The Trump Economy - My Insane Stock Market Prediction For 2025

MARKET RETURNS:
As it turns out, the President (historically) has less of an impact on the market than most people think. Instead, the real deciding factor tends to be: Congress.

In this case, it becomes apparent that the highest historical returns come from (believe it or not) a divided Congress, where one party controls the House and the other controls the Senate. In this case, a Republican president - with a divided Congress, sees the highest returns of 13.7% - while a Democrat president isn’t too far behind, at 13.6%.

Beyond that, it seems as though a fully Republican congress (like we’ll soon have) yields the second highest returns, at 13% and 12.9% annually, regardless of who’s president, and the lowest returns come from a Republican President and a Democrat congress, at just 4.9%.

In terms of investing, the strongest returns also happen for those who invest early:

* If you invested $10K on Jan 1st of an election year, you had the best outcome 60% of the time.
* If you split the $10K into $1K each month of an election year, you had the best outcome 26% of the time.
* Finally, if you waited on the sidelines to invest after the election, you only had a 13% chance of coming out on top

SECTOR PERFORMANCE:
According to past performance, it's impossible to determine if one sector will outperform another based on who's in office. For example, During the Trump's 2016 presidency, “clean energy outperformed traditional energy by 43% per year. During the Biden presidency, traditional energy outperformed clean energy by 53% per year."

In terms of WHY this happens, an investment manager of Fidelity said: “It's exceedingly rare that a candidate will be able to deliver on exactly what they've proposed once they take office. If you're making investment decisions based on such proposals, that could be a risky way of managing one's money.”

STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN 2025:
Obviously, stocks and cryptocurrency have absolutely rallied on news of a Trump Presidency - BUT, I’d be cautious about whether those types of massive returns are sustainable.

That’s why, I’m a firm believer that it’s a lot more prudent to look at yourself, and ask: What can I do - as an individual - to improve my overall situation right now? Is that working overtime? Is it learning a new skill? Is it finding another job? Is it ensuring career stability? Is it cutting back expenses? Is it getting rid of useless overhead? Is it investing consistently?

All of these things will have a MUCH more significant impact than tax policy and the presidency.

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*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

[IamJonny-ov]

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and low a strategy with a long term edge.

[MaximilianFischer]

Trump's policies had been viewed by many experts as more positive for the financials sector, spurring this massive rally. It's enticing to consider purchasing some cryptos and stocks, I'm contemplating investing more than $300k. Thoughts?

[Hannahbenowitz]

AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make.

[CHRISTIAN-MYERS]

I'm ecstatic with Trump's victory and the year-end market surge. Which hidden jewels in the upcoming bull run would you buy with 150 grand right now? My goal is to position myself for a prosperous Q1 in 2025.

[gymenjoyer-yq]

The fact that nobody talks about the book Matrix Golden Cashflow Tactics, speaks volumes why people dont earn a lot of money..

[tonysilke]

Trump's policies had been viewed by many experts as more positive for the financials sector, spurring this massive rally. It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks, I'm contemplating investing more than $300k. Thoughts?

[findyourstay]

If this ends in continuously investing in an index fund…..🤣

[Brightenedrim]

I want to start re-distributing my portfolio into other asset classes with that in mind. I know Trump is more open minded to trying out new things. I'm thinking of sharing my portfolio of about 300k over different asset classes. Any recommendations?

[ClaudiaSchreiber-bp]

I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[phyllisburtonhearsawho]

I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially in this fourth quarter of 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I’m up 87% last year with a 7 figure portfolio well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place, Personally with insights from my FA Susan Kay Mack I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays.

[xtrapnation]

Bro did not just rick roll us in 2024...

[HaticeValerie]

I'm pleased about the year-end market spike. Which hidden gems in the forthcoming bull run would you buy with $150, 000 right now? My goal is to prepare myself for a prosperous first quarter in 2025.

[BoundMusic]

TLDR: nobody knows, market has gone up when either party was elected. Parties don't matter, worldwide events do

[MichaelGabreil]

Watching this Video is really an eye opener. And am so happy, The only little problem I have is, not knowing where to start from, I really want to invest in my future, but just don't know where to start from, I really wish someone can put me through

[NicholasBall]

I want to invest roughly $700, 000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?.

[Grace.h-to]

I'm set to make $600, 000 this year, and my net worth is north of seven figures, but I'm really worried. My portfolio has only grown 10% in the last five years, and I feel stuck. I desperately need to revamp my investments. Any advice on what to do with my money would be greatly appreciated.

[hardyfinancialcoaching]

I agree. Putting your hope in a President or someone in a political space to take care of your finances isn't smart. Be consistent, patient, diversified, and don't panic at every little blip in the market and you have greatly increased your chances of success.

[Aarrenrhonda]

A lot of news have been going on about a rally after the election, urging investors to watch out for stocks that would be experiencing significant growth. Any idea which stocks to put on my watchlist?

[Tonyrobs]

How do i make money from the market ? i want to redistribute around $200K stocks in my portfolio. what strategy should I use to maximize gains rn.

[cadrniadrctkers]

The fact that you have to explain the basics of our government is a statement on how ignorant the electorate even is.