Former Global Elite Issues Bleak Warning About the U.S. Economy

Harvard University economics professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff predicts a dire outlook for the U.S. economy as the odds of a "significant" recession are high.

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[jmarie]

Thank you Steve! Take care everybody!

[natotomato]

At this point, an economist warning of recession is like my wife’s boyfriend telling me my wife might be unfaithful… 😂

[simon]

It doesn’t take a Harvard economist to figure this out! 🙄

[The_Victorius_One]

There are a lot of zombie corporations and they all need to fail. *zombie corporation means doesn't generate the cashflow to maintain operations and interest payments without borrowing more, i.e. a money pit.

[brucelayman]

Harry Truman once said "If you took all the economist and placed them end-to-end, they would point in all directions." Economics has never been and still isn't a science or anything approaching a science. Economists will always point in all directions and show you graphs and statistics they think are important. They will not only contradict each other, they will contradict themselves. Will people buy less for Christmas-probably. Will they spend more-probably. Will retailers cut their margins-probably. All economists will look at the same data and come to different conclusions.

[deadend]

They aren't going to cut rates. The old normal is over.

[tonylu]

I know one rate that will go up. Shoplifting. The store I work at lost around 7 million in theft last year. While I'd like it to be less I'm predicting it will be more than that this year.

[willlywillly]

I think its going to bad Christmas sales. Layoffs start after the first of the year.

[thejohnnerparty]

QT is way more important than interest rate. The only way to bring asset prices down is QT.

[TheFamilyFirst]

Recession...we are in one, duh. Depression is more like it.

[indiescripter]

Steven, me thinks this holiday season will be Santa Pause rather than Santa Claus.

[rescuemethod]

Lack of confidence in the president and administration: -10% excess inventory leading to discounts and lower margins: -15% recession means lower discretionary income for presents: -10% . theft and higher labor costs: -5% I see 30-40% lower holiday sales and profits.

[myutubex]

I think it will be very slim Xmas Steve. As many people are living off their credit cards or worse. Also ... lots of fear & uncertainty in these times.

[gregorydefeo]

They say Dollar Tree, et al, will do great this coming holiday season.

[nikkisav]

I think holiday season will be “meh” no way stellar, but not “totally dismal” either, but it will be definitely below average, “less than average to poor”! I have rental properties. Tenants are beginning to say they can’t pay rent, with everything else they have to pay. Goodness. It is what it is, I forsee lots of turnover and movement in housing next.

[brexit]

What are we told EVERY TIME WE INVEST IN A STOCK? …..
“Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results”
WHEN WILL WE STOP USING CHARTS OF “PAST PERFORMANCE” to predict “FUTURE RESULTS”?

You know what they say is the definition of INSANITY!

[darkmatterbattlerap]

I believe this holiday season will be unimpressive. Last year, people spared no expense. People are being very tight this year. There's also so much competition. I think the majority of companies that were expected to have a good holiday season(in relation to a bar that was set lower) will underperform most expectations. Large purchases are being impacted by rates so people are trying to save while small purchases are being impacted by inflation.

The lesser of two evils(or that's what we may be told)may be to hike rates seemingly into infinity, way higher than we're forecasting. This would be unforseen. If it becomes in our best interest as a nation to strengthen the dollar, it would shuffle the cards.

We may very well see some sort of reset in the price of assets all over the world. If we're heading into post growth economy It may benefit the establishments or whoever to essentially crash the market so hard to the system must be changed fundamentally or otherwise. In doing so, the worlds assets may see a great reset of sorts down the road.

[MsTyrie]

I'll try to keep this short. Higher rates ➡ margin squeeze ➡ vulnerable companies (don't have pricing power) fold ➡ survivors (in fewer numbers) dominate their sectors, thanks to the Fed.
I'm not saying this is done on purpose. It's just the inevitable business cycle.

[paulbunyon]

Inflation is still being confused with CPI. They are different animals. Inflation is deficit spending by governments being facilitated by central banks. Stop that and you will stop inflation.

[vincentyeo]

Just remember you won't plunge into dire straits facing any liquidity problem when you are sitting firmly on your sh!tload of cash.