The Line That Explains The Coming Housing Depression

In this video, we explore the growing concerns about a potential real estate market crash, focusing on insights from renowned economist Robert Shiller. By analyzing the key factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis—rapidly increasing home prices, price-to-income ratios, and speculative buying—we draw parallels to today's market, particularly in the southern United States. We'll delve into the data, assess the risks, and discuss why some experts believe we may be headed for another downturn. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and check out my Substack for more in-depth analysis and updates!

Substack

[sirheisenberg]

Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.

[demisemedia]

When houses became an “investment” it was only a matter of time before greedy people and companies started buying them up. I know 4 people who own multiple houses in my area and I can see why there is a “housing shortage”. That’s just 4 people i personally know here in my local area. Now imagine how many more people are doing the same thing.

[ericturn]

If you want an answer to "should I buy a home right now" The answer is always, "you should buy when you can afford to buy" That's it. That is the only answer that anyone can or should give you. No one can predict the future. if you are trying to time the market, you are just gambling with your future. Sometimes you will be right, sometimes you will be wrong. And the same goes with the question "should I sell my home right now". Again, you should sell when it makes sense for you. Schiller is right to not want to answer those questions. Because even the best minds in history, have no idea what the future holds. Yes housing prices will eventually come down. Yes there will eventually be a crash. And yes there will eventually be a bubble if there isn't already one. But the real issue and the only one that matters, is that NO ONE can tell you when. If I had a crystal ball and told you with 100% certainty that housing prices are going to crash 50% in 2027, you would automatically assume that you should wait to buy until then. But what if between now and 2027, housing prices went up 300%? They would be 50% higher in 2027, than they are right now, even with a 50% crash. For the love of God, stop trying to time the market.

[MisterEae]

We are in a weird manipulated real estate bubble.
There are abandoned houses and working homeless people everywhere.

[billfrehe]

A housing depression? Nobody in the video ever mentions this or explains how we'll get to a "housing depression." You can't get the type of conditions in the housing market talked about in this video with the current state of ultra-low employment. We're also heading to a decrease in interest rates for the remainder of the year and all next year. At most what we'll see is a plateau in housing prices.

[HoneyBadger]

Decentralized Protocol that does not have a Single Point of Failure.

[chumps]

10 minutes to say the experts say "I don't know"? We all know the market will cool off (correct) sometime in the future. The question is when?

[Samuel-oxyi]

It’s all GREED ! That’s what all this is about. 😂😂. No matter what they say Or it’s not an easy answer. ALWAYS COMES DOWN TO GREED

[tubulardude]

I’m stopping at the four minute mark because
1: Miami market has been seriously affected by the condominium collapse and new laws regarding building inspections and therefore HOA fees have skyrocketed.
2: he makes no mention of the fact that corporate investors have been buying up single-family homes at a record pace since 2008 and that continues today.

[haze]

Because all the major players were BAILED OUT in 2008...
No lesson was learned. It's worse now. 👈

[andrewclodfelter]

He lost me at "Janet Yellen I admire"

[insidethefire]

The problem with the housing market is that you just don't know how long its disassociation from reality can continue--look at Australia for example, the market has been totally removed from affordability for well over a decade.

[LizaPhilips]

Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA, there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable, but others say it's risky. Any advice?

[Mike-rtjt]

Tough* to make a prediction in a fake environment.

Imagine a boat, it can hold up to 10, 000 gallons of water before it sinks. There's a hole leaking 500 gallons a minute into the hull, how long till it sinks? Hard to say, there's some Uncle Sam dude down there w/ a pump and he refuses to tell us the specs.

[JonSmith]

Arizona inventory is up 55% over last year.

[Joerico-gc]

Amazing video, I noticed that most people work for 40yrs to have $1M in their retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k to $50k into trading from just few months ago and now they’re multimillionaires…

[DEG]

GM lays off over 1, 000 salaried software, services employees today…

[timh.]

Because he said "there are smart people at the FED & he admires Janet Yellin" nothing he says is worth listening tk!

[anaveragehuman]

according to zillow, our house near raleigh, nc increased in "value" by 70% between jan '21 and jun '22 when nothing changed except the value of the dollar. yeah our networth looks healthier but our kids won't be able to afford anything worthwhile for a long time unless there's reversion to the mean/trend. gov't induced devaluation of currency should be criminal.

[charlottebrigham]

I would like Schilllers opinion regarding the effect of AirBnB and Institutional buyers on this housing market. The dynamics r now different than they were in 2008 as these two factors entered the market n took up the slack in inventory