He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.

Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.

So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.

And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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[Muahaha]

His prediction is Kamala. I saved you all 7 minutes

[victorc]

Predictions don’t work if you don’t VOTE!

[dresdenwarlock]

Cool. But NOBODY GET COMPLACENT OR LISTEN TO POLLS. VOTE! NOTHING IS GUARANTEED OR ASSURED! VOTE LOCALLY, VOTE FOR PRESIDENT! VOTE!

[TigerPalmer]

When the NYT chooses the person making the prediction, you know which candidate they'll "predict" before you even watch the video.

[jackoalltrades]

wait, every Presidential election for 40 years,
why have all that election expense, just ask this guy

[rebeccahenderson]

Check your Voter Registration and VOTE!!!

[smokeykitty]

Women: The vote is private. Vote your own interest. He'll never know.

[josipkomesarovic]

In 2000 he falsely predicted Al Gore's victory.

[wiggafish]

For anyone with a short attention span he said Kamala’s gonna win

[moomie]

This guy always gets hate before the elections, yet he almost always ends up being right.

[npsloopy]

Dr. Lichtman has said on his podcast that the keys will not work unless the voters show up. VOTE!

[ilovekoreamariella]

Americans are very wise! ❤
They'll choose the right person for their country.
I'll watch!

[liamnixon]

Even though this guy says that Kamala Harris will win the election, you never know until it actually happens. Don't be complacent, and get out and vote for your candidate regardless of what predictions say!

[briansass]

"But the outcome is up to YOU. Get out and VOTE!" Best line in a great segment.

[pubby]

Guy may be right. But some of the answers to the keys he mentionned are debatable.

[johndemarinis]

My mom used call a fortune teller too. Get out and VOTE!

[anos]

Reading the comments definitely tells me that the New York Times is catering to their audience.

[steviewang]

Dude's 77, looks 57, got the physical energy of a 37-year-old, and the hair of a 17 year old

[josephjose]

Stopped watching when it was saying the economy is doing good. Same lies NYT 🤦‍♂️

[dominicspey]

The UK begs you lovely US folks to not make the same mistake we made with the Brexit vote, we were extremely complacent and boy have we paid for that. Lots of love, your Atlantic neighbors x