Will depleted funds put an end to Russia's war in Ukraine? | Conflict Zone

Leading Russian economist Sergei Guriev says Western sanctions are working but warned that the billions Putin still gets will be used to kill Ukrainians. Guriev, who fled Moscow in 2013, says the price cap on Russian oil appears to be working, meaning less money for the Kremlin to buy military technology from third countries like India, China and Turkey. But while Russian technocrats are working to keep the economy afloat, “they help Putin to continue destroying Russia's future.” Asked about whether Putin has changed his long-term goals, Guriev, now a professor and provost at Sciences Po in Paris, says the president has always been corrupt: “He's not an empire builder - he's more of a palace builder.”

Correction from April 13, 2023: In the interview Conflict Zone referred to Mr Guriev as a former Kremlin advisor. We would like to correct the record and state he was in fact a leading Russian economist, former head of the Moscow’s New Economic School and former chief economist at the EBRD (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development). We apologize for the error.

#russia #ukrainewar #putin

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:51 Sarah Kelly welcome
01:08 How long can Putin hold on & fund war?
01:40 Frozen central bank assets vs. oil & gas revenue
02:10 Impact of economic sanctions on battlefield, artillery production
02:40 Classified economic data
03:00 Military technology from third countries: Turkey, India, China, Kazakhstan, & Emirates
04:20 Macroeconomic instability, Russian GDP
04:56 Way of Iran or Venezuela
05:45 Russian recession and decline
06:30 Bureaucrats and alleged Russian war crimes
07:20 Immorality and funding Putin´s war machine to kill Ukrainians & Russia´s future
08:02 Russian businessmen "suicides"
08:20 Murder of Boris Nemtsov, attempted assassination of Alexsei Navalny
09:10 Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on isolation of Moscow, China, Xi Jinping, Global South
09:45 Syria, Eritrea, Nicaragua supporting Russia
10:07 "Friendship without limits" would be weapons without limits and cash without limits
10:20 Russia buys munitions from North Korea and Iran, not China
10:40 Ambassador Fu Cong on rhetoric vs reality
11:35 Western price cap on Russian oil and India
12:45 Bakhmut and Russian domestic stability
13:25 Predicting mass protests and riot police joining them in Russia
14:46 Personal choice to leave Russia in 2013
16:10 e Ilya Yashin, who didn't leave and Vladimir Kara-Murza imprisoned
16:27 Dimitry Peskov on travel restrictions
16:56 Very few happy people in Russia´s inner circle and ICC warrants
18:05 Putin Cold War speech to Bundestag
18:40 Black Sea palace builder, not empire builder
19:50 Putin´s COVID isolation
20:45 His initial social contract growth and corruption vs democracy and checks & balances
22:14 When he´s gone the system will have to change
23:00 New Perestroika or North Korean style repression
23:15 He bet everything he had on war in Ukraine
23:53 Slobodan Milosevic in The Hague,
24:00 Peace requires returning all occupied territory, borders of 1991, pay reparations and send war criminals to tribunals, Russian anti-war committee
25:00 Lessons from post-WWII Germany

Follow DW on social media:

[northascrowsfly]

The lack of interruptions and interjections by the news anchor was a refreshing change. 👍🏼

[JanLion-zbbd]

And Sergei saying he is not brave ... too modest. It was smart to leave in time and he is brave enough to give this remarkably open interview. I admire him.

[USMC]

Great interview. Great to hear from ppl who have fled Russia. I hope his vision of a Russian future without autocracy comes true.

[tomparatube]

I like the way he answers the questions. Very straightforward, no diplomatic bs, or beating around the bush. Bravo Mr Sergei Guriev!👍👍👍

[alanbrown]

Tripple *** for this GREAT interview. Not only for the great performance of the two participants - sharp, incisive, intellegent and well informed, but also to the producers. I will look out for this channel again.

[PsilocybinCocktail]

Never heard of this chap before, but am EXTREMELY impressed at his ability to get the point across in English, with the occasional barbed witticism. Russians like him are a hope for the future, even if we have to go through a Nuremburg first.

[shannonbrown]

This dude was smart to get out ten years ago.

[brucemiller]

Ms Kelly is an excellent interviewer. She speaks clearly and is very understandable. Her questions are excellent and to the point. Excellent work here

[zomfgeclipse]

High quality interview from both people

[apach]

Mr Guriev is very smart and insightful. It is always a great pleasure listening him talk

[sunnydisinfectant]

Amazing interview, he speaks very openly and honestly. A good reminder that Russians have been driven to this point, and real change is possible if good people continue to speak out like him

[brianwarburton]

Excellent interview. It is always a pleasure to listen to the views of someone who has a good insight into the mechanics of this war.

[Eternalspring]

“Autocratic regimes end in unpredictable ways” this is so true, same as abusive relationships. Peace!

[ardeladimwit]

"He is not much of an Empire-builder, but a palace builder and he has a lot of palaces."

[alejandroaragoncr]

What a great interview! Excellent questions and even better answers. Definitely two top professionals. Thanks

[richardhouser]

This man says he is not brave at all, but I think he is. Slava Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes!

[xbreaker]

The words of Sergei, saying that he hopes that Russia will become a free, democratic pro-European country, actually gives me hope for the future of Russia.

[Wozzaatwozza]

Sergei, you are an inspiration to humanity. Your context is, your vulnerable, your kind, you think of others, and you want the world to be a better place. Your doing your best for a distance.

You are an ambassador for Russian people to the world that Russian people are good people. You give the rest of us hope for reform and democracy for Russia.

I hope that you have a bigger role to play in the future. I hope one day Russia becomes diplomatic and you become finance minister and help steer Russia to economic reform and the quality of life for Russians throughout the entire state are enriched by your wisdom and context.

You can measure a man’s strength by his ability to be vulnerable. You are an honourable man. We need more like you.

Thank you Sergei.

And thank you DW for your professionalism. This is the best interview I’ve seen in the last 3 years. Commitment before ego

[sempressfi]

"he's not an empire builder, he's more of a palace builder" 😂
Over the course of the interview, it seemed like he started to relax enough to show personality and make slightly snarky remarks. Would love to talk to him for an afternoon about all of this, seems like he'd be fun to have serious yet comedic convos with about these fragile minded autocrats.

Great interview as always, DW 💙💛

[travelswithted]

I hope that men like him and Navalny can lead Russia in the future and not ex KGB agents.