China's Power: Up for Debate (Proposition 1)

The challenges and opportunities presented by China’s rise are hotly contested. ChinaPower's annual conference features leading experts from both China and the U.S. to debate core issues underpinning the nature of Chinese power.

Proposition 1: If Beijing and Taipei do not come to an agreement on unification by 2035, China will use military force to invade Taiwan.

FOR: James Fanell
(Former Director of Intelligence and Information Operations, U.S. Pacific Fleet)
Fellow
Geneva Centre for Security Policy

AGAINST: Timothy R. Heath
Senior International Defense Researcher
RAND Corporation

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[centerleft]

The better debate topic should be: If China use force for Taiwan unification, would U.S. gets involved? Everything depend on U.S. If U.S. says NO, we will not help, then Taiwan will start the unification negotiation immediately. If U.S answers YES (like U.S towards Japan), the China will not start the force unification until China is absolutely sure it can win not just in the first island chain, but secure all the commercial sea lanes to Middle East and Europe. That could be beyond 2035 to more like 2050 if it is possible at all.
The ambiguity of U.S. attitude will cause the miscalculation either from Chinese leadership or Taiwanese independent party that will start the war.

[jt]

1981: confronting Libya in Gulf of Sidra

1983: invading Grenada
1986: invading Gulf of Sidra, Libya
1986: bombing Libya
1988: shooting down an Iranian airliner

1989: confronting Libya in Tobruk

1989–1990: invading Panama
1998: launching cruise missile attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan

2001–present: waging the Afghanistan War

2003–2011: waging the Iraq War

2011–2017: carrying out military operations in Uganda

[jt]

1947–1949: intervening in the Greek civil war
1947–1970: intervening in Italy's elections and supporting anti-communism activities
1948: supporting the anti-government forces in Costa Rica's civil war
1949–1953: supporting anti-communism activities in Albania
1949: intervening in the government change in Syria
1950–1953: waging the Korean War
1952: intervening in the Egyptian Revolution of 1952
1953: supporting a coup in Iran to overthrow the then Iranian government
1954: supporting the change of the then Guatemalan government
1956–1957: plotting a coup in Syria
1957–1959: supporting a coup in Indonesia
1958: creating a crisis in Lebanon
1960–1961: supporting a coup in the Congo
1960: stopping the government of Laos from starting a reform
1961: supporting the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba
1961–1975: supporting civil war and opium trade in Laos
1961–1964: supporting anti-government activities in Brazil
1963: supporting civil strife in Iraq
1963: supporting riots in Ecuador
1963–1975: fighting the Vietnam War
1964: intervening in the Simba rebellion in the Congo
1965–1966: intervening in Dominica's civil war
1965–1967: supporting the Indonesian military government’s massacre of communists
1966: supporting an insurgency in Ghana
1966–1969: creating conflicts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which is a region on the Korean peninsula that demarcates North Korea from South Korea
1966–1967: supporting an insurgency in Bolivia
1967: intervening in the change of the Greek government
1967–1975: intervening in Cambodia's civil war
1970: intervening in Oman's domestic affairs
1970–1973: supporting a military coup in Chile
1970–1973: supporting a coup in Cambodia
1971: supporting a coup in Bolivia
1972–1975: offering assistance to anti-government forces in Iraq
1976: supporting a coup in Argentina
1976–1992: intervening in Angola's domestic affairs
1977–1988: supporting a coup in Pakistan
1979–1993: supporting anti-government forces in Cambodia
1979–1989: intervening in the war in Afghanistan
1980–1989: financing the anti-government Solidarity trade union in Poland
1980–1992: intervening in El Salvador's civil war
1981: confronting Libya in Gulf of Sidra
1981–1982: pushing the change of the then Chadian government
1982–1984: participating in a multilateral intervention in Lebanon
1982–1989: supporting anti-government forces in Nicaragua
1983: invading Grenada
1986: invading Gulf of Sidra, Libya
1986: bombing Libya
1988: shooting down an Iranian airliner
1988: sending troops to Honduras
1989: confronting Libya in Tobruk
1989: intervening in the Philippines' domestic affairs
1989–1990: invading Panama
1990–1991: waging the Gulf War
1991: intervening in Haiti's elections
1991–2003: leading the enforcement action to establish a no-fly zone in Iraq
1992–1995: intervening in Somalia's civil war for the first time
1992–1995: intervening in the Bosnian War
1994–1995: sending troops to Haiti
1996: supporting a coup in Iraq
1997: sending troops to Albania
1997: sending troops to Sierra Leone
1998–1999: waging the Kosovo War
1998: launching cruise missile attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan
1998–1999: sending troops to Kenya and Tanzania
2001–present: waging the Afghanistan War
2002: sending troops to Côte d'Ivoire
2003–2011: waging the Iraq War
2004–now: inciting wars between Pakistan and Afghanistan in their contiguous areas
2006–2007: supporting Fatah, a Palestinian political and military organization, in overthrowing the elected government of Hamas
2007–present: intervening in Somalia's civil war for the second time
2009: supporting a coup in Honduras
2011: supporting anti-government forces in Libya
2011–2017: carrying out military operations in Uganda
2014–present: leading the intervention actions in Iraq
2014–present: leading the intervention actions in Syria
2015–now: supporting Saudi Arabia's participation in Yemen's civil war
2019: supporting the change of the Venezuelan government

[afeng]

First, establish diplomatic relations with Taipei, if you DARE!

[Andy-P]

They both agree Taiwan will not peaceably join the mainland. Now both Democrats & Republicans have dropped 'One China' policy. If things get worse in China, then 'caring' what the outside world will count for less.

[geoinvest]

"I just watched a movie ..." Oh?!

[GloxGlox-nlcd]

Australian allies could be useful in so many ways.