3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

We increasingly make decisions based on short-term goals and gains -- an approach that makes the future more uncertain and less safe. How can we learn to think about and plan for a better future in the long term ... like, grandchildren-scale long term? Ari Wallach shares three tactics for thinking beyond the immediate.

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[Gameboob]

WOW. He's completely right about the technology-lens we use for the future. I never consider the future as anything but more and better technology. I forget to consider the broader cultural changes in art, values, morals, and whatever else there is...

That's a brilliant insight. The great historian Will Durant once wrote that all historians are plagued by lenses and biases of their time. This is THE MAJOR BIAS of ours.

[dlbattle]

Colonize the Milky Way within the next billion years has always been my goal.

[yoobinator]

I don't usually comment, but there's so much in what he said that i really feel needs to be spread. We're so cooped up in these few things, isolated from what we can achieve. This just really struck a chord with me. 😊

[edzeameh]

This I know would be one of the best Ted talk of the year.
He says in my own word; what happen after technology, cant we help the new generation to think future outside technology and produce a new age that would sound like "Infenica or Pronto Prefectima" which i define as a state of perfection where all would think to define a new level rather than to solve problems to create different forms of problems.

SWEET Talk - Ari Wallach. I love you

[Shawnmyrelle]

I almost started arguing in the comment section, then I realized that this man's presentation is equivocal. Instead of arguing, I'll point out a biblical concepts that his words line up with:

Hebrews 11:13 NIV
"All these people were still living by faith when they died. They did not receive the things promised; they only saw them and welcomed them from a distance, admitting that they were foreigners and strangers on earth."

The idea here is the prophets were uncertain of what would become of God's people- especially considering they were terribly disobedient. Rather than the prophets giving-in to short-termism, they pushed forward in obedience to God. Never even seeing the promises. Its somewhat depressing when thought about through the lenses of short-termism.

[DamKaKaDaNi]

The talk is mostly about us taking responsibility for our future instead of making short term solutions; or sandbag solutions if you will. I like it.

[GrogsWorld]

Planning for the future should be a larger part of our culture and our conversations. Let's start with leaving the planet a better place for our children and all future generations.

[habibaezzat]

i would've liked if there were more concrete examples or clear method of how to think very long term but yeah nice talk

[CrazyFanaticMan]

I would kill to have a crowd like that laugh at my stupid jokes

[olivergroning]

WOW... no useful information what so ever. It is like the advice "If you do not know what to do. Just do the right thing!". The question is not to acknowledge that long term problems need long term solutions. That is trivial. The question is how to implement structures that do not reward short-termism and do not penalize long-termism.
In Switzerland a project has been started 25 years ago (and has been completed last year) for 25 Billion dollars (3000 $ per capita, which means for the US it would be like a 1 Trillion $ Project). This project was to build two new rail passages through the alps. Not primarily to facilitate the traffic inside the country but through it. Connecting the north of Europe to the south, such as to reduce road transportation (mainly for goods). How was such a project possible? For Europe, payed by the Swiss. Started by politicians, which will be long retired before the project is even close to completion?
The answer is in part, that the responsibilities and merits are shared by a group of people, from different parties and who do not depend on reelection (which is almost automatic once you are in government and you do not screw up too much). This frees them (at least to some extend) from seeking short term recognition.

Incentives guide people. If you do not change incentives, talking of mind sets is futile. How else could you explain the farce, which is now called US politics.

[joannot]

One of the best TED I have seen so far

[biggiestud]

I really like the transgenerational thinking part, when we think about it, it really changes our perspective on our actions.

[brendarua]

This presentation was a joy and inspiring. We can only hope that politicians and business leaders take heart. But I don't see how they will when they only respond to the demands of stock holders and the body politic for the quick fix. Change has to come from the bottom up. For me the first step is to think about my kids. And yours. What kind of life do we want for them? Certainly not the fixation on their damn phones and social media.

This talk abut "Futures" is very handy in coming after the Elon Musk interview. His response to a question - actually a critique - about addressing immediate needs was long path. He said two things of note to me but both bracketed the notion of futures, of paths. First he said he's acting as a multiplier in the short term. He's putting in place infrastructure that will leverage work of others, work that will happen anyway. Second he looked at long term paths that humanity must move down to survive in the long term, but that are far from guaranteed. Becoming a space faring species was an example. And he's acting to improve the chances of them happening. I think this is a prime example of what Ari Wallach is talking about.

[GenJotsu]

I bet you a good amount of young people these days couldn't even be bothered to finish this insightful ~13 minute video.

[ozzyfromspace]

Great solutions scale. Great solutions also take time. You get out what you put in.

[nikitanikitov]

Grate talk. But I'm always thinking in this way.

[ineffablene]

I suspect that our struggle with long term planning is the result of our tendency to think linearly rather than exponentially, colliding with the inherently exponential nature of technology. Technology affects every aspect of how we live, and enables and empowers us to solve problems we couldn't even dream of solving before, but the ever accelerating rate of change means that our (linear) intuition about the future is becoming increasingly unreliable. IF THAT'S THE CASE, then Ari's suggestion in this talk, that we just plan further ahead, without addressing our inbuilt ineptitude in exponential thinking, would seem to me like something of a "sandbag strategy" itself... ironically.

[LuxiBelle]

The issue is that the people in charge only rule for the next 4 years or so. They only need to focus on the short term rather than 20 years down the line. Mind you, rulers for life aren't much better.

[legtit]

Long term goals can better serve you short term goals can just give you what you want in the moment

[AlphaFoxDelta]

I'd like to think 2016 isn't the peak civilization, no, not even on the scale yet. Very aware, super important talk.