Deep Dive 13/08/2024 – Heat, lightning, meteor showers & Northern Lights– Met Office forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. After a dramatic day on Monday with hot and thundery weather followed by a meteor shower and the northern lights overnight, we look at what’s to come. We also look at how heatwave forecasting is improving and the events at Boscastle 20 years ago. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.

Here is a link to the report on machine learning and urban heat:

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[BluNinjaUK]

Thank you Alex, i would like to see a Rescue Elephant :o)

[JW_M]

Was up at 2/3 am this morning to see the northern lights in north mainland Scotland. Its stunning

[sandranorth]

Thank you for today's deep dive. I found it reassuring that the grid squares are covering a smaller distance so that the forecast can be more accurate. Let's hope that the whole of the country is modified soon. Love the rescue elephant idea! You could write a story for your little one 🎉

[ianhodgson]

Loved this edition! It's great to get a variety of items which deal with broader weather related matters (not just an advanced version of the 10 day trend). More of these please

[johnadams]

Mentioning the flood at Boscastle reminds me of the flood at Lynmouth on 15th August 1952, in very similar circumstances. Over 9 inches of rain had fallen on Exmoor in less than 24 hours, onto ground that was already saturated from 6 inches of rain during the preceding fortnight. It was reported that the road between Lynmouth and Simonsbath had been washed away during the evening. Further downstream uprooted trees and debris blocked the bridges until the sheer weight of water collapsed them, and during that night a wall of water descended on the village of Lynmouth. At it's peak the West Lyn river had risen a staggering 60 feet above it's normal level, sweeping a sizeable part of the village out to sea, the occupants of the houses still in their beds. Something like 34 lives were lost, I believe 28 in Lynmouth and the rest in the wider area of the flood. Rebuilding of the village along with measures to try and prevent such a tragedy ever happening again took 6 years.
My Mum was working in the pay office of the company based in Barnstaple involved in the clear-up operation. Her job was to go to Lynmouth with the pay for those involved with the clear-up, so she got to see the devastation first hand, and remembers it very clearly to this day.

[keithrussell]

Another essential deep dive complete with your energetic presentation Alex. Thanks

[UKSimon]

We definitely need more Rescue Elephants. You never know when they might come in useful.

[auldfouter]

Normally you'd see a flash of lightning followed by a roll of thunder some seconds later. Yesterday at about 6.30 am there was a continual rumble of thunder for many minutes. I don't think I've noticed that before in the south west of Scotland. Then there was some very heavy rain and I fell back to sleep. It was clear and bright when I reawoke .

[midnightsilver]

Fascinating to see the evolution in the forecast model from 20 years ago compared to today! Weather is always somewhat unpredictable (because of all the variables in the open system) but it’s brilliant to see just how far technology and analysis has come in wrangling huge amounts of data to give us far more confident predictions! 😄

[RedHeadForester]

"Rescue elephant" conjoured up so many wonderful images! I think that might be the highlight of my day.
I don't know how you maintained your composure!

[juliedurkin]

I do enjoy these updates every week just a little concerned about the weather next week

[danfry]

Send in the Rescue Elephants. :) Superb presentation though - great work!

[sarabazlinton]

I remember the events in Boscastle so well. I was on holiday in Cornwall that week with family and we were visiting the Eden project that day. Not so very far from Boscastle but we had sunshine all day, and when we got back to our holiday let, were shocked to hear what had happened just a few miles away.

[ryanlawrence]

Thank you Alex Deep Dive 😊 Proud Well Done Weather

[gillswift]

I am on holiday in Pembrokeshire and was so lucky to look out after midnight and not only did I see the Aurora, I also caught a glimpse of a few meteors😍
Thanks for the interesting topical Deep dive Alex 😊

[davidbardwell]

Thanks another, wide scoping edition, all excellent

[oqplxqc]

My son is web developer and keen on machine learning and AI. I was astonished when he got 2 computers talking to each other to solve an issue. Amazing and a little scary!

[MissFreyja]

Hi team, thanks to Alex for this weeks show, I found it interesting the way the Met looks at these awful events and uses them now to see how they could improve and what has changed etc.
I wonder if you would think of adding to future flood advice that people shouldn't be heading up to their attic unless they have a way of getting on to the roof. It's a common action to take when folk are trapped in flood waters and they think it's the safest place to be but if they can't get out and the waters continue to rise, it doesn't end well.

[rayhaddock]

Really interesting review of the past week both uk and worldwide. And a brilliant introduction to machine learing and how useful it can be for prediction and mitigation in terms of more accurate forecasts and `i wonder if it is or can be used to look at realish time mitigation particularly in urban areas to reduce temperature extremes - eg stree design and planting and of impact of types pof gardens and public spaces on heat etc. All topped off with indas about how the current tropical storm migh impact UK weather. A wonderful deep dive -Thanks

[ShaunUnderwoodx]

Thanks Team once again, How did I miss this last night . Northern lights. Story of my life really? Reason, I was told wrong information about ending times .So the lesson learnt is always do your own research .. Thanks Met Office