Update on Azerbaijan E190 Air Crash | Did Russian ATC forced flight to divert to Aktau, Kazahstan?

Yes, I speculate for now but I am sure about my version about a Russian missile because we already have evidence.

An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190, registration 4K-AZ65 performing flight J2-8243 from Baku (Azerbaijan) to Grozny (Russia) with 62 passengers and 5 crew, had diverted from Grozny to Aktau (Kazakhstan) due to weather and attempted an emergency landing on Aktau's runway 11 at 11:28L (06:28Z) about one hour after the aborted approach to Grozny. The aircraft was turning onto final approach but impacted ground off the runway and caught fire. Rescue services were able to rescue 32 people alive. 4 bodies were recovered so far.

Kazakhstan's Transport Ministry reported 62 passengers and 5 crew were on board of the aircraft, 32 were rescued alive. 4 bodies have been recovered.

The airline reported there were 62 passengers (37 Azerbaijani, 16 Russian, 6 Kazakh and 3 Kyrgyz citizens) and 5 crew on board. The aircraft made an emergency landing about 3km (1.6nm) from Aktau's Airport. A hotline has been established. The airline published a list with the names of the occupants.

Kazakhstan's Health Services report, 28 survivors were taken to hospitals, 7 of them are in intensive care.

Due to GPS jamming and spoofing in the region existing radar data do not tell the true flight path and can not be used to analyse the aircraft's problems

[acefighterpilot]

I used to be a mechanic on the E170 and E190. They are very well built aircraft and I'm not at all surprised that the airplane survived the initial explosion, nor that some passengers survived the crash. Brazil should be very proud of Embraer, sadly no passenger aircraft is strong enough to survive a missile attack.

[MartinMcMartin]

So it wasn't geese made of tungsten?

[tubistify]

As a retired Captain with many thousands of hours on the 737, A320 and A330 I can say this is an excellent explanation of what happened, along with the previous video. The Russian system is failing in many areas, and more than usual. The ILS out of service at Russian airports would have meant a degrade to the NDB approach with much higher visibility requirements. Sending the EMB190 away to Aktau would be logical then as the best option if the EMB pilots were asked if they could reach Aktau. The pilots could not know the extent of their issues except with what they are confronted with in the cockpit and their controls. They may have had hydraulics at the time of talking to ATC but with the fluid leaking out under pressure that would disappear as they transited to Aktau.

[janniemeyer]

Good to have an informed explanation by a pilot who know those airports and conditions

[moonasha]

the pilots are such heroes. Not only did they save lives, they managed to get the aircraft somewhere where an actual investigation will occur. I trust Kazakhstan, they have no love for Russia, Russians almost demographically replaced them in their own country, tried to replace their language, ruin it with cyrillic, etc.

[frankbumstead]

Your Information is the most accurate, and I worked in the UK Military Airport environment for 35 years. Well done.

[bendyrland]

Thank you for the speedy corrections and clarifications to your previous story. Great reporting on this unfortunate situation.

[cedriclynch]

A few weeks before the MH17 shooting down, I was on a Jet Airways flight from Mumbai to London. The passenger information system showed that the aircraft was passing over the Donetsk area from east to west. I was thinking "should we be here? I don't think so". At the time of the shooting down, there were Jet Airways and Air India aircraft nearby. I think some other airlines were also passing over the area regularly until the disaster.

[deepinthewoods]

Denys is such a decent man. This is the most 'kind' interpretation towards Russia, just exposing Russian imcompetence and downplaying far-fetched conspiracy theories. A true gentleman ...

[scoobysnax]

Dude, you are a hero. Your Video yesterday was brilliant. (a small fog mistake.) But the rest was 100% correct. I saw many blogs yesterday that were quoting your channel & Blanco's. So brilliant work!

[miwkatv]

In Azerbaijan, it was announced on local media and TV. Here, in my country (Azerbaijan) everything is controlled by the government. There is no way someone on national TV to blame Russia for not allowing the plane to land in their territory. They absolutely know this fact and the government allowed them to talk about this. Otherwise, the speaker would be arrested...

[commerce-usa]

Trusting the major news sources to get anything right early on is almost always a terrible idea. Denys, thank you, as always, for your terrific insights into aviation and for covering this terrible event.

[patrickchase]

If there _was_ a forced diversion to Aktau it may have been a blessing in disguise for the targeted aircraft (though the Russians couldn't possibly have known that at the time). The terrain in Chechnya is substantially rougher than around Aktau, and the fact that it came down on the dead-flat Kazakh coast may account for the survival of the people in the rear of the aircraft. And as you say the weather was better.

[NasehBdlov]

10:52 One of the cabin crew members gave an interview a couple of hours ago, revealing he was injured by shrapnel that penetrated the plane and mentioned hearing two loud bangs before the decision to divert. There are also videos showing injured passengers. It's hard to believe the pilots thought this was just a bird strike, considering the circumstances.

[nilswedin]

I think the maneuverability deteriorated over time. Some hydraulic system working at the beginning of the flight over the sea. The pugoid oscillations came at the end when probably the oil ran out. So in the rearview mirror an emergency landing in bad weather may have been better as the aircraft was controllable. But that's my guess.

[Gscalenut]

Why did the aircraft depart Baku for Grozny on a relatively short duration flight time given that:
1) poor weather and no ILS on runway at destination
2) reported drone activity at destination
3) electronic jamming with loss of GPS at destination

[TraciPearson-oktr]

Thank your for this update. *So* much better than the U.S. news media!

[gasad]

the plane went down due to a bird strike, it was just a big metal bird that was propelled by a rocket engine and filled with explosives and shrapnel

[JasonBlack]

Oh no. im so sad to hear the pilots died. Amazing skilled Pilots. I am a Private pilot, and I can not imagine fighting my plane with damage for an hour or more. it would have been terrifying.

[MarcosSanchess]

Correction on 1:40, the CENIPA is not the aircraft's manufacturer, it is an accident investigation and prevention central body for Brazil.