Ukraine: military situation with maps October 18, 2022

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Summary: No major changes.

Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

[maximillianschonhausen]

The 31st has also appeared – sister unit of 11th VDV Brigade. Alongside 137th VDV regiment (106th division) it was deployed with the Wagner group at Bakhmut – by which I mean the sector Zaitseve – Bilhorivka. Although called ”Wagnerites” both in social and other media they are openly wearing their tactical markings and VDV equipment (the 137th also wearing their armpatches, the centaurish thingy). The 137th took heavy losses in early september and I have seen no trace of them since but the 31st is still operating there.

The highest estimate (UK) of the Wagner group number of employees in theatre is at around 5000 men, though not all are employed as combat troops. Many of them are tasked with the training of other troops – a task in which they cooperate with the VDV. Estimates of employees killed in theatre so far ranges from 1300 (US) to 3000 (UK). It is probably reasonable to think of the company as a strong brigade (Russian terms). Of the total number, somewhere between 300 and 350 are former prisoners recruited in the recent campaign. They have gotten a lot of media attention, obscuring the fact that more than 5000 prisoners have been pressed into regular army service, not volunteering.

There are other powerful units at Bakhmut not visible on your map. The 27th brigade is there, which is still strong enough to field four battallions (be they very small ones) – it is them you see on clips operating T-90 and BMP-3. No other units has these in the sector. They are also normally called ”Wagnerites”. We xan also clearly see T-72B3s there and these belong to 144th and 150th divisions, both operating in the sector and of these the 144th still has tactical markings (150th usually does not). And we see a lot of footage of the 45th engineers, or Izium fame.

So quite strong forces at Bakhmut and not just PMC. These are in turn supported by separatists who are the ones performing the frontal assaults, mainly territorial battalions of conscripts that rotate in and out but the 14th ”Prizrak” has been around since June at least, participating in operations. The profesional separatist element comes exclusively from the 6th (”Cossack”) and although reduced time and again, and long since mostly conscript, they are puzzlingly motivated still. These guys are the cannon fodder nonetheless, enabling the incessant assaults in this sector.

Since the line here is static, the Russian army functions – if only just. There is a constant artillery bombardement of the type we saw before (”hammer”) and the UAF seems to be deploying no modern systems here to eliminate it. Being statis, the Russian EW actually works and constantly knocks out UAF communications, and makes use of battlefield drones all but impossible. Also the Russian air defence actually functions – although they are crap even when turned on. But making the airspace impossible to operate in.

The Russians are not capable of launching attacks of greater scale than two companies - in practice often meaning some 60-80 guys and a few AFV. More normally they attack with one company - 30 or so guys. The daily reports we get of attacks are mostly just artillery strikes. Only occasionaly does it involve infantry - such as September 10-13, and so on. Infantry can also get involved because of the proximity of positions - firefights erupts simply because they are a mere fifty or hundred yards apart. The Russians can also not operate with combined arms and so attacks normally takes turns. Artillery, then AFV, then infantry - more often than not firing at eachother. So attacks are very small and highly ineffective, breakthrough is made impossible by lack of critical mass and exploitation is impossible due to lack of combined arms capability. We will thus be seeing this - as we have for four months now - inching forward one yard at a time. As at Pisky, and as one can see on all clips and photos, it is again a WWI landscape there.

The UAF has five brigades operating in that same area, rotating elements in and out and so by no means having five brigades in the line. They are thus outnumbered for a change, and outgunned the way they used to be everywhere. In social and other media every passing cow in Donbas is called a Wagnerite but they face a much more formidable force than just this PMC. It is so by choice, the UAF obviously not prioritising the sector. For reasons undisclosed, ripe for speculation.

[nerdymcnerdface]

It seems that a static front favors Russia since they can methodically destroy Ukraine's infrastructure while the UAF cannot do the same to Russia.

[psyke]

There's 3 channels I watch for my daily updates on the war, from serious to light-hearted. Yours is the serious one. Thank you for providing unembellished facts. It's important to acknowledge unpleasant truths, and to not underestimate the enemy.

[kneeco]

The water supply for Crimea comes from the high side of the Nova Kakhovka dam. If the dam is destroyed, doesn't that cut off water to Crimea?

[jorgeramalho]

Very good informations every day. Thanks for it. P.S. If you could just pump up the volume a little bit it would be perfect. Thank you.

[michaelcarter]

For the the umptieth time PLEASE TURN THE VOLUME UP.. No its not my end. Some people like to listen while they work.

[alikyanuk]

Very informative. Can you highlight the borders of the various regions like kherson, donetsk, etc. ?

[maximillianschonhausen]

Your map here displays 35th, 15th and 57th Russian brigades in the Bakhmut area (Zaitseve-Bilhorivka). I don't believe any of them are there. Or ever were there. I’m not sure if you put them there as placeholders?

15th brigade (2nd Army, Central Front) is known for it's trail of atrocities, stretching from the murders in Peremoga (near Kiev) in February to the torture cellars in Novy Bykov (near Chernihiv). Even among Russians – pedophiles, rapists, thieves and murderers to a man – they stand out as particular swine. The brigade was reported as wiped out in june, by which time it had probably already been wiped out for a while as it appears to have been severely depleted in the Chernihiv fighting already. 2nd Army is at the Oskil Front - whatever might be left of it - and I don't think the 15th ever went South of Izium.

35th (41st Army, Central Front) is famed for being wiped out in their epic failure crossing the Sieverski Donets river in May. Before that famed for massive losses in the battles for Chernihiv. If the brigade was not dissolved after the failed crossings it was withdrawn from Ukraine, it has never appeared since. 41st Army is at the Oskil frontline.

Finally the 57th which is a bit of a mystery (5th Army, Eastern Front). I don’t think it is in Ukraine, nor ever was. It was rumoured to have been deployed to Belarus before the invasion but managed to stay out of sight during the abortive March offensive in the North. I have only ever seen it surface twice - once when the UAF claimed "personnel from the 57th brigade are active in Ukraine" in February and then in April when a Russian officer (Dubinin) fell near Sievierdonetsk city wearing the armpatch of the 57th. Apart from that - zip, and the brigade is not listed as officially deployed to Ukraine. The parent formation, 5th Army, is deployed near Cherson where it is supposedly deployed with the daughter units 127th Motor Rifle Division and 60th brigade. But no 57th.

Also listed on the map are separatist units 2, 4, 5, 7 and 100. This is the roster of the separatists more or less. Most of these were highly active in the fighting around Sieverdonetsk-Rubizhne but after June I have not seen any activity from them in the sector. I see that almost all mapmakers in the OSINT community has this roster – more or less – placed around there. Since they are in fact not there and are comparatively open about their whereabouts I imagine this is some copy-effect. Plus nobody reading Telegram from the combat officers of these units – they haven’t figured out what Opsec is yet.

So what? One might think. A brigade here or there, why bother. Thing is – following a war with no clue about deployments of available forces is like watching a tennis game where you can only see the net and one yard on each side of it. You see the ball when it comes but have no idea from where or how, nor where it is going or how it will be received. There is no possibility if trying to predict or analyze the game – or even retrospectively do the puzzle to figure out what happened and why. All you can do is watch the sky and wonder if it is going to rain, and other very general and very indirect matters of limited relevance for the game at hand. The channel is still called ”Ukraine: Military situation with maps” after all.

[jaredstaniland]

Thanks as always for your detailed work. 👍

[alexanderermakov]

While the battleground is quiet, probably, its time to update your big map?)

[richardlellip.e.m.b.a.]

Dima -- I don't think the dam will be blown up by either side -- as a licensed Mechanical Engineer and expert witness, my main concern would be the cooling ponds at the Nuclear Power Plant would be lowered and could cause a nuclear meltdown like Chernobyl or Japan -- The World would not let this happen.

[oceansailorboy]

And thank you so much for your very thought proviking l analysis
🙏🙏👍👍👍

[sk.]

2023 the western tanks have to go on the battlefield. Otherwise Ukraine will never get rid of Ruzzia. Only complete expulsion can lead to reparations.
I hope European leaders understand this.

[BugBorAT]

As always great job i espacially like how you are not making up some fantasy ofensives and other very weird stuff.

[pepe]

thanks mate. very informative as usual. i watch every day after work

[KrLe]

Can you talk about Russian Lancet drones ?
It seems they are highly capable and doing a lot of damage

[merocaine]

Two points, if they are increasing the manpower on the bridgehead that means they are confident of supplying them.
Second they are evacuatingvthe civilians from the city, they plan to turn it into a military fortress. They will no longer have to worry about feeding supplying or protecting 150000 civilians. If this is there plan, then they window of opportunity for the Ukrainians to take Kherson is shrinking fast, they need to move before that happens.

[earlygenesistherevealedcos]

Why would they hit the smaller substations (the branches) and not the trunk of the power grid? One answer is that they think those are less well defended. Another answer is that they plan to take all this territory once they have mobilized so they don't want the damage to be long-term or too hard to fix. Everything east of the Dniper let's say.

[waybackwhen]

Look after yourself, that is more important, no need to apologize…

[papertoweltheth]

What you are calling middle ground lasted for over 2 decades and now we are here. There is no middle ground anymore. There was never a question for Russia if to invade - they simply made the choice of doing it in 2014+2022 instead of, for example, 2030.