學的國際合作副校長與講座教授，Joesph Wong教授，來為我們釋疑。

Why have some of Asia's authoritarian regimes democratized as they have grown richer—and why others haven't?

Over the past century, Asia has been transformed by rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization—a spectacular record of development that has turned one of the world's poorest regions into one of its richest. Yet Asia's record of democratization has been much more uneven, despite the global correlation between development and democracy. Why have some Asian countries become more democratic as they have grown richer, while others—most notably China—haven't? In From Development to Democracy (Princeton University Press, 2022), Dan Slater and Joseph Wong offer a sweeping and original answer to this crucial question.

Slater and Wong demonstrate that Asia defies the conventional expectation that authoritarian regimes concede democratization only as a last resort, during times of weakness. Instead, Asian dictators have pursued democratic reforms as a proactive strategy to revitalize their power from a position of strength. Of central importance is whether authoritarians are confident of victory and stability. In Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan these factors fostered democracy through strength, while democratic experiments in Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar were less successful and more reversible. At the same time, resistance to democratic reforms has proven intractable in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Reconsidering China's 1989 crackdown, Slater and Wong argue that it was the action of a regime too weak to concede, not too strong to fail, and they explain why China can allow democracy without inviting instability.

The result is a comprehensive regional history that offers important new insights about when and how democratic transitions happen—and what the future of Asia might be.