Pilot Blog | Update on Crash of Jeju B737 at Muan | Crew was in a Rush | Long Landing | Why no Gear?

Here I just the know fact and only my opinion about the Crash. There are many questions that could not be answered at this point so we need more data and investiogation team will find out what happened.

A Jeju Boeing 737-800, registration HL8088 performing flight 7C-2216 from Bangkok (Thailand) to Muan (South Korea) with 175 passengers and 6 crew, landed on Muan's runway 19 at about 09:03L (00:03Z) with all gear up, overran the runway sliding on fuselage and engines, impacted a concrete fence about 300 meters (1000 feet) past the runway end and burst into a fireball. Two people have been rescued alive, 120 bodies have been recovered, there are no hopes for more survivors.

Muan's Fire Fighters reported the malfunction of the landing gear, likely caused by a bird strike, prompted a go around. The aircraft then attempted another landing in adverse weather conditions. However, the exact cause needs to be determined by a following joint investigation.

Authorities reported two survivors, a male and female, both cabin crew, were rescued alive with mid to serious injuries from the tail of the aircraft.

South Korea's Ministry of Transport reported there were several issues including bird strike and landing gear malfunctions, they will thoroughly investigate to find out the causes. The ministry later added, a bird strike warning had been issued at 08:57L about 6 minutes prior to the crash, about one minute after the bird strike warning the crew declared Mayday at 08:58L while on final approach to runway 01, tower cleared the aircraft to land on opposite runway (19), the aircraft crashed 5 minutes after declaring Mayday. The flight data recorder has been recovered, the cockpit voice recorder is yet to be recovered.

A ground observer reported that the aircraft flew through a flock of birds, two or three pop-sounds were heard as if the birds were ingested into engines, flames were seen from the right hand engine. The aircraft climbed a little but seemed to be unable to climb further and landed opposite direction. When the aircraft overflew the observer, it had the landing gear down.

The hospital reported one of the flight attendants suffered a fractured shoulder and head injuries, but was conscious and was able to walk.

ADS-B data received from the airplane ceased at 900 feet at 08:58L (23:58Z Dec 28th) while on approach to runway 01 - previous flights were received until the transponder was switched off at the apron. The videos show the aircraft was skidding on runway 19 before impacting the concrete fence.

[loglogg]

The mainstream Korean media always floods reports with emotional coverage instead of providing rational analyses of accidents, and I'm tired of it. It's sad that, even for accidents that happen in Korea, I have to search YouTube in English to find videos that follow a proper reasoning process to uncover the exact cause.

[sagittarius_]

No, Denys, you are NOT "just a guy with a microphone" - you and Juan on Blancolirio are now the top class analyzers of air accidents bcs you are experienced specialists of these airplanes!
I am very very impressed.👏👏👏

[thekennethofoz]

I appreciate your expert opinion, and your warning that we have to wait for the official findings before making judgment.

[pphysics]

Korean-Canadian here. Thanks for the updates on the bizarre and terrible accident. The developing narratives here in Korea are:
1. The focus on the robust, dirt-covered reinforced concrete base for the localizer is now emerging in public media, only after international experts like you brought up the subject. The bulk of the blame being presented is the bird strike or the landing gear failure of B737-800, citing recent emergency landings of KL1204 and AC2259.
2. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Land & Transportation was defensive about the barrier for the localizer, citing that there are identical structures in other minor airports in Korea and that "no regulations exist" about them. I would like to see all such robust establishments replaced as soon as possible.
3. Some are blaming the pilots for landing in the reverse direction, unnecessarily risking the crash into the barrier. But I think this is absurd, since runways are supposed to enable landing in either direction...? And the pilots could not have predicted that the barrier was made of reinforced concrete, hidden beneath the dirt. Very tragic.
4. There is a political controversy surrounding the naming of the accident: "Jeju Airline disaster" or "Muan Airport disaster". The public media is mostly citing it as Jeju Airline disaster, out of fear of public stigma on the location and the infrastructure of the airport. The local population has historically supported (over 80%) the opposition party rooted in the 1980 Democratic Movement in Gwangju that managed to impeach the president and his acting president over a failed emergency martial law in early December, but the political turmoil in Korea is far from over.

[michel]

This looks unfortunately like a classic alignment of holes in slices of Swiss cheese. The plane was about to land when it hit a flock of birds (hole 1). The pilot had a split second to decide if he should proceed with landing or go-around to address problems and try again. He cautiously elected to go-around (hole 2). That led to the retraction of the landing gear (hole 3). There was probably a sense of urgency caused by alarms signalling a serious problem with the right engine (hole 4). That could explain why they stopped the wrong engine (hole 5). With not enough thrust to go-around, the pilot had to land the plane immediately (hole 6) with no time to lower the landing gear (hole 7). Without thrust the plane became a glider and was affected by vortices causing a ground effect which would make it glide too far on the landing strip (hole 8). The spoilers were likely armed but didn't open because the landing gear wasn't lowered (hole 9). The left engine having been stopped, there was no thrust reverser on that side (hole 10). Combining the gliding, the absence of landing gear, breaks, spoilers and thrust reverser on one engine, it was clear the plane would overshoot at high speed like a bar of soap on a wet surface (hole 11). Finally that mound built over a reinforced concrete wall stopped the plane (hole 12), killing nearly everyone on board. It wasn't their lucky day.

[OliviaBry]

You're my new favorite analyzer. Also, I have some information for you concerning the "wall." A Korean local joined the Sun (news) YouTube channel and covered the wreckage/recovery live all day. He stated in the discussion that the reason the localizers were on such a strong structure was storms. They had previously been damaged by a typhoon, and they wanted to be prepared for the next one. I'm not sure if this is real, but he appeared like a very sincere person when he helped with Korean translations in chat. Thank you for your calm, careful, and informative reporting. You and Juan Brown (Blancholiro) are blessings in a world of chaos.

[retrovideoquest]

Love how Blancolirio (James Browne) and you recommend each other's channels. Both are indeed the best reference for aviation accidents in YouTube.

[leokimvideo]

I'm pretty sure the biggest problem going on was panic in the cockpit. In such a rush we can all assume the checklists were thrown out the window

[DireConsenquences]

Ppl in Korea are really unhappy with how long it's taking to identify the bodies. I'm pretty sure that trying to put any identity to bits of human charcoal and random chunks of flesh is going to take a while. I don't think these people understand just how violent the impact was, and that if it's taking a while to identify the bodies, it's probably because there wasn't much 'body' left to begin with.

And it's not like I don't understand their pain, I do. But the investigators and the coroners I am sure are working as hard as they can to get the bodies back to their family members. When you're working with something as bad as this, it's going to take a while.

[Jessman]

I literally trust your words way more than any of those "experts" on national media in germany. Thank you for your insights and explanations!

[yourbittertruth]

I like your phrase, birds are birds, we started flying after them. Thats uncontested fact. 😁

[bc-guy]

One of your best episodes ever Denys. Your personal opinions are VERY valued, to me.
I see there is already a Part 2 to this series. I'll be heading there next.
Excellent job.

[steeloisgombo]

As a Korean, this accident is truly tragic. It is truly regrettable that the government took the measure of pouring reinforced concrete under the localizer to save on the cost of localizer maintenance due to typhoons. It is a national disgrace to have taken such a dangerous measure at Muan Airport to save a few pennies.

[starmaker]

7:56
Korean here.
The aircraft made its return to incheon due to an urgent medical situation onboard. I could confirm it on a online press called aviationsourcenews.
I believe that the return had nothing to do with the crash.
It is very sad to see my country go through so much things at once.
Thank you for giving us an objective view of the crash, which many medias are failing to do so.

[wokedonkey]

This analysis is really excellent. My new favourite channel

[The__Assassin]

I think they must have shut down the wrong engine after the bird strike. Because the thrust reverser didn't deploy on #1 engine, but it did on #2, the one that had the compressor stall. And when possibly the right engine malfunctioned or started producing less thrust, they felt there was no choice but to land as soon as possible, even with no flaps or gear. Or they could have simply forgotten to extend them as there was no time to perform checklists and they might have thought the airplane was configured as they'd already done it before they decided to go around. My heart goes out to all who lost their lives and their loved ones.

[blueyonder]

I like this "guy with a microphone". What he says makes a lot of sense.

[Asiansxsymbol]

As an aviation expert from many flights as a customer, I can concur everything this guy says is true.

[htewing]

As soon as I saw blancolirio point out that the left reverser didn't deploy, my immediate thought was that they shut down the wrong engine. Especially since it seems like they rushed to get on the ground. With the information we have now I think it's the most reasonable hypothesis

(Also, I just found your channel via his from the Azerbaijani crash, coincidentally!)

[chipbug]

The plane looks like it was flyable. Why they decided not to circle around a bit longer to assess the situation first would be the key to understand about this crash.