China's Economic Rise Has Ended US Dominance with Warwick Powell

Interview recorded - 3rd of October, 2024

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Warwick Powell. Warwick as an Adjunct Professor at the Queensland University of Technology working at the intersection of China, digital technologies, supply chains, financial flows and global political economy & governance.

During our conversation we discussed China's rise, the current US-China relationship and how this has evolved, why China hasn't become more democratic, recent economic challenges, end of US Hegemony, recent fiscal stimulus and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:44 - Current US-China relationship and how has it got to this stage?
6:40 - When did trade tensions begin?
12:16 - Why has China not changed?
14:58 - What is China after?
19:52 - Impact of Real Estate markets?
32:31 - Can manufacturing capacity continue to grow?
39:40 - What influences West’s tariffs?
46:23 - Move to multipolar influence
54:58 - Picking geopolitical sides?
57:38 - Chinese fiscal support?
1:06:33 - Future support to be iterative
1:09:37 - One message to takeaway from conversation?

​​Warwick began his career in academia, teaching Chinese history and European cultural history at Griffith University. He graduated with First Class Honours and is the recipient of the prestigious University Medal for Academic Excellence. Warwick was also awarded a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade scholarship to undertake postgraduate studies at People’s University, Beijing. He deferred his studies to begin work for Kevin Rudd in the Queensland Government.

He is the chairman and founder of Sister City Partners Limited, a not-for-profit investment bank focusing on developing links between regional Australia and the markets of Asia. Through this work, Warwick has experience in diverse industries including cattle and sheep production and processing, information and communication technology, infrastructure, energy, natural resources, travel and tourism and property development.

He is a director of a number of funds management companies responsible for funds established under an ASIC-approved Australian Financial Services License. He is a member of the Central Highlands Accelerate Agribusiness Advisory Board and was the founding Treasurer of Innovation NQ Inc., a not-for-profit innovation incubator in North Queensland.

He continues to teach professional courses in areas such as innovation, creativity, regional economic development and blockchain technology with James Cook University, QUT and Edith Cowan University.

Warwick Powell:

WTFinance -

[jmartin]

This was a very good was very insightful!!!

[scu]

When you keep on focussing on war and creating conflicts around the world, that is what will happen. The who whole world is so sick of the US and its foreign and economic policy

[EclipseEditzx]

I told you so… US is weakening. China has its own issues but US is on the decline

[LipingKong-mszm]

You have chosen a great speaker. In my opinion, really the West needs to consciously make more efforts to get😮 to know the East. Obviously, there is a huge difference, both in terms of culture and economic aspects. Only when you know your counterparts well, you can develop effective ways of doing business with them.

[charlesyang]

The secret in Chinese model of democracy is "select and elect" in all fields of governance including politics up to national level where selection must come first and people qualified for being selected to lead is not by popularity but by the experience, expertise and merit whoever this person presented in the past. This system had been passed down for centuries in China history as is publicly well perceived and highly respected as “meritocracy”.

[PhilipWong]

The concept of being a superpower reflects the Western scarcity-driven, win-lose mindset. At the same time, much of the Eastern worldview (excluding Japan) embraces abundance and win-win cooperation. Pursuing superpower status is costly and unnecessary in a framework focused on shared growth and collaboration.

Scarcity-driven win-lose strategies reflect a narrow, short-term view that assumes limited resources and competition are necessary. In contrast, abundance-driven win-win strategies align with a broader, long-term perspective, recognizing that collaboration leads to greater and more sustainable rewards in a vast, interconnected universe. The universe offers ample opportunities for mutual growth, making win-win strategies more effective in the long run.

[Đờimitry]

Australian cities actually needs more development and houses. Houselessness is everywhere. USA actually moved their industries to overseas like Aus way before they moved their labor intensive industries to China, so why haven't Aus develope much ? Still cant even manufacture bicycles for own consumption. Just talk and barking when USA tells it to.

[charlesyang]

The mere fact is South East Asia countries had been co-existed and cohabitated with China for centuries and had never been invaded by China for an inch of land. Instead they goes up and down in line with the cyclic fate of China dynasties. The bottom line is dispute between countries is inevitably unavoidable, yet Chinese chooses to settle thru negotiation whilst Western powers by gun, and this is the fundamental difference not well known by Asian countries until the arrival of colonizer starting 15 century. A recent poll (published April 2024) conducted by ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute funded primarily by department of Education of Singapore shown over 50 percent S.E. Asian people favor China than American in popularity.

[timoshea]

A very interesting channel. Thanks Anthony 🙂

[linus]

Great conversation! Must have Warick back!❤

[yaoliang]

The US is never interested in the political systems of other countries as long as they remain weak, obedient and is unable to pose the slightest challenge to their absolute world dominance.
If they are interested in spreading human rights n democracy, they would not have chosen Saudi Arabia, which is the most autocratic country of be one of their biggest ally

[craigrik]

... did you just cut out Warwicks output stats? He's mentioned them before, China's manufacturing output for export 1995-2005 was 15%, 17% 2006-2014 and its back to around 15%. Meaning, 15% of all manufacturing output in China, is exported, the rest of the 85% is consumed in China!!!

[charlesyang]

Multipolarity has been a Chinese belief for centuries traceable back to 2, 000 BC. This can be evidenced by for the first time PRC propose “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” during Bandung (Indonesia) Conference 1955 after nation state PRC founded 1949. This is the onset of modern time concept of multipolarity under Westphalian sovereignty system post WW II, except China only recently gain momentum, assisted by and implemented thru BRICC and SCO …etc, to wage its influence thru economic, geopolitical power to materialize this concept into solid ground.

[LipingKong-mszm]

Sometimes, we can not draw the line between friends and enemies so easily or clearly. In some aspects, the differences are greater than cooperation, in others, perhaps overlapping, existing great opportunities of working together. Times are the essence. We must be able to face realities.

[cammm]

yep, Warwick is right, the deindustrialization of the US started in the late 70s, aka the Rust Belt. The Racist One percent used China as a scapegoat, and most Americans, being also racist, bought into this propaganda. Rust belt really rusted under Ronnie Raygun, like Thacher, Ronnie Raygun started the process of turning toward a Finacial center instead of being an industrial power just like Britain was doing. To be fair to Reagan, the US industry could build anything, everything they built was crap.

And what do you want China to change into a vassal state with no sovereignty, just ask any of the G-7 and they will answer back, how high should I jump. So don't blame China wanted to be independent just like our founding fathers. So many of us Americans forgot all about that. it is about domination in order to enjoy the wealth of others.

[charlesyang]

Trade imbalance between US and China must also take into account two factors in parallel to only import/export of goods that includes a)surplus in service sector such as bank, finance & legal firm, insurance, VC earning/dividend …etc that are NOT reckoned into existing cross border trade formula, and b)US self-imposed export ban on US-made or US-designed high dollar value and high end industrial goods (AI chips stands out first in line). Powell is exactly right to say US lawmaker pointing fingers at China trade deficit thru additional tariff and sanctions is not a correct approach to solve and manage bilateral relationship, but seeking cooperation is. Yet this is highly unlikely to happen any time soon considering prevailing Sinophobia built around American society.

[gryblk]

The emperor has no clothes. But is the West a real economy or just a hyper-financialized casino?

[SurendarGRao]

You should pay attention to your guests when they are talking to you. You seem to be distracted, elsewhere and not present in the conversation! You need to engage by listening actively with mindfulness! Thank you! He is a great guest. It felt like he was wasting his time talking to emptiness.

[patrickgz]

china seem to have taken a methodical step by step approach. china's hrs policy focused on rural development, modernizing agriculture and encouraging cottage industries, creating excess rural workforce who can then be diverted to sezs. it setup and heavily invested in sez infrastructure with strict fdi framework that foreign investors just could not overlook. think they started with 4 sez initially and expanded it to 16. she used the sukou system to basically create an economic dualism, the rural and urban to delicately balance its social makeup and development between rural and urban. cant tel if they learned and adjusted along the way or it was planned from onset. if it was planned, who were involved i wonder.

[mskmsk]

That heading is a total joke. The U.S. is still way out in front.