Why Should We Shelter In: A Computer Simulation?

March 19, 2020: Why Should We Shelter In: A Computer Simulation?

Computer Simulation of what happens when 1 sick person is in a population of 200 people, and how the movement of people can accelerate spread or significantly slow it down.

1:45 Doing nothing
4:12 1 in 4 people move around
5:58 1 in 8 people move around

Visualizing the big picture makes you think why doesn’t moving sick dot just stop moving so it doesn’t spread to the other dots. But since we don’t know who exactly has the Coronavirus, one assumption that may helps is to assume we all have it and self-quarantine. This may up the percentage closer to the 75-88% needed to flatten the curve significantly.

Hi this is Dr. George Yang, I’m a double board certified specialist in Ear Nose and Throat/Head and Neck Surgery and Facial Plastic Surgery, based in New York City.

In this Coronavirus Pandemic, the help that people need is existential and I will do my best to help with information which will help better explain what the experts mean by “Flatten the curve” why “Sheltering In” will help to do that.

The most visual demonstration of what has happened in other countries, and what will happen here in the United States is from a Washington Post Article entitled. “Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially , and how to “flatten the curve.” By Harry Stevens on March 14th 2020. I will post the link in the description below:

In this article, there are 4 computer simulations of an outbreak showing how quickly it spreads over time, without any social distancing or sheltering in, as well as 75% adopting social distancing vs. 88% adopting social distancing.

Along the top of the simulation is a graph which shows how many people are Healthy, Sick and Recovered. It strongly demonstrates the difference between doing nothing (1:45) versus having 1 in 4 people move around (4:12) versus 1 in 8 people move around (5:58) can make in flattening the curve.

In a separate video, I will explain how “flattening the curve” will help in relation to our healthcare system. Delaying the number of people getting sick will buy time for more testing, Personal Protective Equipment for healthcare workers, for more people to recover and perhaps create a herd immunity and development of vaccines.

If you found this video helpful please like and subscribe for future videos.

This is Dr. George Yang signing off, see you on the next video.

[rogerstarkey]

The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of one procedure adopted by South Korea.
Essential food parcels delivered to the home.
Together with the tracking app, these helped limit social contact at one of the most "dangerous" places, food stores.

Living in the UK, I've been distressed by the irresponsible behaviour of both store owners and shoppers with regard to mask wearing.

They seem to imagine that "distancing" is sufficient both outside and inside the store, where as few as 10-15% of shoppers (and staff!) wear any face covering.

If our Governments had imposed an *early* lockdown, closed foodstores to shippers, and recruited staff and couriers to pack and deliver essential foods for one month, then either delivered masks, or provided instructions to produce them, with mandatory use in closed public areas, we would be in a far better state.

This *must* be planned for prior to the next virus. (There *WILL* be one!)

[MaynardsSpaceship]

We don't have an infinite number of beds and supplies. We can't all be infected at the same time. Why is this concept difficult to grasp for folks??
I explain to my loved ones that grocery shopping is no longer just grocery shopping. It's a necessary task, but now it's a risky one. I'm youngest in my family and have offered to do the shopping for everyone, but they won't listen to me. They're so stubborn, and that's the most polite adjective I could think of... My mother literally whined like a child, "But I go to the I'm hearing people say they're afraid; they're behavior is like nothing even happened.

[arieltaylormo]

No one seems to be discussing ways to increase your immunity so that you can lessen the effects of the coronavirus on your body. I think that poor nutrition leaves us open to the ravages of the virus. Maybe we should work on ways to strengthen our immune systems while we wait on a vaccine. The research to do that is already available. We're not using it.

[adamsmith]

Too late for this - almost all should know this already. Now is time to open the economy safely and rebuild it quickly. Every day counts.

[chrish]

Thank you for all your helpful videos. I hope you will discuss ways to boost the immune system. What is your opinion of Vitamin D? I have read that moving patients outdoors was bebeficial during the 1918 flu.

[oscartiscareno]

Thank you Doctor for all you do. I have a ? I have a few surgical masks left in my household can I rotate them and use them after certain days

[RT-yctk]

Dr. I want to help. I am not able to get out for supplies, what can I do?