Rolex Prices Continue to Drop! BUT, a Couple of Unlikely Horological Heroes Emerge from the Data!

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[geralddorrian]

These watch companies have deluded themselves. Not every watch is worth $15k. They’ve raised prices soooo much in places like JLC and VC that people are turned off. People are willing to spend that money on a watch were the bulk of it is safe in the secondary market but when you instantly lose 40-60% it doesn’t matter if you like the watch for the watch itself.
Obviously modern machine methods, marketing and solid end-links with milled clasps cost money but it shouldn’t cost what these companies are charging. They are pricing the real watch buyer out of the market and I believe in the long run they will regret it.

[ajisotadxing]

Go anywhere in public and 90% of the people you see are wearing Apple Watches or some type of smartwatch. Very very few wearing analog watches anymore. Pretty soon the supply of analog watches will be plentiful and prices will keep dropping. The drama and days of impossible to find Rolex steel sports will be over

[stevejukic]

If you are anxious about the prices of Rolex going up or down you should not own one because you can not afford one. You will miss out enjoying the watch which you should be wearing ever day.

[peekay]

I hate to say it, but in a year or two the "vintage" (neo-vintage) prices -- as a whole -- will also go down. Let's face it, most Rolex buyers just want a Rolex for the status, without knowing much about them. Today, a ton of buyers buy "vintage" only because they can't buy them new from ADs. But as supplies continue to increase and availability become more normal, these people will buy new instead of vintage. Hence vintage prices will inevitably drop.

[scottprice]

I bought a silver dial 1968 1601 (Probably a 9), and a 1965 1016 (Probably an 8) in 2013.I’m in about $6500. Got sport and dress covered. My view of the future? Similar to the car market- a permanent impairment to the new market . The pandemic was a generational peak.

[peterkapusi]

Where do you get your data from? Would love to have a similar analysis each month. Great job!

[jdwxflyer]

Great insights, Austin! Happy to see your regular updates again.

[mimikatz]

I hope Richmont keeps declining! They have over priced everything and it’s disgusting what they did with JLC prices

[Uncle_Monkey]

Date just are trending because of cost. Barrier to entry and availability are there for the date just to thrive.

In regard to price increases, they will continue to happen. Brands will continue to increase and force the consumer to pay more, relatively the older watches (vintage) may bump up as well.

[greatchalla]

Yup….great update Austin, having said that I ❤ my last Rolex purchase in 2022…..buying the Red Text Sea Dweller 126600…..it’s a huge visual improvement on my failing eye sight and the comfort feels as good as my vintage 16600…. however the legibility is a big improvement. Vintage watches are the legacy’s that spurred the growth in the market phenomenon we’ve seen today GMT three handers are superb long term holds along with the 16600 S.D. Oh….BTW, the retail price from the A.D’s has increased on Sea Dweller’s from 2022…..by about two thousand dollars.

[Polo-ve]

I would only buy at new at an authorized dealer. Grey market I would get vintage and Neo vintage Rolex’s. I got my Rolex at authorized dealer brand new.

[inlandwatchreviews]

Great Information, this is still a correction. back to normal.

[diverbp]

Even if the watch is selling above retail on the gray market, it does not always mean you can buy it at retail from the AD and flip it for a profit - the gray dealers are really low-balling sellers these days...

[AdityaSingh-fzwb]

Hi Austin,
Need some advice .. I am considering buying my first Rolex finally (I know last year I told you I won’t be buying 🫣) … back In Tokyo again this year !
Question - which date sub ref would you recommend i consider.. the one with ceramic bezel ? Also, I am seeing prices of close to USD 7500 in the US.. is that a better deal to consider ? Also - I have recently seen pics of OP Day-date 36 mm at very sharp pricing… should I consider buying that instead as a first Rolex ? Have a desk job in the lending space so I wear formals to work ? Currently my go to watch is the JLC sector dial or the GP 38mm GMT Alarm !

[Fatboylo-ln]

I’m trolling my ad hard for playing the false scarcity game. I keep telling him Im suprised you don’t have a ton of subs, you see how many on secondary markets? Literally thousands of them. There’s no way you get that many people buying these up, he said well I’m getting a ton of watches but the demand is still much higher than what I’m receiving. Not sure I’m buying his BS

[GrumblingForesight]

Thanks for the insightful analysis Austin!

[johnrb]

What’s Austin’s commission rate? He seems really knowledgeable.

[neil]

Funny to hear VC, IWC and JLC descibed as "toxic sludge".. 😀

[mimikatz]

Btw Austin it’s red (bad) & black (good)!

As for the 2nd hand market I am not as interested as I am 2/3 for Rolex sports models from the AD and the vintage ones do not interest me. I am waiting on a BLNR that I can get next year with a bit of a push, but financially more sorted to get it in 2026

[albertsylvester]

GOOD NEWS LET THE PRICE KEEP DROPPING MORE AND MORE FOR US WATCH LOVERS THANKS FOR THE UPDATE