#TFD In-Depth - Drop Rates - This is why you have bad luck!

In this video, we dive deep into the math behind drop rates in games, especially as it impacts The First Descendant.
We talk about how our perception tends to be skewed by how we usually interact mostly with normal distributions on our daily lives. We show how chance is usually represented by geometric distributions and how they differ from the more familiar normal distributions.

We break down complex concepts like the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) and Probability Mass Function (PMF) in simple terms, using examples like rolling a 4-sided die. Understanding these concepts will help you set better expectations for your in-game experiences, especially when dealing with low drop rates.

Key Topics Covered:
Introduction to geometric distributions and their characteristics
Demonstration using a 4-sided die and understanding failure chances
Explanation of CCDF and PMF, and how to calculate the probability of success on a given attempt
Insights into why drop rates might feel "rigged" and the right-skewed nature of geometric distributions
A detailed look at the impact of low drop chances, such as a 6% success rate
Tools & Resources:

Lukium's Drop Rate Predictor:

Detailed explanations and math used in the video available in the Excel tool

Community & Next Steps:
We also discuss the ongoing community concerns with drop rates in The First Descendant and suggest constructive ways to address them, including advocating for a "pity" system to mitigate the frustration of long streaks of bad luck. Special shoutout to Ryechews Games for their excellent content on The First Descendant.

Call to Action:
If you found this video helpful, please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing for more content. Join our Discord and Twitch Stream for more discussions and live interactions! Let's work together to better understand game mechanics and enjoy our gaming experiences more!

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
1:38 - Concepts: Normal Distributions and Averages
3:00 - Is this how The First Descendant works?
3:49 - Math & Demonstration (Watch this if you really want to understand)
7:33 - Geometric Distribution Graphs (Visual explanation of the Math)
8:05 - Start here if you don't want all the Math
9:15 - Main Point
10:35 - Lukium's Drop Chance Predictor
12:35 - Community Suggestions & Shoutouts
14:50 - Outro

Links:

Check out their channel

[NewYorkGameflow]

Keep it mind that Nexon was fined over $8 million for secretly lowering the probabilities of loot boxes in one of their games, in some cases to near zero. They did this for over a Decade.

[JadeMerkaba]

So this is why bouncing around and doing different missions typically results in better drops. Makes so much sense. Thabk you for this!

[A_Dog_You_Know]

I currently have 240 hours in the game, I love the game, but if anything is going to drive me away, its drop rates. It doesn't matter what the math is, if its not fun, I don't like it. The drop rates are not fun. Way too many items have low drop rates, and Ive spent most of my time trying to get a FEW patterns to drop what I want, when I should be doing the actual fun content like fighting the new boss and farming him. But instead Im doing infil missions and void shard missions for 100 hours only to get nothing I need. "Nothing" is an exaggeration, but I do think its fair to say. The drop rates are causing this frustration.

[aria.e]

80+ executioners and 40+ dead brides, not a single ult gley code drop (6%)

[jvond]

"MapleStory and Bubble Fighter (2010-2021): Nexon changed the drop rates for premium items without informing players, leading to a significant fine of approximately $8.85 million by the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) in 2024​ (pcgamer)​.

Sudden Attack 2 (2018): Nexon was fined approximately $875, 000 for misleading players about loot box drop rates​ (pcgamer)​."

[GreenStreetSlim]

Not having a pity system KNOWING how probability works, is nefarious in itself.

[cbirdman]

For the majority of the players, this isn’t their first Looter shooter. And I and others are complaining because we know what a 25% drop rate should feel like. This game is NOT performing like it should. And since Nexon has many patents on selective drop rates with a poor history of abuse, I’m leaning to the side that there is some artificial manipulation of the numbers happening.

[Gruzbee]

It's refreshing to see someone actually take time and offer an in depth look at the how and why of the thing. As a content creator that makes TFD vids, it's frustrating to see the same types of videos over and over again getting gobbled up by watch time, and they don't offer anything substantial. Great job, and I hope you'll do more.

[cole]

I still say they monitor what you have in your inventory crafting, tracking things you’re talking about in the mic etc. it is extremely strange how everyone in your group just happens to get the piece you always are hunting for and vice versa. It happens so often it can’t be coincidence.

[DocRock]

I appreciate you taking the time putting this together, I’ve been so frustrated. I have the worse rng luck. for those that remember Ghallarjorn in Destiny 1, I was one of the last few to get one a year later. Watched a couple of my raid friends get 3 in a row.

[MrLukium]

Just wanted to drop some quick key points:

1. I think the most important takeaway from the video is that given a sufficiently large playerbase, setting up a 6% drop chance without some kind of mitigating system, it's like "sentencing" a substantial number of players not to have fun:

for 6% drop chance this is about how many attempts will be needed to get the item sought after:
1 in 100 players will need ~74
1 in 1, 000 will need ~112
1 in 1, 0000 will need ~149
1 in will need ~186
1 in 1, 000, 000 will need ~223

This is why I believe in some kind of pity system. I have a few ideas on how they could do it without a pity system, but I just don't see them doing it. For example, it would be cool if every Amorphous Material had a "Luck Bar" that fills up each time you open it until you get the lowest chance drop rate from it, with each increase in the bar increasing your chance to get the 2 rarer drops. Imagine something like every time you open an Amorphous Material it's like it gets infused with a bigger level Shape Stabilizer. Who knows, what do you guys think?

[Unbreakable-]

Very well done video, you can tell the effort you put in. Ryechew also does really good videos with math breakdowns so I'm glad to hear you give him a shout out. You've earned a new sub my friend, keep up the good work

[sergiovasquez]

Omg the work here, as a Engineer, I deeply appreciate your dedication to explain this to the General public.

[robertlee]

Love this video. First TFD content video I've seen with actually good content. I get everyone trying to bash on NEXON but I choose to give this game the benefit of the doubt. I was an original Warframe player and I remember how that game first started and how difficult it was to get certain things, but look how far its come.

[jaimecavazos]

Mr. Lukium, great video, I really enjoy when game content creators explain the math involved in whatever topic they are talking about. I will subscribe to your channel because of your great effort explaining and because you supported your explanation with actual data.

[cbirdman]

In addition to my other comments. Nexon has said the global drop rates are in line, which I don’t doubt is true. However, this doesn’t mean that they aren’t manipulating those numbers at the player experience level. For example, they can give 50% of players a 1% drop rate for a specific item and the other 50% a 51% drop rate for the same item. This would have a mean of 25% globally, so they wouldn’t be technically misleading players but adding to the lengthening the grind. This is very simplistic and in reality would be much more granular, driven by an algorithm. This would explain experiences of people getting very lucky and also very unlucky at the same time.

So if you poll of a large number of people, the drop rates would likely fall into line globally. You would need see if there is a significant grouping of people within that poll experiencing both good and bad luck with certain items.

In addition, it has been found that Nexon owns patents for Dynamic RNG that do this exact thing and pushing people to spend money. The question is, does the community feel this is ethical?

[skills]

Thank you for making this video, truly. As a simple dude, trying to do the simplest of things, all this complicated math just goes over my head, however, i do understand one thing, it just doesnt work like that in this game.

[halloweenholiday]

Thank you for the tool and information.
After grinding and getting the full roster of charecters, it had settled on the number 24. So far, I've gotten every character within that limit.

[wolfcovetous]

What i get opening around 600 patterns: Game hate me and RNG hate me too. 0 Energy activator blueprients.
What my friends get opening 100 purple patterns with 3% chances: 2 ultimate characters and 9 energy actvators.
Nice, nexon, nice!

[JassimAlShaikh]

Awesome work! Thank u so much!! Keep it up!