10 Day Trend 14/08/2024 – How could Ernesto impact the UK? – Met Office weather forecast UK

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 14/08/2024. Could a tropical storm in the Caribbean affect the UK weather next week? Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Deakin.

You may also enjoy:


We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.

Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

#weatherforecast #weatherupdate #meteorologist

[rhiannondavies]

Keep up with the "speculative", detailed explanations that don't make false promises 😂 most of us know that predicting the weather is difficult! Never change ❤

[macelven]

Schools went back in Scotland today, and right on cue we have a lovely sunny day 😂

[matthewtrow]

Ernesto sounds like a brand or type of coffee - great name!

[suewright]

Very many thanks Alex, a great deal of probabilities that Ernesto brings. I don’t know why some folk seem to think you should be able to deliver an absolute 10 Day Trend without things such as Ernesto there to complicate things?! Apart from having a split Jet Stream! 😮Oh it really should be so simple! 😉
Thanks Alex, the Met too. Take care everyone

[LoamWolf]

Excellent info as always guys! Fascinating to learn that low pressure mostly forms at either the right entrance or left exit of the jet.

[michaelkelleher]

Thank you Alex. Complex systems indeed that seem to be a more common feature as our poor planet, nature, struggles to balance our toxic living - poisoning everything, including ourselves. Great forecast and analysis as always. Good work by yourself and the team at the Met Office 👍😎 from Dublin.

[Kevin-vcnw]

Pitty we cant chooses witch jet stream we want😂 if there is 2

[Coolyoghurt]

Brilliant weather forecast. Thanks Alex :)

[alayneperrott]

Many thanks, Alex, for including some insights into jet stream dynamics and the future scenarios for Hurricane Ernesto when it reaches the mid-latitudes. It takes real presentation skill to extract some useful take-home messages while being honest about the current sources of uncertainty in such a rapidly changing weather situation!

[usaneebeilles]

Your/teams work and efforts are appreciated.
Thank you. Good health to you all.

[midnightsilver]

I found the red boxes on the ensemble chart very helpful for drawing the eye to the patterns in question 👍🏻. I know the probability might be low when there are less examples in the ensemble but it is really interesting to see the different potential predictions and how many runs produced that variation. There is a lot of information to quickly process on the ensemble charts but the red boxes helped to easily focus us in.👍🏻😄 cheers (I enjoy the ensemble charts! It’s fun to keep some more-likely outlier predictions in the back of our minds. UK weather does enjoy being unpredictable at times 😂, )
Also found the split jet stream here really interesting. Don’t see that too often. Plus fascinating about weather building on the right entrance and left exit of a jet. If you ever want to add more about that to a deep dive I’d be interested to learn more 😄

[SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Thanks for the detailed information Alex

[JordanBrown-ltbj]

This Summer has actually been very dry here, only July being wetter but not by a lot mind. June we only had 8mm and we haven't had more than 2mm since 18th July, people have no right to complain about this Summer. The only criticism is and major one at that is the complete lack of thunderstorms. Just appalling so that will knock a few points off out of 10 this season.

[lesshrubb]

Thanks Alex, a good explanation of a variable set of possibilities.

[michealofloinn]

I’m in Ireland west coast. Plenty of rain and wind for sure. Go raibh maith agaibh👍

[trick]

What changes in each Ensemble Member to give a different forecast outcome please?

[alanduncan]

3 days ago Hottest day of the year !!! - once again for the 80th time this year - Forecast 35 C in central England !!!!
East Midlands airport actual at 1300 hrs 26 C - only 9 C off target.
Always check weather reports from airports especially smaller ones for real weather - Air traffic controllers can't lie about the weather. Large airports with very large jets skew the temperature so avoid Heathrow Gatwick Manchester.

[stephenratcliffe]

How many cubic metres of water would be in a weather system like Ernesto?

[robertjsmith]

Good grape harvest in the south east this year

[Kevin-vcnw]

If we ar being influenced by the storms and where getting the low pressure all the time then it must now be autumn