The Presidential Election Investing Cycle Theory Explained

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The Presidential Election Cycle Theory Explained:
The Presidential Election Cycle is an investing theory that gets brought up every four years or so within the United States. It states that the markets will perform worse in the first two years of a new presidential term due to sacrifices that the administration makes following a successful election. The last two years of the term are said to be much stronger for markets as the administration is doing everything they can to prop them up in the hopes of boosting their odds at getting reelected. But does this theory actually hold any water? Today we look at the history of the markets through the lens of presidential terms to find out.

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This is an interesting theory. I had never heard of it before. Great video as always!

ELIFI
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Awesome video, super informative as always. Thank you Daniel!

clohanmom
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Great explanation. I never heard of this until now.

KeithJones
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What about a dip leading up to Nov 4th and rebound by January? Is that consistent?

KS-mtlb
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Great video and explanation. So after the upcoming presidential election, the economy will go even further down for 2 years before recovering in the following 2 years.

thelearningbug
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Check out the Stock Trader's Almanac for an exhaustive analysis of this topic. Well worth the money. On page 130, they discuss the "Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle - the 186-Year Saga Continues. There are other reasons to buy the book as well - I love the calendar which notes the triple witching days, anniversaries of stock market crashes, and the months that perform the best vs. the worst. I take it all only somewhat seriously - as I do technical trading indicators - but still it is well worth knowing about. It is regularly mentioned on CNBC.

joygatewood
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Please ask but don't beg for likes and comments, Jesus. otherwise great video thank you.

jonathanmoffat