Ukrainian advances will be slower as we get closer to winter

"The winter may make the advancement slower."

Both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers will suffer as temperatures drop to below -20 degrees this winter, but Russia's longer supply lines, low morale and lack of equipment will worsen the conditions, says Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, Senior Lecturer at the Department of War Studies at King's College London.

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[jibblehardicardi]

The fact that ukranians have more hi-tech equipment like socks, sleeping bags, waterproof jackets, hats and boots than the Russian conscripts puts them at a distinct advantage

[clineshaunt]

During WW2, many major offensives were launched during winter: Battle of the Bulge, Moscow counteroffensive, the Soviets launching counteroffensives at Stalingrad in a snow storm to surround the Germans, to name a few. NATO nations will probably provide the Ukrainians with the winter clothing they need. The Russians on the other hand, well...

[salsanchez]

Actually, winter can be an advantage for properly supplied, motivated, and trained troops. Witness the Finns vs the Soviets. The Finns were completely outgunned, outmanned, and had no air force to speak of. Yet they were mobile through the snow and were excellent marksmen. Hence they whipped the Soviets in many battles. Additionally, the Finns knew how to dress for the cold, make fires, and provide shelter. If the Ukrainians learn from the Finns, then their advances might well speed up in winter because their tracked vehicles will have good traction on the frozen soil and they should be able to continually outflank the poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly led, and poorly motivated Russians, many of whom will be green, freshly mobilized troops who will have difficulty avoiding frostbite and trench foot, much less defending themselves against good Ukrainian troops who have cut off their supplies/command & control with HIMARS and are attacking them from different directions all at once. Slava Ukraine!

[andrewjohnston]

Given that among Ukraine's allies are Finland, Norway and Sweden with all their expertise and equipment geared towards winter warfare maybe the next few months can provide opportunities to mount attacks on the Russians rather than going on the defensive.

[keithrosenberg]

I am guessing that the Ukrainian will use winter equipment and try to keep the offensives going. Kherson especially.

[rc]

I strongly suspect the Ukranians will fight even harder during the winter! They have the momentum, motivation and moral. This can be done!

[skitpare]

The Krab artillery got heating/AC and a water boiler for tea and washing 😏

[keithkuckler]

NATO forces all train in winter. It can be done, the Finns proved very adept at stopping the initial Russian invasion in the Winter War. The Ukrainains are not ignorant of the weather, they live with it. and, if they have better equiptment and supplies than the Russians, it will work in their favor. It will be a challenge, but, the Ukrainians have proven to be very creative. We could ship them snow mobiles, and, small four wheel drive all terrain vehicles for small scale harassment of the Russians.

[tyree]

Q: "How do infantrymen survive in the Winter?"
A: They freeze their a*ses off, even with the best gear. Because the amount it takes to stay properly warm (i.e. comfortable) is too much to fight in (i.e. maintain mobility). Sickness and lack of food are the primary dangers, but the lack of shelter is the biggest, because trying to sleep at night and not freeze to death is a completely different challenge. Remember, fire and heat on a battlefield gets you killed, so there won't be any open campfires. Prepare to freeze your a*ses off and I hope that Ukraine gets equipped well enough to maintain the momentum (which I suspect they will, as NATO is well-trained in winter warfare).

[qui-si-sana]

Fantastic and very professional a to z analysis . Very spot on in response to the coming winter "the Russians are used to the cold ❄️ " . ;. I posit so are the Ukrainians . Slava Ukraine ❤️

[jansenart]

Part of the many, many problems the initial armor and vehicle column advancement toward Kiev had was the fact that all their tankers kept their vehicles idling for warmth. This compounded the problems they had with soldiers and supply officers selling of diesel for roubles on the dollar. Fuel was a major issue with how the column failed to advance the way the generals (incompetent in many other respects but also this) expected. Expect to see hundreds more snow-covered, otherwise poorly-maintained, out of fuel but functional and abandoned RusFed tanks before the spring thaw.

[williamgatheist]

Give them a call the Canadian Military trains on Snowmobiles

[farqsideways]

It's not winter that's the problem, it's the wet season leading up to it.

[fredcox]

As long as people have adequate food, clothing, and shelter from wind, they can stay warm at extremely cold temperatures without external sources of heat. High calorie content food is the key since with it, the body generates its own heat. Fires and idling vehicles generally provide thermal and often visual signatures that can draw enemy fire. Fortunately for the Ukrainians. they seem to feed even stray dogs better than the Russians care for their troops.

[abrahamdozer]

The Canadian army routinely trains in minus 20° C conditions over the normal course of the year. It isn't a "one shot deal" like the Arctic training that British forces receive, for example. Even Canadian reservists practise in what Europeans would consider to be extreme cold on weekends! The Ukrainian climate is very similar to that of a lot of Canada and here's hoping that the training Canada is currently providing to the Ukrainian army includes Arctic warfare.operations. Note: A soldier fighting at those temperatures requires 6, 000+ calories a day and a lot of hot fluids to keep the body core warm. The Allies need to step up the supply of MRE ration packs to the Ukrainian army along with good quality winter gear. More bullets, more rations!

[satadenai]

cold weather might make it easier to target warm objects/vehicles/camps, unless you're short on those advanced technologies

[davidstephen]

The challenges posed to Ukraine will also become challenges for the Russians. It appears that the equipment provided to the Russians has been pretty sub-standard so why not just keep them on their toes (through continued military pressure) and let them freeze? As long as Ukraine is provided with the best winter / nordic equipment and clothing a harsh winter could be a blessing.

[namethatisnottakenyo]

8:20 there is this state of the art invention known as a tent. Then again given how poorly Russian troops are equipped, maybe they don't even have those.

[geoffgill]

Guessing the winter will slow the Ukrainian military but not stop them

[jjsmallpiece]

Basically Russian tactics and troop motivation hasn't changed since WW2