Nate Silver on how to predict the 2024 election

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village.

Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.

1:00 How Nate got into politics
4:05 The river vs the village
9:15 Neuroticism within risk
11:30 The tech revolution and AI
19:00 Bitcoin and blockchain
23:00 Predicting elections
27:00 Harris vs Trump

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[dannyarcher]

As an erstwhile 538 viewer, I had high expectations of this interview but it was way more interesting than I anticipated. I learnt more about him than I knew before.

What's puzzling is why he's still a Democrat when he clearly has a rivera mentality.

[wrs]

I can recall David Frum interviewing someone in 2004 and the interviewee mentioned that "England GDP per head is ahead of the US". My sister was living in California at the time so I thought to myself "What a bag of sh*t". I informed David Frum that the UK currency was overvalued at that time and that the UK's GDP per head was 71% of the US in 1913 and was about that level in real terms in 2004. It still is today, adjusting for currency levels. If the US spends 17% of its income on healthcare for poorer outcomes compared to 10% in Europe we should be wary of taking everything at face value.

The US politicians are not as mentally ill regarding fossil fuels as their European counterparts so the US has had some real gains there. As regards the high-tech giants - how many of them make real profits? Their stock market values will fall back to normal P/E multiples in next year's recession.

[martinhunter]

Americano is the easily the best thing at the Spectator & Freddy has a lot to do with that. He seems sometimes like the only grown up at a publication staffed with smart ( but smug ) sixth formers from a public school

[Ulvaeus]

The world’s most famous election prognosticator? Certainly not the most accurate.

[coolal]

Nate Silver is the George Costanza of American pollsters.

[DianeGirlamo]

T at least he was loved and taken care of at the end of his life and saved from dying alone in the streets. Bless all you rescuers for taking care of these abandoned animals

[philipde]

Allan Lictham is a far better predictor of elections.

[aribbonatatime]

The village and the river are quickly becoming indistinguishable. Maybe a book that should have been written 15 years ago

[rhys]

Comments about JD aged poorly. JD is a stellar talent.

[Austin-fcgs]

12:05 What VC firms get 20% returns on average? Lets say over 10 and 20 year time horizons to make it easier

[chesterhaduca]

What was Nate Silvers prediction in 2020 based on this same model?

[jae]

Good interview, interesting man, tiptoeing a bit, but generally honest.

However, Is it possible for Mr Silver to say a sentence without peppering it with “Like” 10 times?

[williamyalegoodman]

Nate's bias is showing. Vance is a brilliant pick. He will be the most consequential VP since Cheney. No voter has to go past Trump to make a decision. Whereas Walz is a leftist syncophant-who is he going to help Harris with? RFKjr endorsement is bigger than either VP pick in terms of the election.

[jacksonmadison]

Shouldn’t be asking Nate Silver. He favored the losing candidate to win in 2016 and 2024, said a red wave was coming in 2022, and his margins were inaccurate in 2020 even when he correctly favored Biden to win.

[jaxonwright]

Oy vey. I can't believe he picked who he picked!

[TeeHaa]

8:15 What's the sense of economic growth, if it doesn't translate into quality of life?
I'm asking for a friend.

[girdharrathi]

Yet another branch of Bullology?
Your viewers have an amazing span of attention.

[sunshinesun]

Oh I remember when Nate Silver had a full set of hair and weighed 100 pounds less...

[haydensonic]

Wow Nate silver has a warped view of the world. He thinks he is quite smarter than the rest of the world.

[davidharrington]

Nate is incapable of predicting that the Sun will rise tomorrow. When was the last time he was right about ANYTHING? oh yes, a lucky guess in 2008