Markets Are Recovering, But I’m Not Chasing This One!

Hey fellow investors! The markets have rebounded from their bottom two weeks back! The S&P 500 has already rebounded more than 6%. Most Asian and European markets have recovered as well - Singapore’s Straits Times Index or STI has rebounded almost 10% from its bottom. You can almost feel the shift in sentiment — from panic, to relief, and now… maybe even optimism.

Since the start of April, it felt like we were caught in a financial storm — markets were tumbling, the US dropped its tariff bombshell, and investor sentiment took a hard hit. But now, the skies seem to be clearing.

First, the US backtracked slightly — announcing a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. That gave the markets some relief. Then just days ago, another U-turn: electronics like phones and computers were granted exemptions. Suddenly, investors took this as a sign that maybe these tariff threats weren’t so serious after all.

And the markets responded.

But here’s the thing: I’m still skeptical of the sustainability of the recovery. Yes, the market has rebounded sharply, but analysts have cut their full-year S&P 500 forecasts to an average gain of just 2%. Meanwhile, I see some of my friends diving back into the market like it’s still 2023 or 2024 — years when the S&P returned more than 20%. It’s not just here in Singapore either. The Financial Times reported that US retail investors are also buying the dip enthusiastically.

Because markets — like humans — tend to have short memories. Some are rushing back in, convinced that the worst is over, that policymakers won’t really follow through with tough measures. Maybe that’s true. But as long-term investors, not every rebound is worth chasing. We need to ask: Has anything fundamentally changed? Is this just a mood swing, or are there solid reasons to believe the road ahead will be smooth?

In today’s video, I’ll walk you through the four key reasons why I think it might be too early to pop the champagne. Stick around till the end — the final reason might just be the most impactful one of all.

Now, to be clear I’m not turning bearish, but I think it’s time we talk about some deeper risks that are starting to brew under the surface. Especially one that has long-term implications for the way the world views US assets. Even if you don’t invest in the US, remember that the performance of the US markets often sets the tone for the rest of the world, including Singapore.

Before we dive in, let me remind you that this video is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions. I own some of the investments discussed, but what works for me might not work for you.

Alright, let’s get started!

[eckobrandman]

Thanks for the informative video. I've never seen anyone do it better than you. I'm actually investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, and it's been very profitable. I make $65, 000 every week, even though I barely trade. Thanks Anthony Horch for the constant updates on the financial

[heqingsong]

Always good to hear your thoughtful and logical analysis. I don't care about bullish or bearish market. Trade a small percentage of your portfolio rather than going in and out every couple weeks trying to time the market trading went smooth for me as I was able to raise over 5.6 BTC when I started at 1BTC in just few weeks implementing Steve Harrison daily trading signals and tips.❤❤❤❤✊✊✊✊

[hearttoheartstories]

Dca as usual to CFA Reit etf to continue getting paid to wait and dca vwra. Don’t stock pick to remove the emotional side of things.

[JohnHoon-bujo]

Calm before the storm for the US markets. I expect a financial storm or financial earthquake to appear in the 2nd half (after June).

[JohnHoon-bujo]

US 1Q25 GDP -0.3%. 2Q GDP expected to be negative. US could have negative GDP every quarter (3Q & 4Q) for 2025 if the tariffs continue until end of this yr. This 1Q25 US GDP is worse than expected because most analysts expect between 0% to less than 1%.

[Space_Explorer_moon]

I am staying in S Reit for the time being. The recent crash has tested a new low for some blue S REITs. I pick up high HKEX high dividend stocks and HK REIT. I will be accumulating cash now, and let's see what's going to happen after the 90 days.

[hc]

Good time to buy reits. Sora has been dropping. UK, Australia have cut rates. More to come..reits with properties there will benefit. Everyone keep looking at US rates, I think it's not right unless the reit has lot of properties in the US. You don't take loans in US$ if the property is not in the US. My 1 cents opinion

[lifengzhang]

Jus entered during last 2 few weeks, but not now, I would enter probably in June/ July again.

[kevincheong]

Fixed amount DCA on monthly basis. Don't chase the dip.

[horlick]

A good analysis, credible.
On the other hand, in another thread, the videos of a Encik Loo seem more and more confusing, lots swings and flip flops. Are they click baits and attempts to grow following by trying to project himself as the 'economists' who knows more than everyone else (in spite of his empty words otherwise), and create dependency of others on him? Seem very dangerous for those unaware, and rather concerning....

[BladeKnight]

Hi Bro, thanks for sharing your analysis and thoughts through this video….awesome!

On your last point on investability of US assets, do you have any contingency plan in mind to share should the US dollar collapse (not likely but base on crazy Trump policies….it beginning to draw some parallel resemblance to collapse of German Deutsche Mark post WW1 and the Great Depression)? Maybe store in gold or bitcoin?

[caligula]

How bout investing into Chinese stocks? They are currently undervalued and on the path to recovery