Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad

Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad

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Video Producers:
Oliver Franke
Charles Street

Research & Writing:
Emanuele Martinelli, Oliver Franke

Edit & Animations:
Timothy Simpson

[Jeroen_Maes]

You can't quote 2015 studies about Russia's possibilities to isolate the Baltic states, no one imagined then that Sweden and Finland would become NATO members.

[markmuller]

The isolation of the baltic has been effectively nullified by the accession of Finland ans Sweden in NATO

[ValensBellator]

“A 2015 study”
I somehow suspect their findings would be a lot less pessimistic these days 😂

[cestusfr]

Kaliningrad lost a lot of pressure it had over Poland when Poland finished the Vistula Spit canal too.

[g.aathoz]

How up to date are those estimations of Russia taking the Baltics really? The same experts who said Ukraine would fall in a matter of days? I think the only thing we know for sure is that we know very little and that the conditions of war have changed dramatically since the last great European conflicts.

[MrTryAnotherOne]

1. Kaliningrad (Königsberg) is a lost cause and couldn't be defended anyway. 2. Russia needs the equipment elsewhere. 3. The Kremlin knows dang well that NATO has no aggressive intentions towards Russia.

[reinerheiner]

Putin simply needs his military personel and equipment in ukraine. He can easily later rearm kaliningrad. He knows its safe from nato because nato would never dare to attack first. Any other explanation is just overthinking it.

[ehsnils]

Everyone talks about closing the Suwalki Gap, but then continues to totally ignore the fact that there's no infrastructure there at all.
The actual infrastructure is going right through Vilnius and Kaunas (look at the railroad) and that means that to close the gap a lot more effort is needed and the land between 54 and 55 degrees north has to be secured. This isn't some small operation.
There are some small roads around Suwalki, but it would just create a logistical nightmare to just try to close the gap.
An incursion taking Vilnius and Kaunas would definitely be an Article 5 event.
So I'd expect that Russia will just stick to making noise and test the water now and then with small action, invading the Baltic states could be way too expensive.
For Russia Kaliningrad is now just a liability, not an asset. It started to become a liability as soon as the Baltic states became independent. With Sweden and Finland in NATO it's even more so and it makes sense to remove most military assets from there and just use it as a forward base with limited capabilities and mostly used for intelligence purposes.

[ii]

I don't think de-escalation is the goal, as just recently Russia declared its intentions to unilaterally change its maritime borders with Finland and Lithuania, and also removed some buoys from the Narva river demarcating its border with Estonia. Russia has ambitions in the Baltic region, but Ukraine just happens to be bleeding them dry at the moment. These recent actions are like a direct counterweight to moving equipment away from Kaliningrad, as if Russia wants to avoid sending a message of de-escalation at all costs.

[ettoreatalan]

Historically, Königsberg (its real name) is not a Russian territory. Putin keeps forgetting this in his historical claims.🤔

[johnsmiff]

Something makes me think if they tried this tomorrow, Poland would jump at the opportunity to transform Kaliningrad into a part of the sea floor

[Nikita-yyhi]

10:47
Narrator: from 10b to 15b!
Graphs on the screen: from 11.8b to 14.3b...

[akmalhafiz]

36 to 60 hours to take the capital of the 3 Baltic states. That's basically the same things they said when Russia invaded Ukraine 2 years ago. Where are we right now?

[HessionDrasha]

Replacing the energy infrastructure, disconecting the baltics from russia and to the rest of europe, has happened far quicker than anyone thought possible. The transport infrastructure is coming along at pace as well. Making the baltics even less vulnerable, every day that passes.

[Lucas_Antar]

Sweden: Applies to NATO
Russia: let’s threaten Gotland that’ll show them we are peaceful.

[TheJere]

russia: NATO is an existential threat to us. *Purposefully weakens their NATO borders*
russia: We are just training we will not invade Ukraine. *Invades Ukraine*

[anatolyrozhkov]

Fun fact: the high-raise in the background just above the channel 13:49 is the largest building in Kaliningrad Region and it was meant for the city administration. It's been siting abandoned for over 30 years cos the Russian government can't find money to complete it.This alone speaks volumes about the state of affairs in the country that is trying to take on the entirety of Western Europe and North America. Putin is just stark mad.

[rogerwilco]

I think that with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, it has become a lot harder to isolate and invade the Baltics

[tmike_tc]

Kaliningrad is important because that is where the little man with the huge table docks his superyacht - the one they snuck out of the Hamburg shipyards without paying the bill.

Not that he will ever step foot on it again, but.

[pcread]

S-400 has been shown to be vulnerable to ATACMS and other NATO missiles. Poland's order of many, many HIMARS means Kaliningrad and the Suwalki gap are untenable in the event of conflict. All oil and other cargo shipping from russian Baltic ports would be halted.