Nate Silver - Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking | Prof G Conversations

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoughts on Kamala Harris’s VP pick.

Follow Nate, @NateSilver538

00:00 Introduction
00:42 In your book, what does the "river" symbolize and how does it affect risk-takers?
02:38 What's the difference between those in the "river" and those in the "village"?
04:37 What are the key habits of highly effective risk-takers?
06:16 Do younger entrepreneurs succeed more because they worry less about risks?
08:00 What strategies would you use to coach young people on their approach to risk?
10:30 How can entrepreneurs balance the excitement of taking risks with the need for careful decisions?
13:48 What advice would you give young people on balancing risk and responsibility?
16:33 What do you think people overlook about FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried when it comes to understanding risk in the crypto world, as discussed in several chapters of your book?
19:09 How does your approach to risk apply to personal relationships, and how does it affect them?20:40 What are your thoughts on marriage?
22:44 Who is going to win the U.S. 2024 election?
24:18 What do you think of Harris’ pick for Vice President?
26:14 What tips would you give the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign to improve their messaging?
29:22 Does Tim Walz's popularity in Minnesota extend to Wisconsin and Michigan?
31:31 What are some of the key influences and mistakes you’ve encountered in your career?
34:44 What advice do you have for young people choosing a career or industry?

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[golfinguru]

There’s so much survival bias going on in this conversation. For every Scott/Nate who left Banking/Consulting for online poker, there are 5+ failures who come crawling back and never regain their place.

[MichaelLaFrance]

Nate is really stuck on Shapiro. Shapiro is good, but the GOP wanted Shapiro because they had negative oppo research on him, and they knew they could alienate the pro-Palestinian youth vote. With Walz, the Dems get a solid VP candidate without polarizing baggage, but Shapiro can still campaign on Dem's behalf.

[jonathanswink]

Love Nate Silver....one of those dudes you see his brain working all the time. Interesting person. Great interview

[bretthowser]

“I think that people sometimes set the bar too low on life outcomes they are satisfied with” is the best expression I’ve ever heard for what happens to risk-averse people.

[tombesson]

I think Mike Tyson put Nate Silver's point well when he said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".

[bigelbow]

My advice to everyone is this : if you want to grow big this year especially in your finances. Be willing to make investments. Saving is great but investing puts you on a pedestal where you wouldnt have to worry about savings as you do now. Thanks to larysa Caba, my portolio is doing really great and im proud of the decisions i made last year.

[rusty]

Nate didn't mention anything about the role of independents in the upcoming election. They may represent up to a third of the electorate. Won't they be the deciding factor in November?

[williamcampbell]

Nate Silver still giving campaign predictions in 2024 is like asking Sam Bankman-Fried for advice on how to run your crypto fund.

[-Gramps]

I’ve listened to Nate describe his world view on several podcasts. My net takeaway: The “River” folks are the ones that would love to have a button that’s blows up the world, expecting that it would evolve as a “better place” (by their individual description) the next time. Unfortunately, they would keep pressing that button over & over, ad infinitum, until the world met *their* expectations. No consideration for what that does to anyone else. Scott’s right: Risky behavior, especially with a big win, too often results in much more risky behavior. That’s fine, until their risk has an adverse effect on others. OG observation.

[Nashadelicable]

Given that half the democrats call the Israel conflict a genocide and Shapiro has been heavily pro-Israel, it was prudent for the Kmala campaign to not pick him?

[Deanriley]

I’m generally more risk averse, but when decided to take risks, I commit completely; has played out pretty well for me.

[simplysimian]

Even though Shapiro isn’t the VP candidate, why can’t he still deliver Pennsylvania? They’re still his people.

[teebee]

I love that you put out episodes with great frequency!

[Sweet..letssurf]

Calculated Risks
Hate to loose
= success

[kevintheshane]

Nate spoke of his media business being better at smaller scale and the reasons he gave was keeping more of the profits himself and not having to pay employees who make dubious contributions.

That’s fine for him, but the end product suffers. I gave up on reading his Substack after loving his work on 538. He desperately needs an editor. He makes a lot of typos and often words things confusingly. The same can be said of most Substack Superstars. When they break out of traditional media, they have no editors above them, and no on the ground reporters below them. They end writing a lot of sloppy blog posts about “what happened on Twitter today.”

[kevdaag]

I listen to Nate silver talking about the current political situation and it's clear he has no insight whatsoever beyond what was already in the news 2 weeks ago. And to think that anyone should take his advice on something on a political move is ridiculous

[Tufas]

If you have read it, does this book add anything to Ergodicity from Luca Dellenna or is ist just the same?

[thenovine]

I really enjoy both the speakers here but was actually disappointed by this interview. 

Prof G has a great knack for distilling topics and human psychology. Nate Silver's superpower is following the data and being extremely objective. Despite them having opposing skill sets, they both seemed to miss the mark on the election. 

Sure the numbers say that Shapiro is the right pick, but success in Pennsylvania doesn't necessarily translate to success elsewhere, especially when a significant number of progressive democrats are hostile to him. And maybe Scott liked Shapiro and enjoyed that he was an economic centrist but this ignores the fact that Trump's entire gameplay is to find attack lines and pursue the attacks relentlessly. He's struggling because there is virtually nothing to attack with Walz. What? 6 years ago he misspoke? Big deal.

[LeviSebastine]

I know nothing about trading/ Investing and I'm keen on getting started . What are some strategies to get started with ?

[sanesanyo]

I have never come across a guest who sounds as robotic as Nate. I almost fell asleep at the start of this conversation.