A conversation with Peter Wadhams : The Methane Threat

In part two of our conversation, Peter Wadhams explains the risks posed by huge methane emissions that are being caused by arctic ice loss, and we discuss the difficulties and frustrations faced by scientists trying to communicate climate issues to a wider public.

Links to all four conversations :

#peterwadhams #climatechange #arcticice #methaneburst #globalwarming #campfire #carboncapture #geoengineering #arcticamplification #oceanconveyorbelt

[duncanmckeown]

Peter Wadhams...one of my environmental heroes! I learned so much from reading his wonderful (if scary!) book, "A Farewell to Ice".

[JosephNordenbrockartistraction]

This should be shared to all the young people fed up with what goes on in DC and consumer commercial news.

[TheChiefpmt]

An outstanding interview with a great mind. Thank you!

[donfox]

Every once in a while I feel like the frog in the boiling pot.

[Gkuljian]

This conversation is incomplete without addressing the aerosol masking effect. Otherwise, I find this to be the most "chilling" factor we face. Thank you for this discussion.

[donfox]

Huissier is a very kind and believable man.

[lawrencetaylor]

Thanks, I always like seeing Mr UnderArctic. It is too bad he wasn't invited on the submarie last summer. I am sure he would have seen something striking, probably fissuring of the thick multi-year ice and would have given us a heads up on the Swiss Cheese Summer we are experiencing.

[petertremblay]

Wait to see the scorching summer coming up since methane is already in heavy concentration!

[teethompson]

I have been following Prof. Wadhams' climate message. I agree with his views on SUV's in the US. I think there is a positive feedback loop here and just like melting ice caps and methane leaks it's no a "positive" thing.
With so much rain and flooding people now need high-profile vehicles. I need to replace my old car and struggle with buying an SUV or another sedan which is much closer to the ground.

[chinookvalley]

6:30 Here we are two years down the road, and it's too late. Been nice knowin' ya.

[GroovyVideo]

life on earth is toast - i have been warning people for almost 40 years- they said i was full of shit - i give up

[valhala]

"Just have a Think" is realizing the futility of the situation.

[donfox]

So does this mean I shall have to give up my evening sherry?

[MotherNatrsSon]

Why no links to the other parts of the interview in the description?

[dallastaylor]

Are they doing any research about when this methane from East S ice shelf? Also, when does the ocean stop accepting carbon and start off gassing it?

[TheDoomWizard]

I won't get done I agree. It will shoot up. I've accepted it's over for us.

[grindupBaker]

At 3:58 Peter has greatly disappointed me with "gives you 0.6 of a degree of warming straight away". No, that is greatly massively incorrect. I have Peter's book and I've read it and found it highly informative and enjoyable but clearly, for a Cambridge physicist, Peter has a vast knowledge gap on this topic outside his field of specialty that all other WG1 climate scientists (think of Kevin Trenberth) know well and is simple and obvious. Peter confused Earth with Mars or any planet that doesn't have water oceans. The TOA forcing never ever causes any measurable increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) "straight away" due to the oceans. There's even a formal climate scientist's phrase for it "surface climate response". Jim Hansen discusses it and is sure its slope should be 25% higher but Jim Hansen doesn't say its slope should be infinite, a, vertical line. So here's how it works: The present accumulated residual energy imbalance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) is a "forcing" of 0.85 w / m**2 (measured by Argo floats) and that's what is pushing heat into the oceans and warming the surface/air. So let's say the 50 Gt (38 GtC) CH4 methane pulse is all released tomorrow afternoon March 21, 2019. It causes instant but brief warming of a few degrees over northern Asia as it blows south (in reality the CH4 methane wouldn't be released in one day so this the brief instant warming would be indiscernable) but no warming above oceans. When the winds have essentially mixed it all around Earth over a few days or maybe a bit longer it settles down and is now causing an additional energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) (additional "forcing"). For example, in the tropics the extra 17.8 ppmv of CH4 methane instantly (after winds have mixed it there) causes an additional energy imbalance of 4.30 w / m**2 on a sunny day and 3.33 w / m**2 on a day with pouring rain. Compare these huge "forcings" with the 3.71 w / m**2 that is known to result from doubling CO2 (CH4 is far more powerful). There is no surface/air temperature increase at all yet. Other places on Earth for summer & winter for clear & rainy days it causes a warming imbalance of 1, 8, 4.6, 2.7, 2.9 w / m**2 (and innumerable amounts in that range). So if I take 3.50 w / m**2 as a good working global estimate for a good 1st approximation then the TOA forcing (the energy imbalance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA)) just increased in a few days from 0.85 w / m**2 to 0.85 + 3.50 = 4.35 w / m**2 (equal to a little under 2% increase in solar radiation if that had been the cause, a massive increase due to the 50 Gt (38 GtC) CH4 methane pulse. Now warming starts. Instantly the oceans start taking up heat at a rate of 69.6 Zettajoules instead of the present 13.7 Zettajoules. The continual winds keep mixing the top 20 m - 200 m (90 m average) so the surface warms quite slowly, not in the slightest "gives you 0.6 of a degree of warming straight away" like Peter incorrectly said. The 4.35 w / m**2 warms the top 90 m by 0.36 degrees over 12 months. Land would warm more rapidly in the centres of continents. Overall Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) would rise steadily by ~0.45 degrees or thereabouts over 12 months. This is unprecedented global warming or course but certainly not "0.6 of a degree of warming straight away". The rate of warming would be continuously slowing as the warmer surface sent more heat to space, as the cool oceans brought water to the surface and as hydroxyl ions removed a portion of the CH4 methane each year. It's too much work just for an ootoob comment that nobody reads, understands or cares about anyway to figure out the details of the remaining warming time.

[thalesnemo]

Key comments at at 3:50 and 7:00 ! So the tipping is within the next two years!

[Battery-kfvu]

As one can see on the map there is an area south of the Bering strait that is shallow and that is ice free most of the year. Why hasn't it produced a methane bomb a long time ago?

[Campaigner]

One of the times I really hope an expert is dead wrong....