Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit, revisited

At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period.

Speakers:

Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent
Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe
Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government
Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics
Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe

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[evd]

Why is the first speaker in such an echoing room???? dont be so naive about technique!!

[chrisdickson]

I cant believe how impracticval these poeple are. Because I choose not to live in a silo, I listen to things like these, however I cringe at all the things they consistently leave out.

They never talk about how the currency fluctuations between the UK and the EU effect things. The pound has fallen against the Euro by 18 % since the referendum and the average WTO tariff for us is 3.85 %. meaning we are still very competitive.
They never talk about how the EU market is consistently and steadily shrinking, and has shrunk 35 % in the last 25 years, while the actual EU market has grown 2.5 times, in terms of population. I dont know how they, or anyone can say that is good.
They never mention that only 8 % of companies sell to the EU, nor do they mention that less than 8 % of our GDP goes to the EU as manfactured goods. Nor do they ever say by how much they think exports are going to fall under WTO rules and if they think UK companies are not going to sell £ 100 k of goods to the EU because someone in the export department is going to have to spend an extra two mintues with the paperwork . . . do me a favour. I've been an export sales manager for an engineering firm and it isnt going to happen.
They never talk about, how, in about 10 years, if we stay on track, our export sales to North America (US and Canada) are likely to overtake our export sales to the EU, IF WE STAYED IN THE EU. Just a quick glance at the sales charts confirms this - it should be quicker if outside.
They never talk about the huge indirect costs of being in the EU. While they were all flapping around arguing about the direct costs (cash) of £ 350 m a week, they completely ignored the indirect costs of the EU on the UK economy, which there is every argument to claim they are 8 or 10 times greater.
They complety ignore 'import substitution' and 'export substitution' ( both positively benefit the UK economy), and also ignore the uplift from improved productivity, due to lower material costs, lower energy costs (due to the carbon floor) and the decreased level of EU regulartory restraint.

I have never heard of remainers talk abou the risks of staying in the EU. The Target Two level is currently around 1 Trillion euro, which we would be on the hook for some of it.

Onwards, outwards and upwards