Understanding The Roots Of The Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Amrita Narlikar | Raisina Dialogue 2024

Raisina Dialogue 2024 | Back to the Future: A New Era of Conflict in Europe? | Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine plunged Europe into conflict, new defence, security, and diplomatic endeavours have begun across the continent. Twentieth-century security arrangements like NATO are being reinvigorated, and the transatlantic alliance appears more important than ever. The Global South, meanwhile, is hesitant to become a party to another European conflict and is instead seeking ways to mitigate its spill-over effects. Most importantly, the EU and its member states are re-evaluating themselves as military, security and geopolitical players.

Two years into the war, what has changed? Who is winning, who is losing, and who is surviving?

How have players—from the US to China, Europe, the Russian Federation, and NATO—shifted their strategy and positioning?

How can an enlarged EU enhance its security in a world increasingly defined by US-China geopolitical competition?

What role can countries like those in the Nordic-Baltic region play in this endeavour?

Is Ukraine doomed to be a forever war? Do hopes for a conclusion rest on the US elections, and does the EU have a backup plan if transatlantic solidarity frays?

How can developing countries make decisions that similarly protect their national interest, autonomy, and security? As the Global South emerges, will they propose norms and principles that all can adhere to?

Speakers:
Krišjānis Kariņš, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Latvia
Luminița Odobescu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Romania
Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Estonia
Iryna Borovets, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine
D. Bala Venkatesh Verma, Former Ambassador of India to Russia, India

Moderator:
Amrita Narlikar, Honorary Fellow, Darwin College, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

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[gbhatia]

During German reunification negotiations, on Feb 9, 1990, the US secretary of state, James Baker had declared: If united Germany remained in NATO, there will be no extension of NATO jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east. NATO General Secretary Woerner on 17 May 1990 also confirmed the same approach.
The 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine & Russian Federation had mutual commitment not to use their territory to harm the security of each other. Ukraine violated this treaty in 2002 with Presidential declaration to join NATO.

The 2015- Minsk Agreement signed by Ukraine guaranteed autonomy to its Russian speaking Donbas, keeping this region demilitarized as prerequisite for Ukrainian sovereignty till Russian border. This agreement was also sabotaged by Ukraine egged on by the US. Zelensky is now stuck up losing 20pc of his territory despite rapid pumping of over $200 Bn by the US & its NATO allies.
Russia has seen massive invasions every century through its most susceptible warmer Ukrainian border losing 2.5 million men in WW2 alone.
It is a US proxy war for Zelensky but existential war for Russia.

A divided Ukraine cannot become Article 5 guaranteed member of NATO & a divided buffer country which not only keeps enemy (NATO) away but also provides secure, annexed land corridor to Russia's national borders can become the best guarantor of Russia's national security. Any price Russia may pay now will be worth trillions for the benefit of its posterity.
This war has only one end result : Destruction & division of Ukraine, serious economic & social consequences for EU.

With US resources stretched in Ukraine & Gaza War and if China takes advantage to annex Taiwan, it will reduce US status to only Atlantic power of WW2 vintage.
“Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era, ” the former US ambassador to Moscow & foreign policy doyen George F. Kennan had warned US in The New York Times in 1997. With formation of Sino-Russian alliance that prophecy will come true.

[sharan]

India’s Ambassador gave the Best assessment. 👍🏽🇮🇳

[rajat]

That Dr Chapman went on a 'I'll get back at him' fury and Ambassador Verma's reply was succinct!

[Life_Is_Yog]

Why there is no any Russian view in this panel???

[sharan]

Europe needs to stop complaining. 27-30 countries against 1. It’s not a fair fight, I think. Whatever we have read that this War between goes back to 2004 and not 2022.🇮🇳

[Wilson]

Given the title, I thought this is a serious discussion, till I saw the speaker list... a clown show basically. India is the only moderate view here. Disappointed with the organizer.

[ScaryTimeTravel]

Get some Russian panelists or what's the point

[notguilty.]

Title should be Peddling anti Russian narrative 😂