How Big Things Get Done with Prof Bent Flyvbjerg

In this episode of The Thinking Leader Bryce Hoffman and Marcus Dimbleby talk with Bent Flyvbjerg, the world's leading megaproject expert, economic geographer, and the first BT Professor at Oxford University.

They discuss the problem with big projects and small projects. They explore the ‘iterate and simulate’ process and how it can help navigate the early stages of a project. They discuss the psychology behind why we are hardwired to jump into projects without fully considering all potential risks and pitfalls.

Bent explains the planning fallacy and how its concepts can impact our ability to accurately estimate the duration and cost of a project. He also goes into detail about the concept of continuity and the value of experience when it comes to managing projects. Bent, Bryce and Marcus also touch on the topic of power bias and how it can amplify cognitive bias, and discuss strategies for mitigating these biases and ensuring that projects are successful.

In this episode you will learn:
- How to use the iterate and simulate process to navigate the early stages of a project
- Why we are hardwired to jump into projects without considering risks
- The planning fallacy and how it impacts project management
- How continuity and experience can give you an advantage in identifying problems and finding solutions
- How power bias can amplify cognitive bias and learn strategies to mitigate it

Find more information on Bent’s book, How Big Things Get Done, here:

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Bestselling business author Bryce Hoffman and agility expert Marcus Dimbleby talk about decision-making, strategy, resilience and leadership with some of the world’s best CEOs, cognitive scientists, writers, and thinkers in this weekly podcast. Each episode offers new ideas and insights you can use to become a better leader and a better thinker – because bad leaders react, good leaders plan, and great leaders think!

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[JakobJenkov]

There is a significant difference between iterating on the design of a marshmellow tower, where the building material can be reused if it crashes during design (during building), and designing a real building where the building materials might be lost if the building crashes during the building, and where people might get hurt from the falling debris. One scenario does not require much of a plan, whereas the other does.

[marcelairineo]

One of the most interesting episodes! Thank You!

[SZ-vkte]

Thank you! Great discussion and I just got Prof Flyvbjerg’s book

[StefanBerreth]

I often see software development projects rush into delivery without iterating towards a maximum virtual product first because "planning first is waterfall - and we don't do waterfall, we do agile". Where is the misunderstanding here and how can it be squared with misunderstanding slow and proper, iterative planning with as waterfall?

[MotivatedActionGroup]

Great episode. Very informational and brought up great ideas.

[cdk]

The power buyer, is in the beginning of the Dunning Kruger effect.